how they can stop the spread of the coronavirus,

他們如何能阻止冠狀病毒的傳播。

and they're looking to Italy, at the centre of the pandemic,

他們把目光投向了疫情中心的意大利。

for lessons.

峈岅。

Deaths in Italy have outstripped China,

意大利的死亡人數已經超過了中國。

and on the current trajectory, the UK

而按照目前的發展軌跡，聯合王國

could find itself in the same situation in under two weeks.

可能會在兩週內發現自己處於同樣的情況。

The death rate in the US and in other European countries

美國和其他歐洲國家的死亡率。

has also been growing.

也一直在增長。

So what can be done to stop the spread of the virus?

那麼如何才能阻止病毒的傳播呢？

We're going to be looking at social distancing,

我們要看的是社交疏導。

demographics, cultural factors, and testing.

人口統計學、文化因素和測試；

Let's start with social distancing.

先說說社會距離。

After reaching 800 coronavirus deaths,

在冠狀病毒死亡人數達到800人後。

Italy ordered a full lock down, meaning

意大利下令全面封鎖，意味著

people couldn't leave the house unless they

人不出門，除非

had urgent work situations, emergencies, or health reasons.

有緊急工作情況、緊急情況或健康原因；

In the UK, the government has been ramping up

在英國，政府一直在加強

social distancing advice, the emphasis

社會疏遠諮詢，重點

on staying at home as much as possible,

儘可能地呆在家裡。

and otherwise, keeping two metres apart.

和其他，保持兩米的距離。

It's a method that can dramatically

這是一種可以顯著

reduce transmission, and there's hope

減少傳播，有希望

that by flattening the curve, there

通過使曲線變平，有

will be less stress on the health system.

將減少衛生系統的壓力。

There is a big but.

有一個很大的但是。

It relies on people taking heed of the advice.

這有賴於人們聽從建議。

Now things are moving towards a full lock down.

現在，事情正朝著全面封鎖的方向發展。

BORIS JOHNSON: Shopping for basic necessities

BORIS JOHNSON：為基本生活用品購物

as infrequently as possible, one form of exercise a day,

儘量少做，每天一種形式的運動。

for example, a run, walk, or cycle alone or with members

例如，單獨或與成員一起跑步、散步或騎自行車。

of your household, any medical need,

的家庭，任何醫療需求。

to provide care or to help a vulnerable person,

提供照顧或幫助弱勢人員；

and travelling to and from work, but only where this is

和上下班交通，但只有在這種情況下，才會出現這種情況。

absolutely necessary and cannot be done from home.

絕對必要，不能在家進行。

That's all.

就這樣吧

These are the only reasons you should leave your home.

這些都是你應該離開家的唯一理由。

INTERVIEWER: Age is a factor, too.

採訪者：年齡也是一個因素。

It's important to protect the elderly and the vulnerable.

保護老弱群體很重要。

One reason why Italy may have suffered such a high death rate

意大利的死亡率如此之高的原因之一是

may be because of its elderly population.

可能是由於其老年人口。

One in four Italians are aged over 65.

每四個意大利人中就有一個人年齡超過65歲。

In the UK, it's less, but it's still a large proportion.

在英國，雖然比較少，但比例還是很大。

And we know that the elderly and those with underlying health

我們知道，老年人和那些有潛在健康問題的人。

conditions are by far the most vulnerable.

條件是迄今為止最脆弱的。

That's why in the UK, those over 70

這就是為什麼在英國，70歲以上的人

have been asked to self isolate for at least 12 weeks.

已被要求自我隔離至少12周；

It could be crucial.

這可能是至關重要的。

But it's not that straightforward.

但也不是那麼簡單的。

Germany and Japan also have large elderly populations,

德國和日本也有大量的老年人口。

and yet, their death rate has been far lower.

然而，他們的死亡率卻遠遠低於。

There are also cultural factors.

還有文化因素。

Italians like large gatherings, and they're very tactile.

意大利人喜歡大型聚會，而且他們很有觸覺。

Italian families are very tight knit,

意大利家庭的關係非常緊密。

and it's possible that the younger generations spread it

而且有可能被年輕一代傳播開來

to their grandparents, but another cultural factor at play

但另一個文化因素在起作用。

could be to what extent are people

可以是人到什麼程度

willing to follow the rules, especially in the early days.

願意遵守規則，尤其是在早期。

In Britain, people's tendency to keep calm and carry on

在英國，人們傾向於保持冷靜和進行。

could be walking the country into trouble.

可能會讓國家陷入困境。

That's why the UK government faced criticism

這也是英國政府面臨責備的原因。

for merely advising social distancing

因為只是建議社會疏遠

rather than ordering a full lock down.

而不是下令全面封鎖。

Whatever the message is it needs to be loud and clear.

不管是什麼資訊，都需要響亮而清晰。

BORIS JOHNSON: I must give the British people

鮑里斯-約翰遜：我必須給英國人民一個機會

a very simple instruction.

一個非常簡單的指令。

You must stay at home.

你必須呆在家裡。

INTERVIEWER: And then there's testing.

採訪者：然後有測試。

In the UK, only people in need of hospitalisation

在英國，只有需要住院的人

have been tested, but the government

已測試，但政府

is ramping things up.

正在加緊進行。

The World Health Organisation is advising aggressive testing

世界衛生組織建議進行積極的測試。

to limit the infections.

以限制感染。

A control experiment in the small town of Rome near Venice

在威尼斯附近的羅馬小鎮進行的對照實驗。

proved that mass testing can help stamp out the virus.

證明了大規模測試可以幫助消滅病毒。

There were two rounds of testing done.

做了兩輪測試。

In the first round of testing, people with the virus,

在第一輪測試中，病毒攜帶者。

including those with no symptoms,

包括沒有症狀的人。

were put in isolation.

被置於隔離狀態。

There was then a second round of testing,

隨後又進行了第二輪測試。

and a smaller number of infections

和較少的感染人數

were found, also put in isolation,

被發現，也被放在隔離。

proving that this can help stop transmission.

證明這可以幫助阻止傳輸。

But other factors may be at play.

但可能還有其他因素在起作用。

How the cause of death is counted, genetics,

死因怎麼算，遺傳學。

maybe even the climate.

甚至可能是氣候。

Southern Italy has suffered less.

意大利南部受影響較小。

This is leading scientists to believe

這使科學家們相信

that maybe high temperatures and humidity helped

也許高溫高溼有幫助

stop the spread.

阻止蔓延。

Perhaps, the summer will bring some respite,

也許，夏天會帶來一些喘息的機會。

but the summer may be too late.

但夏天可能太晚了。

If lessons are to be learned, they need to be learned now.

如果要吸取教訓，就必須現在就吸取。