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life in lock down these deserted London streets tell a story repeated across the world as almost half the planet is now living inside.
In just a matter of weeks, our life has changed beyond recognition.
And yet every day the number of dead keeps climbing alarmingly so in this channel for new special, we go beyond the news and we bring in global expertise.
Toe answer the following question.
When are we going to flatten that curve?
Could we become the next Italy, Spain or even America?
In every house, on every street, in every neighborhood in this country, people are asking the same questions.
When will this end?
How can this end?
And if and when it does end, what will the world look like?
In other words, what?
It's barely been two weeks since the beginning of the lock down, and it already feels like an eternity, which we're all having to get used to, including my family.
In this house.
I have four kids at home.
Two of them have had their A levels, and GCS is canceled, and they keep asking me the same question every day.
When is the lock down going to end I simply don't know anything anyone, those.
Meanwhile, the conversation around the dinner table is like no other conversation that we ever used tohave.
How many ventilators are there?
How many tests are there?
When are we going to reach the peak?
This is a new vocabulary for a completely new reality.
So here's the question.
How is our government doing?
A few weeks ago, we were all living lies we probably took for granted a day at the races, dinner out a quick pint exercise all parts of normal British.
And whilst the Corona virus had shut down much of Europe, Britain was arguing over an apparent policy.
No other country was adopted.
The only way to stop this epidemic is indeed to achieve herd immunity.
Okay, Thomas, you're shaking your head.
This is crazy.
So we're saying we want to kill 200,000 people in the UK days later, the Prime Minister asked us to do this.
Now is the time for everyone to stop non essential contact with others.
Not everyone understands the message.
Then the ask quickly becomes a kn order.
Stay at home, protect her in a chess and save lives.
Lock down is now our new normal, only essential shopping or travel is allowed Britain's way of life on hold.
And, of course, there's a sort of grim international competition going on.
How we doing compared to other countries?
Are we testing Maur or not?
And why not?
How many deaths do we have compared to others?
Once upon a time, I'm talking about mid March here.
We thought we were four weeks behind Italy.
We were wrong.
Italy's national lock down happened on the ninth of March.
Ours came two weeks later, but at virtually the same point in the epidemic.
Since then, our rate of new cases has slowed to a daily increase of around 22%.
In larger European countries cases, they're starting to level out, while in the United States the daily increases almost 33%.
The death rate, however, tell a mixed story.
Italy peak before any other European country, now has almost 14,000 deaths, an average of 234 per 1,000,000.
The UK has 38,000 cases in just over 3600 deaths.
That's an average of 53 per 1,000,000 climbing.
Germany, by comparison, has more than double our cases, but about 1/3 of the deaths that's an average of just 13 per 1,000,000.
The wise Germany faring so much better than others.
It started this crisis with around 30 critical care beds for 100,000 patients.
Italy just about coped with 12 per 100,000.
The UK had just seven.
And it was that fact, coupled with the explosion of cases in Italy that made the government realize that without a full lock down up to 1/4 of a 1,000,000 Britons could die.
My cannons that this weekend the first of thousands of new ventilator devices will roll off the production line on be delivered to the N.
H s next week.
We now have around 8000 ventilators, and we're told thousands more are on the way.
But to Slow Cove in 19 spread, you need something else.
Test test The World Health Organization is urging all countries to ramp up its testing to identify and isolate new cases, but the UK is only testing around 50,000 people a week, while in Germany it's being ramped up to half a 1,000,000 a week.
US.
Is tested over 1,000,000 in total the previous inaction leaves it in the epicenter of this crisis.
This is gonna be a very painful, very, very painful two weeks and now has more cases than any other country.
Covert, 19 seems to pay even less attention to politics than it does to borders.
We're all at the mercy of pure arithmetic.
What, then, is the perfect combination to ensure his little deaths as possible?
And how much longer must we all live in?
Lock down?
