It's still going strong at what?

7 45 and will be until 12 30 tonight.

How long will this level of production carry on for though, if Corona virus cannot be contained?

That's the question being asked here and countless other firms around the world.

Business of crashing is a global one.

These dummies air sold around the world.

The raw materials come from all over it too.

Toys this and where's it come from?

So this is an aluminium calico.

The honeycomb is manufactured here in our sight on the mitral material for that comes from China or Italy.

A virus that emerged five and 1/2 1000 miles away is having an effect on the health of companies here.

Your Honor is creating really havoc with supplies.

The you know, nobody knows.

We don't know when the supplies gonna be resumed.

The concern isn't just supplies drawing up.

The impact has been passed on down the chain affecting deliveries to right now.

This morning I was told by a customer in Austria that they cannot take delivery off a a Tommy because the travel down there.

So they So we are.

We don't know where we're going with Corona.

This one firm alone is bracing itself for a potential drop in turnover off £4 million.

Thanks to Corona virus and the slowdown experienced here, he's being echoed through business after business in country after country around the world.

The cost of this now is running to the hundreds of billions.

The fear for some economists is that this could take the glory able economy into recession.

No international body yet has put a figure on the four cost.

But stock markets around the world of tumbling and announcements by individual firms of building a bleak picture drinks giant The Adagio behind brands like Guinness and Smirnoff said Corona virus could cost them £200 million in profits.

His people stay clear of restaurants and bars around the world.

HSBC warned it could have to write off more than £400 million in bad loans as companies go to the wall and 25,000 staff of airline Cathay Pacific taking three weeks unpaid leave between now and June.

10 years ago, China was 10% of the global economy.

Now it's 20% of the global economy on Asia.

Overall is 30% of the global economy.

So whatever happens in whatever city in Asia that has a ripple effects across everywhere and of course, the U.

K.

Being censored the sort of financial activity we're going to get hit probably harder than others.

With factories in China, the workshop of the world standing idle, supply chains clogging and tourism seizing up the wheels of trade could soon store.

What effect will that have on the UK?

We could find out in just two weeks time when a new chancellor delivers his first budget aimed at leveling up while Corona virus could send economy's tumbling down?

Look off the five days of tanking.

The footsie finally finishes day, just a tiny fraction higher than it started.

But ultimately, UK companies are worth tens of billions of pounds less than they were a week again, and that's a similar story in markets around the world.

That's a stain drop in markets, gives you an indicator how investors think as to whether I bested, think unanswered.

We've found this soon.

Not very likely, they think.

One leading economic war.

Carter tried to put a price on how much it's gonna cost the global economy.

It currently has turned into a pandemic.

Give or take a trillion pounds.

Paul.

Thanks very much need.

But with me now here.

Down and show Labor.

Chief economist for Notre Economics, a macro economic and political forecasting company that focuses on China.

And Katie Martin, Capital Markets editor for The Financial Times.

Welcome to you both.

Let me start with you, Deanna.

You know, it was said before the Great Depression in the 19 thirties, when America sneezes, the world catches cold with 20% of the world economy with what's happening in China now, could the same be said for the rest of the world?

Absolutely in economic terms, on inju political terms as well, because the defining feature off where we are is what I called the great decouple ing.

This all encompassing geopolitical confrontation between China and the U.

S.

On the Corona virus is only going to exacerbate that.

But give me some practical examples of that.

I'll be talking about production lines about, you know, stuff not being made in China that, you know, that is not being sold in shops here in the UK on the U.

S.

The supply chain, sir, highly integrated.

So yes, absolutely.

The immediate impact in economic terms is on supply chains.

But don't underestimate what that means as well, for where the global economy and political order is moving from here.

Okay, Katie, we saw Stock Market's gyrating this weed.

So yesterday, you know, the Dow was down 1000 points.

Then this morning it was up three young.

Then it was down 150 similar gyrations taking place elsewhere.

