Two Use an overused term.

We're cautiously optimistic that we're slowing the infection rate.

That's what the numbers say that with data suggests to us, changing total hospitalizations is down.

Uh, not relative to yesterday.

But when it's average the three day average on the hospitalizations, you see a dramatic decline in those numbers.

And that's obviously very good news.

Change in I.

C.

U admissions is actually a negative number for the first time since we started this intense journey.

That means there are fewer people in the intensive care unit statewide than they were.

And again, that's the first time we've seen a negative number.

So that's good.

The three day average of that is is down changing intubation.

Sze is a little tick higher than it's been in the past few days, but it's still overall down.

The three day average is also down.

The bad news is we continue to lose a tremendous number of lives and indoor great pain as a state 777 lives lost.

I understand intellectually why it's happening.

It doesn't make it any easier to accept.

What's happening is the number of people who came in two weeks ago when we had those very high hospitalization rates.

Either you get treated and get better and get discharged, or you stay in the hospital and probably wind up on a ventilator.

And the longer you're on a ventilator, the less likely you will come off the ventilator.

And that's what's happening now.

These lives lost the people who came in at that height hospitalization period, and we're losing them.

The number is is lower than yesterday.

For those who can take solace in that fact, as someone who searches for solace in all this grief, the the leveling off of the number of lives lost is somewhat hopeful.

Sign the number of total Lives lost 7800 and 44 for people.

Just to put this in perspective, I lived through 9 11 as many New Yorkers did.

War of somewhat advanced Age, and I believe 9 11 was the worst situation that I was going to deal with in my lifetime.

Uh, and to put it in perspective, 2700 and 53 people lost their lives on 9 11 were 7844.

So in terms of lives lost, that this situation should exceed 9 11 is still beyond my capacity to fully appreciate to tell you the truth, we've been watching a spread to the suburban communities around New York City now.

So Suffolk it was just a Rockland that seems to have stabilized.

We have a couple of hot spots and Suffolk County that we're watching.

But overall, we've been very aggressive in the suburban communities in jumping on those hot spots, and the percentage of growth in upstate New York and the suburban areas around New York City has basically been stabilized and flat.

So that's good news, too.

So overall, New York is flattening the curve, and we have to flatten the curve because when they showed us the projection models of what the statisticians projected the curve would do, we have no capacity to meet those projections.

In other words, Columbia University, who is projecting the highest caseload, said we needed 136,000 hospital beds in New York City when we started.

Uh, I was just several weeks ago 136,000 hospital beds in New York City.

We only have about 33 to 36,000 hospital beds in New York City.

So that was obviously distressing, to say the least.

McKinsey had projected we would need 110,000 hospital beds.

They had a second scenario, which they considered their moderate scenario, which was 55,000 hospital beds statewide.

And again, we didn't have that capacity.

Even on the moderate scenario, the gates funded I H m e suggested we needed 73,000 beds.

We didn't have that either.

So none of these projections were in any way, uh, comforting to us.

The actual curve is much, much lower than any of them projected.

And, well, what's the variance?

How do you come up with an actual curve that is so much different than what those experts predicted?

First, in fairness to the experts, nobody has been here before.

Nobody.

So everyone is trying to figure it out the best they can.

Uh, there is no model to track against.

Second, the big variable was what policies do you put in place?

And the bigger variable waas.

Does anybody listen to the policies you put in place, right?

I'm governor of the state of New York.

Yeah, You can announce a policy.

That doesn't mean anyone is going to follow it.

You can announce a policy we're going to close down.

Our business is everybody must stay home.

And if people don't follow it or they don't take it seriously or they believe you're being premature or you're being political, they wouldn't follow.

And then what do we do?

What were you arrest 19 million people ticket 19 million people.

So the big variable Waas, what policies do you put in place?

And the bigger variable does anybody care?

And does anyone follow it?

And all these social distancing stay at home?

Nobody has ever done this before.

So the statisticians had to come up with a premise on how many would comply, and we've actually exceeded that.

But we have to keep doing it.

You know, people tend to think that this is a natural trajectory of the disease.

There is no natural trajectory.

The trajectory is the trajectory that we create by our actions.

The natural trajectory would see that line continue to go up.

It would continue to go up and up and up until you develop herd immunity where you would see many, many more infections.

So we did that.

We are doing that, and that's why we have to stay the course.

Hi, everyone.

George Stephanopoulos here.

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