Well, joining me now a three professors of global health, David Heyman is distinguished fellow Chatham House.
He led the World Health Organization's response to SARS.
Aunt has been advising them on Corona virus.
John Edmonds is professor of epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
He works on the mapping of infectious diseases and this currently advising the government here.
I'm Debbie Schrader's chair in global health at Edinburgh University.
She has worked with a number of U.
N and government agencies in developing countries.
John Edmonds If I could start with you if I may.
We had a similar program three weeks ago, which you on and you said at the time that actually, let's listen to what the scientists are saying, but you know, we don't need a full government locked down yet.
We don't need to lock down the country.
And then a few days later, the government decided to do just that.
Do you think that the government squandered some precious time that the Chinese had bought us with their own lock down?
So I think from a purely epidemiological point of view, the best thing for us to do would have been to go into lock down in January and then stay in lock down until we get a vaccine, which might be a year from now or longer.
And but that's no the best thing to do for the for the country.
You know, we've been in lock down now for about 10 days, and it's really starting to drag.
I think many people, and so you do have to time these sorts of interventions properly because you have to try and keep people with you.
And that is what I would say in a interview a few weeks ago on I still maintain it.
I think you said on Wednesday that we're beginning to see this lock down, having a positive effect.
Could you tell us more about that?
Yes.
It looks like it.
We could compare how many contacts people make now are making now with how many contacts they normally would make if there wasn't an epidemic.
And from that we can infer what the reproduction number is likely to be.
A So this reproduction numbers the average number of secondary cases each case generates.
And we think it's now below one, which means that the epidemic should start to peek so you won't see it until probably next week you'll start to see it on effect.
So this is something we think you'll start to see these peace data starting to peak.
That doesn't mean the epidemic is over there.
It just means that we've got we've stopped it from growing.
Okay, let's bring in Debbie, a sweetheart Debbie, and are well on the right track that the curve is beginning to flat.
Do you agree with that assessment?
Well, I think I mean, what we are hopefully seeing is that people are complying with the physical desisting measures.
What you would expect to see is, of course, a slowdown in transmission and staying within n hs capacity.
The worry is that actually we do want to get out of this kind of lock down situation.
It's not good for society.
It's not good for the economy to be in the situation we're in.
And so what happens when we release the lock down and we go back to somewhat semi normality?
Is it going to mean that spread increases again?
And I worry that will be stuck in an endless cycle of locked down and release, which is basically gonna be dictated by how n hs capacity looks?
What will that kind of lock down on again?
Off again?
Due to our society, I mean this tears at the social fabric because I mean the thing.
I think about it every day and locked down.
We're having kids who are not in school, not getting an education.
You're widening inequalities that you're having Children falling into poverty.
We're already seeing a steep rise and the demand on food banks for things like bread and milk and basic necessities.
You're seeing, you know, arrives and you know, calls for domestic abuse on and women needing support child abuse.
I mean, there's all kinds of knock on social effect.
John Edmonds.
I wanted to what extent?
The government is thinking that there comes a point when the benefits off this lock down of these really quite stringent social measures are going to be outweighed by the negative effects on our society that Debbie has just outlined.
Well, I think they're they're trying to monitor that all of the time.
So there is a, uh, you know, balance that needs to be struck here between the lock down, which is the best thing epidemiologically for this virus and everything else in society.
On dhe, this sort of very long period, perhaps intermittent lockdowns.
That's exactly what's going to happen.
That's what we're in.
We're maybe 5% through this epidemic so far, so we've got a very, very long way to go.
David Heyman You've got a vast amount of experience when it comes to dealing with epidemics like SARS on dhe Ebola Looking forward, then what's next in all this?
Do you think?
Well, the next is a good risk assessment by the government, which they'll be doing, and they now have the ability to do antibody testing in communities to determine what really has been the spread of this virus during the preceding months.
Information that John, for example, needs in his modeling activities to better understand what is really going on.
