that was established after world war two is, in one man,

Donald Trump.

He has made it, frankly, his singular foreign policy

aim to dismantle that global order

and he just doesn't like globalisation.

He doesn't like global institutions.

He does like internationalism.

But there's another issue in the man in that he is, as we all

know, a deal-maker, and he likes to deal bilaterally

with individual world leaders and has this strand

of authoritarianism in him.

He likes to deal with the strongmen -

Kim Jong Un; Erdogan in Turkey; Putin, obviously, in Russia.

These are men who can get things done like he thinks he can.

So he likes to deal with people who are traditionally

American foes in the international arena,

all of whom have been trying to undermine many

of these same institutions that have upheld

the liberal order for decades.

2020 will see few major changes here

in Russia, as the regime of President Vladimir Putin

enters his 21st year looking solid,

if not without challenges.

Economic growth will remain depressed by western sanctions

and tight government spending as Russian households continue

to feel the pinch.

That could result in more protests,

especially in major cities like Moscow.

However, where there will be major changes

is inside President Putin's ruling United Russia

party, which has been losing voters and candidates

in recent years.

With critical parliamentary elections in 2021,

the Kremlin knows it needs to overhaul that brand or face

trouble at the ballot box.

The year 2020 is meant to be a bright new dawn for Europe,

but the new European Commission under Ursula von

der Leyen charts a new direction for the EU.

But in reality, the weather is going to be a bit more like

this: grey, uncertain, a bit depressing because, actually,

Europe faces a year of drift and lack of leadership.

The EU actually is just as eager as Boris Johnson

to get Brexit done, but that's going

to be really tough because they're going to move straight

into very difficult trade negotiations under a very

tight deadline.

And the reality is that Brexit is

going to suck up a whole lot of energy,

both political and emotional.

In 2019, the Chinese economy grew at its slowest pace

in three decades.

Investment is growing much slower than before.

Inflation is now edging up, thanks

to the decimation of China's hog population

caused by African swine fever.

And thirdly, we've seen a record number

of defaults on China's enormous pile of debt

that is building up throughout the entire economy.

Now, in 2020, none of these factors are going away,

and the slowdown in the Chinese economy

is expected to continue.

Behind me is the epicentre of the Hong Kong protests that

have rocked this international financial centre for the last

eight months.

Those protests have been the biggest open rebellion

on Chinese soil in three decades.

The Communist party in Beijing is

showing no signs of backing down in the face of these protests.

The protesters are also showing no signs of backing down,

and as a result, in 2020, the crisis

is almost certain to continue and maybe even

worsen throughout the year.

Thanks to the US election, Moscow

knows that the anti-Russian rhetoric in Washington

is not going to end soon.

That means nobody here expects any let-up in sanctions in 2020

and even the possibility of new restrictions

against Russian businessmen, companies, and finance.

That will mean Moscow will continue

to shift trade payments and national wealth holdings out

of the dollar and also continue its pivot towards Asia,

the Middle East, and Africa in search of new partners

to replace the west.

The lack of high-level co-operation

between Moscow and Washington could also

imperil global arms agreements such as New START.

That, which, caps the number of nuclear warheads

held by both countries, will expire in early 2021

unless negotiations start soon.

The main reason to expect 2020 to be

a year of political disappointment in Europe

lies in the big national capitals.

In Berlin, the Merkel era is clearly coming to a close,

and the main political parties are now

preoccupied by internal struggles over ideology

and over leadership, and that's going

to make it very hard for Berlin to provide leadership

for the rest of Europe.

Meanwhile, in Paris, President Emmanuel Macron

has been struggling for a couple of years

to provide the European Union with new impetus

and new direction.

But he's in trouble too because the other European leaders

have not been as responsive as Mr Macron would like.

The Germans and others disagree with him

on issues such as the future of Nato and on Russia.

And also his prestige internationally

is suffering a little bit because he's

struggling at home to get reforms

through and in the face of big demonstrations

on the streets of Paris and elsewhere.

2020 could also be the year that Russia's most risky

overseas venture turns sour.

Moscow entered the Syrian Civil War

in 2015 and despite many claims of mission accomplished,

has found itself bogged down in the conflict.

Putin is engaged in a delicate diplomatic dance between

opposing neighbours - Iran, Turkey, Israel,

and the Syrian government itself.

2020 could be the year that the music stops,

and the Kremlin's recent run of luck in the Middle East

comes to an end.

That would likely force Moscow to make

a choice it has delayed for years, between President

Assad and peace.

Italy and Spain are also looking at a year

of highly unstable politics.

The Spanish government is struggling

with the secessionist movement in Catalonia,

and Spain has had four elections in four years that have failed

to yield a stable government.

Political uncertainty is nothing new for Italy,

but 2020 could see another government fall and the return

to government of Matteo Salvini, a populist nationalist

with very eurosceptic views that have not typically

been the ones that Italy have represented in Europe.

So put all of those national political situations together,

and you have a recipe for another year of drift

and political stasis in Europe in 2020.

The US and China have declared a truce in their trade war

that roiled the global economy in 2019.

Even what's been announced so far

could still fall apart in 2020, and getting

to a phase two or phase three of a much broader agreement

is going to be incredibly difficult.

If Donald Trump is re-elected, I think

it's fair to say that that liberal order is

under real threat.

The establishment in Washington has been slowly weakening,

but able to fend off many of its attacks

on traditional alliances, the traditional institutions.

This is the deep state he keeps railing about.

Another four years of that, I think it raises questions

whether any of these institutions

will survive, from Nato, the WTO, IMF, World Bank.

If there is not American financing

for these things, if there is not

American diplomatic support, remember, a lot of these things

are about American leadership.

They're about America as an example,

and many of the countries that go along

with this global liberal order do so because they see the US

as a provider of public good.

And certainly, a Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren,

would want to see changes to the way that it operates.

But in terms of completely dismantling,

what we come to known as the post-war order,

I think a Democrat winning the election in November 2020,

will see a shift back to what has

been for 80 years American foreign policy internationally.