What are the markets most afraid of him?

So it is quite interesting.

The markets managed to kind of ignore what was going on for the past few weeks.

They were aware of it.

It was kind of around the edges.

There was a bit of demand for haven assets for safe stuff in a little bit of an aversion to risky investments.

But it really kicked off this week.

Why this week?

Because of Italy, a soon as the virus landed in Italy is in northern Italy as well, which is the industrial Heartland of the country.

Lots of towns have been effectively quarantine.

Lots of factories have started to shut down.

This is what's with the Italian economy is a minnow compared to China.

So why won't people panicking when you know who?

Bay Province was shut down And it a Chinese production paused for weeks on end.

So there were several assumptions that came around the time that Wuhan was shut down.

Who they promised me shut down.

One of them was that it could be contained.

That's not been proven to be false.

The other is that it would be short lived.

Were kind of looking a little bit shaky on that.

And the other was the investors and economists were looking at previous outbreaks of diseases.

You look at Zico, you look at Sarge, Lucky bowler and you think, OK, it's gonna last for kind of this amount of time is gonna have this kind of impact.

Actually.

Looks like we're dealing with something quite different this time.

Do you think that the world economy is overreacting to this?

If you look at the actual numbers of deaths, it's tiny compared to the angle number of deaths caused by the seasonal flu.

If you talking about look at the number infections 80,000 around the world again tiny compared to some other diseases, is the world economy kind of following its herd instinct to fear.

Here.

Dan, I think what's happening is that the disease originated in China.

It's an economy that is mistrusted.

And it certainly didn't help when the World Health Organization seemed to be pandering more toe how it will present she to the world, then really doing its job.

So there was the uncertainty as to exactly really what's going on on at the time when China is way bigger and we'll have a much bigger impact on the world.

And can Chinese companies recover from what's been happening to them in the last few months?

I mean, many of them have shut down their productions.

There was a report this week that 6% of them might be fighting for gambling.

Bankruptcy?

Is that right?

Look, we don't know at this point in time, even though we have seen since the weekend, that's nearly half of the provinces in China have started to lower their emergency response levels, which is quite suspicious if you ask me.

We don't know if this outbreak is even contained in China itself.

At this point in time, Katie, we heard imports report that the figure of one trillion pounds that this could cost the global economy if it becomes a pandemic.

Is that a realistic figure?

Can we even put a price on this?

We can't put a price on it, but in a way, that's what's bothering investors Right now.

Investors and economists are not epidemiologist.

They're not doctors they don't know.

And it's not knowing that's the problem.

Let's go back to your your question about, you know, is our markets overreacting?

I would say no, because you don't shut a factory for standard winter flu.

That's what market's responding to its the shutdown in supply chains.

It's the shutdown in manufacturing.

It's not.

Frankly, the human death toll will be solved with Lehman Brothers in 2008 that a lot of really good companies went to the wall because of the contagion of fear we saw in the 19 thirties that country's factory went bankrupt because, you know, banks in America withdrawing their short term debts is something similar happening here precisely because we don't know where this thing is heading.

I mean, that's a big question.

Honestly, I mean, one of the one of the things gotta bear in mind is what can we do about it in terms of the economic impact in terms of the market impact and the big bet that investors making now is it's okay.

The central banks have got this.

They're gonna cut rates just like they didn't leave.

A brother is just like they've done with every mini crisis we've had since then, but it's not actually going to solve anything in terms of stopping the spread of the virus.

It's very unlike you help markets, but no humans.

I wonder what else it might help very briefly.

Is this the kind of dress rehearsal for a world where you know we consume less?

We fly less the kind of greater tongue.

But paradise is about to come about in a very negative way.

Absolutely.

I say this will exacerbate what is already a process of localization or de globalization.

What do you think?

It's definitely a possibility.

So we could be here less production, less flying.

Just That's what the airline stocks are certainly worried about at the moment.