This is a new organism.
We don't know its destiny.
We don't even understand completely.
It's transmissibility.
One country that's been mentioned, an awful lot of South Korea.
This is a democracy, a very proud democracy.
It's also very affluent society.
They found they had a very large number of infections at the beginning, but a relatively small number of deaths.
What have they done that others haven't?
Well, South Korea recently, maybe three or four years ago, as you'll remember, had a major outbreak of Merced Corona virus of over 300 people infected from this one person who entered.
They had a lesson.
They learned that lesson and they prepared for the next one.
Finally, two or three of a very brief question with hopefully, a brief answer, Where do you think we will be by the end of the summer?
David Heyman.
I don't know where we'll be, and I think it would be false to say we do know.
What I do know, though, is that other respiratory infections decrease in transmissibility in the summer months, and hopefully this infection will do the same.
John Edmonds.
I agree.
I think we can't say with any accuracy where we'll be at the end of the summer.
I don't think that the summer holiday that that warm weather is likely to reduce the transmission of this virus.
It's spreading very effectively in lots of warm countries around the world right now.
So I don't think that's gonna be our salvation on Debbie Street are finally to you.
Well, I'm going to give an optimistic scenario that we actually hopefully have an antiviral.
We have a lot of repurposing drug trials, and so actually we can have a better treatment to offer individuals who are very ill.
Wonderful.
Thank you very much for a bit of optimism.
The Debbie Street are John Edmonds and David Hayward.
Thank you to all three of you, a note of optimism there, But there could be months of struggle first, no more so than in America, fast becoming the epicenter of the outbreak on where Donald Trump described himself as a wartime president vying total victory over the virus.
Well, one man who knows all about America going to war is retired four star general Stanley McChrystal, who served as commander of U.
S and NATO forces in Afghanistan.
He's now advising the city of Boston in its response to the outbreak.
Let me start off with a kind of poignant comparison to you.
Does this remind you?
It'll this crisis off the kind of wars that you've been dealing with in the past?
Well, in many ways, it does on several levels.
First we're dealing with in a more festive, viral like enemy that seems to be everywhere.
It's not, but it seems that way, and it's hard to get your arms around it and it's frightening.
And the second things is, it takes a whole of nation approach to combat this just like insurgency or terrorism.
You don't find it with a few military people.
You fight it with an effort that's diplomacy, economics, social and then apart military.
So it's really gonna be a whole of nation.
In fact, I would are you a whole of globe approach.
We just heard from a bunch of scientists that this lock down could last for a very long time, albeit in slightly different versions.
Is the rial war that we're fighting here, one with our own expectations.
And how tough is that?
The lock down or versions of social distancing, as they call it, is the only thing ultimately that will flatten the curve and give us a better outcome.
And yet that takes every single individual to make a conscious effort every single day.
In some ways, that's actually good for the nation.
Because I studied the Montgomery bus boycott in the 1950 part of the American civil rights movement.
What they found was strongest was when they asked people involved to do something every day that reinforced their support for the cause.
I think the worst thing we could do is tell people go about your lives.
Don't worry about it.
We'll let the help care professionals deal with it.
This gives us a sense that not only is it affecting us, but we can all do something for it.
It's not monumental, but social distancing is a sacrifice.
You know, you were a general in Iraq and in Afghanistan these were societies that America and the West wanted to reshape to some extent in their own image, and it didn't work so well To what extent do you think this particular war against the virus will reshape our societies and what we look like at the end of it?
I think this is just going to reshape us more than we think it is.
I know in the work realm now that people in the United States air working from home largely many organizations air, finding that a large part of what they do can easily be done from home.
So in reality, I think there's not going to be a return to the status quo Ante, I think we're going to go to a new normal and those organizations that adapt quickest, they're going to be very, very advantaged as we go forward now.
Much of the focus has, of course, been on the N.
H s.
And just a few weeks ago, the prime minister told the nation that this was like a war against an invisible enemy.
But many N HS doctors and nurses feel that they've been sent into battle with guns, but just not enough bullets, such as the absence of widespread testing and peopIe gear that was their fear back in the mid February before the storm and even broken.
Now, as we fast approach the eye of the storm that is still there fear, as we found out in an exclusive survey for Channel four news of more than 280 N.
H s workers, loud and clear yet again is the lack of peopIe.
80% told us that they don't feel they have adequate personal protective equipment to keep themselves all their patients safe.
Run out on every shift, having to reuse marsanne voices a thin plastic penny on a surgical face mask is a joke and not upto World Health Organization's standards.
Despite all those government assurances that peopIe is getting through, almost 2/3 of staff told us school sent goggles and made face mask with the laminate.
I packed my dad's musky uses for building just in case way have no faith in the N.
H s supplies, so have tried to soar stock Privately.
One order is due to be shipped directly from China for visors, on masks and without that vital protection.
This is what they all fear getting and spreading the virus of themselves.
Nearly 1/3 responded that they'd had covered 19 type symptoms on gone into isolation.
I had flu like symptoms and a cough on was advised to come in and I still have symptoms after 10 days, despite returning to work on being denied a test by management and the trouble is without testing, who knows whether they've actually had it or whether it is safe to return to work.
There's been much criticism of the government this week, and in our survey, 87% told us that testing still wasn't freely available to them.
The N hs organizations have told us that over 30 million PEOPIE kits have been made available to frontline staff on the new guidance for its use has now been issued well, joining me now to NSS doctors, both of whom demonstrate the danger faced by frontline medics in the current crisis.
Dr.
Clare Gerada called Covert 19 but has now recovered her stuff for working at the New Nightingale Hospital in the capital on Dr Sonia Oddy.
Sarah is on call today at her North London hospital.
She has just returned, having been in isolation after also showing symptoms of the virus.
From your point of view, what's next for your part of the N hs Claire.
You first.
What next is bringing testing into primary care so that we can at least start testing our star for community care staff Our primary care start?
Because at the moment, we're losing start through isolation and through possible illness.
So for us, hopefully that's what's next for me.
It's not about what next for what should already be happening.
And I think we need to make sure that all health care workers working in the N hs and in our social care system have the adequate protection on Ben.
Yeah, I completely agree.
We should be testing workers who get symptoms of been in contact with symptoms on.
I'd like to see testing more wider than that is well in the community as well.
Imagine a world where you actually have a ll the testing that you need and you've got your peopie kits.
But the virus is still there.
We still haven't got a vaccine.
What do you think the burden on the N HS would look like then?
And can we cope?
The biggest burden for the N hs is when we have too many kept P cases coming in on the N hs becomes overloaded.
And then, as Claire mentioned, other aspects of care, then get jeopardized.
Because of that, people will continue to get ill for other reasons over the next few months.
And it's really important voice in the N hs on that we the rest of the service remains open and that we end up whether it's people's mental health problems or women having babies or people getting their cancer treatment.
All these things need to continue.
We can't compromise Carrie.
There's other areas, either.
I mean, there was an argument even before this crisis about the sustainability Onda future funding of the edges.
If the N hs has to be ramped up to this kind of almost warlike footing on a permanent basis, how is it sustainable?
How can it be funded?
How can we deal with it?
What we're doing at the moment is we're ramping.
Service is up in order to meet the crisis that we've currently got 4000 intensive care beds that excel isn't something that's going to be required for much longer.
But if if you say fast forward, where will the neck just me care?
Well, I think what we're seeing now is how important it is to bring together the various bits of health and social care, primary and community care, mental health and physical health.
And I think what we're gonna probably do and I'm very optimistic is when we come out of this, we're gonna have a much more efficient and much safer and higher quality and hs because what those bits that we've been trying to change for decades decades are being changed around this place for three weeks.
Dr.
Kay Gerardo, Dr.
Sonya decided.
Thank you very much indeed.
Well, ask any epidemiologists and the virus model, any global health expert walk next for the Corona virus and they will all inevitably say, America on the front line.
There is New York City.
I'm joined now by Alicia Spiegel.
Tell us about the situation in the hospital where you're working as a nurse.
So arm basically most of our units are now Colvin 19 units.
It has taking over pretty much the whole hospital.
Um, we stopped all of our elective surgeries.
Three emergency rooms were swarmed on, and there are other facilities that are running out of supplies and also running out of from venal leaders on medication at this time, I have enough protective gear.
Technically, we don't, um we are being asked to re use are and 95 Ross Raiders for a week.
We don't have enough masks.
We don't know if these masks after one shift even more.
So had we know they're gonna work for a week.
They're supposed to be single use for each.
Keisha, I can hear your Children in the background there.
You're a working mother.
You're announced on the front, and that's fine.
That's fine.
You're a nurse on the front line.
You must be exhausted.
Yes, yes.
So ships are horn now it's a lot.
We're working 12 13 our ships.
Not drinking, not eating because, I mean, you know, we don't want to take the masks off.
It is terrifying.
How long do you think you could go on for?
Like this?
Me personally.
Every every shift I leave, I say I'm not going back and I keep going.
I don't know.
Um, mentally, I don't know mentally and physically.
I'm not sure, but we have to do it and we keep We keep showing up to do our job.
You were probably too young at the time, But I don't know if you've talked to colleagues about what it was like in New York City after 9 11 Is this as bad in terms of dealing with the chaos and casualties, or is it worse?
What's the comparison?
I was 16 when 9 11 happened.
Um, I wouldn't know.
I don't know how to compare it.
I would compare it to a chemical warfare.
Almost in a way, um, this this is bad.
This too scary.
This is silent.
You don't see it.
Um, 9 11 happens.
You know, it happens in one shot.
Um, this is lingering on.
And now they're saying over here in the States, they are doing the mandatory locked down for another 30 days.
It's not going to be 30 days.
This is This is going to last a few more months.
Now we all know what we want that next to be a cure.
Immunity of vaccine.
Something to liberate us from this seemingly indefinite locked down in our homes.
But how imminent is that?
Labs around the world Scientists are racing to develop a vaccine toe, hold the spread of the virus here, important down there already testing one on animals.
Vaccines developed by Oxford University and Imperial College could be child on humans in the coming weeks.
Worked like this is happening in around 35 research centers across the globe.
But even if one of the child is successful and approved, the challenge will be getting it out there to those who needed.
Countries will be competing against each other to get hold of the drug most scientists agree of actually will only be available at the earliest next year.
So what we need to be in lock down until then?
Or could we use existing medicine to treat the virus?
An antiviral drug used for Ebola andan anti malaria drug are being trialed, but we need more tests before we know they can treat Corona virus patients.
So back to where this all began.
Wuhan, China People are now slowly emerging from more than two months of strict locked down.
His new cases have dramatically fallen.
Will there be a second wave of infections?
With the reassurance of a vaccine still months away, the world will be watching well to discuss what's next in the search for a vaccine.
I'm joined now by bio security expert doctor and go zero Rondo, who provides technical expertise on infectious disease control.
Two organizations such as the World Health Organization on Professor Robin, shattered from the Department of Infectious Disease at Imperial College in London.
He's leading a team there, developing a vaccine for the virus.
Let me start off the new robin, Tell us where we are with the vaccine.
So we're working very hard to try and get our vaccine into clinical trials by the beginning of summer on Dhe, together with the group in Oxford who will be starting earlier than us.
That means in the UK we have two candidates that hopefully can start to impact on this epidemic later in the year.
But for those of us living in lock down, which is almost the entire planet, you know, we're impatient.
So we want to know why can't be done any sooner.
Why you can't have a vaccine.
Let's say in the autumn, if you're testing it on humans in a couple of weeks from now, could you just explain that to us, please?
Well, I totally understand people's in patients and we're impatient ourselves, but traditionally you have to bear in mind that actually going from starting to test human vaccines to getting to something that has demonstrated to be safe and works and gets a marketing license can take up to three years s.
So we're trying to do this much faster than it's been done before on Dhe.
It may be possible that some of these vaccines could be used in the winter before they're licensed.
If they're shown to have some degree of efficacy on, that would be faster than it's ever been done before.
Let me turn to you and go zero room.
Did you dealt with the Ebola crisis in Africa?
Which is, you know, different beast altogether, I guess.
But if we don't get a mass vaccine by the beginning of next year, do you think that that means that we have to live in, lock down on it off until we get that vaccine?
Well, while the vaccine is definitely the endgame, meaning, you know we won't have to do as many extreme measures are totally change our lifestyle until we get the vaccine.
Before then, there are definitely things that we can dio.
We can increase our testing and make our testing more targeted.
So we're able to find new cases, isolate them immediately, look for their contacts and then make sure that they're isolated.
If they're sick or quarantine for the incubation period, then people will be able to go back to work, go back to school.
And this, of course, will be after, you know, we get over this peak.
So I I think that before vaccine, we will be able to still do some epidemiological public health measures to control the outbreak.
But we won't go back to normal without a vaccine.
But essentially, this abnormality that's become the new normality will continue, you know, often on until the beginning of next year.
Yeah, I think that's very possible.
I also think it's possible for us to kind of see lockdowns in cycles where we lift, you know, the lock down gradually and then depending on you know, that the number of cases and the NHL, if Cape capacity, we may have to do some types of lockdowns kind of in cycles.
Another thing that we will definitely have to keep doing is just social distancing.
I think that really needs to become part of the culture as well as you know, increased handwashing staying at home when you're sick.
Ah, there are a lot of things that we can do before the vaccine comes out to to try to protect as many people as possible.
Robin, let me ask you, if we do get that vaccine that works, and you seem to be mildly optimistic that we'll have it, you know, some stage at the end of the other beginning of next year is that the end of covert 19.
Are we never gonna have to talk about this disease ever again because we'll have the vaccine.
It will certainly be a game changer, but I think there's an important point to make, actually, even before we get to a globally available waxing on that issue no along similar lines to the Ebola outbreak in 2014.
If either of the two vaccines in the UK or hopefully both get another the sign of efficacy, they could be deployed in the UK early in the winter.
So, for example, we know that we could manufacture five million doses by early winter.
On if there was an efficacy signal, those could be used to vaccinate vulnerable populations and frontline workers on that could actually have a profound impact on the epidemic.
And if we get that vaccine and it works, will we ever have to talk about Kobe 19 ever again?
I think we will, just like we talked about the flu every year and we talk about, um, you know, people get colds every year.
I think that Corona virus eventually will be throughout the world and will will really have to make sure that the vaccine is within immunization schedules, that it's available to the most vulnerable in our population.
So definitely the elderly and other populations as well on Dhe, then we'll just have to manage it as we manage so many other diseases.
So let's face it, we're all so busy trying to live our new lives and managing our fears.
We've had very little time to imagine what things will look like once this is over, perhaps everything from how we play to how we work to how we interact with each other.
This is existentially stuff.
So time to call in the poets.
George the poet in my garden at a very safe distance of over two meters.
But first, an extract from his brand new poem about this virus.
Corona virus is a global crisis.
We're gonna have to stay home to fight this indoors with our phones beside us literally left to our own devices.
Why don't you find this strange?
A second ago, our biggest stress was climate change.
Now we face a more immediate friends.
It's more lives in danger.
Tell me what went through your mind as you walk to empty London?
I was thinking of that.
Somewhere in this town is a ghost town.
It's like, um, I have never seen London.
So bacon in some respects, to know that we're all thinking and worrying or questioning the same things is it's surreal.
But there's something a little bit charming, almost, you know, in the romantic sense about it.
But at the same united sold all Yeah, you know, it is rare to have so much of humanity on one accord we talk about This virus is a great leveller, but rich people are going to do better all day, right?
So already, um, there are differences in how people are able to respond to the the fact that we can't go toe work right.
Poor families will inevitably be more affected by this.
There are pressures within overcrowded households, so these divisions won't disappear because of Corona virus.
If we're not careful that it could be antagonist ized, you talk about the importance of telling stories and how we survive this crisis through the kind of stories that we tell each other.
What's gonna be the role of the art in all this?
Do you think?
Well, I see our as a torch right, shining a light on our experiences.
I feel fortunate to be part of an arts culture in this society that really takes that role seriously.
Arts Council England's recently announced a £160 million package emergency fund toe provide relief for artists on an individual level on an organizational level on.
That's the kind of thing that will really prove a worthwhile investment of social investment throughout this crisis, because arts is the space of storytelling.
George the poet in my garden on what next for are sold.
But what about everything else?
Geopolitics, geo economics, geo food, global leadership, the big issues.
Joining me now Tim Lang, who is professor of food policy at City University.
He's worked as a consultant to the World Health Organization and also as a hill farmer in Lankershim.
Gayle Smith was special adviser to Barack Obama, where she helped coordinate the U.
S response to global health threats, including the 2014 abode, a crisis she now heads.
The one campaign, The Global Movement to End Extreme Poverty and Preventable Disease.
On Dingo Anderson is executive director of the U N Environment Program.
The Danish economist and environmentalists also spent 15 years working at the world back.
Well, welcome to your let me start with you, Tim Lang.
I mean, you're an expert on food.
This whole thing started with food.
You know, I didn't because it started in a wet market in China, rather like some previous diseases on.
Now our obsession is all about food.
Can we feed ourselves enough in this period of lock down?
So tell us about the importance of food in all this.
Well, I think you're right.
It's it's exposed the interconnectedness, even in very bizarre ways, we don't yet fully no, but it's looking from the gene typing that it has come from trade in wild animals being seen as exotic Onda as China has got more affluent.
It's pulling power of that sort of food.
Exotica has then jumped, but zero no sees happen like this.
Not as bad as this, but they happen.
So zoo in Tennessee's ought to have bean on the agenda here in Britain, it's already how it's emerging.
This crisis that ostensibly was about bodily health is being turned into a cultural dislocation around food.
A lot of people across the sciences have been saying for a long time, the food system has it been developed in the affluent world is apparently a miracle of just in time delivery systems on astonishing in its complexity and efficiency.
On you can go into a supermarket and see just impossible choice.
And yet it can break very easily on that fragility is something we've got to discuss, not least in relation to climate change but also culturally golf.
If I could turn to you, I mean what we heard him describe.
There is something that's become very familiar everyone for themselves or a lot of people for themselves in the supermarkets off the world, but also countries acting for themselves.
Now you dealt with the American administration's response, but also to some extent the global response to the Ebola crisis a few years ago.
Are you worried that we're gonna We're sort of turning in on ourselves as countries.
Or could there actually be some kind of greater global response to this issue that we're not seeing is far so far.
I think we need and I hope we will see that global response.
And here's why.
Um you know, Tim referenced our interconnectedness, our interdependence.
That's a fact.
It's not an opinion.
And we need to be much more deliberate about that.
We're seeing, for example, now, countries all over the world scrambled to get the protective gear, the medical supplies that are needed, that's grossly inefficient on, and it's not working very well.
The second reason this is really important is this really is a global pandemic.
Now it needs global cooperation for the simple reason that a virus doesn't stay in one place and we will not have succeeded in this fight if it is still raging in some parts of the world.
And we're seeing already as it moves around the globe.
We're seeing it moving, uh, into countries in Southeast Asia into Africa, into places where there are some capacity constraints and we need to be focused on that, and it's actually it's to our collective benefit.
Now.
You dealt with the abode a crisis which is a really serious crisis back in 2014.
But where was the global response to that?
Did we learn any lessons from the Ebola crisis on if we haven't learned those lessons have to what extent are we not paying the price?
I think we learned a number of lessons from that, and and we would not have succeeded in bringing that epidemic under control if there hadn't been massive collaboration at the international level.
I think the other thing we learned and the world has frankly not paid enough attention to is that there are a number of gaps in the system that enable countries to prevent, detect and respond to these kinds of global health threats.
There are holes in the net, if you will.
There is one place where there is a lot of global collaboration that's among scientists, and medical professionals are sort of disease.
Detectives are sharing data across borders all of the time so that we know more today than we did yesterday.
Let me turn to you in Anderson, your expertise is climate change.
Is it not possible that this extraordinary world that we're all living in now under lock down has put the extinction rebellion crowd out of business?
This is kind of what they dreamt off.
No more planes, you know, decline in a dramatic decline in production.
Anybody wants to take a victory on this one on the on the side of environmentalism is in deep, deep era.
Because what we need to do clearly is we need to first of all, understand where these diseases coming from.
They're coming from our mismatch, mate.
They're coming from us not understanding fully what illegal wet markets deliver, what illegal wildlife trade it.
There is an agreement around this to to manage where illegal my life traits.
Secondly, on the biodiversity front, where eroding over paving, causing degradation, off off biodiversity would fragmenting biodiversity.
And we know anybody that works on nature knows that this is where we get this transfer, this transmission, the zoonotic diseases it referred to nail.
These are really big questions and one hopes that there are people thinking up the right answers at the moment, but at the same time.
We're all kind of just trying to stay healthy and stay alive in our own homes at the moment.
So maybe this is not the time to have these big thoughts.
But once the moment is gone, once this crisis is over, is there anything to suggest that we won't just slip back to business as usual?
Well, look, it's my hope that tragically this is gonna be so costly that it's gonna cause leaders to rethink.
I do think it's gonna be absolutely important that leaders here for from the people who vote for them, because we are all in our homes trying to be safe and protected because, quite frankly, global leadership has failed to prevent manage this in the right way.
One of the big issues coming out of this is not just a really deep recession with possibly a global depression.
Worse, some people are saying that everything we saw in the 19 thirties, so surely that is going to be perhaps an even greater cost for society's than being exerted currently by the virus itself and the political consequences of that.
If they're anything like in the 19 thirties, a pretty grim aren't they?
Yes, extremely so.
And I think one of things we have to remember And all of us are seeing this in our own communities.
This virus strikes hardest at those people who have the least capacity to withstand it, right, the world's most vulnerable.
We're going to see epic consequences.
I can only hope that this is going to force leaders toe wake up and to step up.
And it's also gonna empower and enable citizens and frankly, the media to demand a different debate and a different approach.
Is the world going to be a better place once this is over?
Yes, I know it's gonna be a sad place for a while, but then it'll get better.
Gail, I would agree with Inga.
It's gonna be rough for a time, but we're gonna come out stronger and wiser.
Tim.
Yes.
If we push for it, it all depends whether we push for it.
Tim Lang, Gayle Smith thing.
Anderson.
Thank you very much for coming on the program.
Some cautious optimism there to end all it is called the novel Corona Virus.
And everything about her new indoor lives is indeed novel unfamiliar, unimaginable.
Just a few weeks ago, but we're gonna have to get used to this.
We're in this for the long haul, so we need a ll The kindness, ingenuity, flexibility, imagination and humor toe work around it.
And let's face it, for now, we really don't have a choice.
What I want, Uh, the rainbow So pretty in the sky Also on the faces of people going by I see friends waving way.
Really?
Wait, wait one.