You probably think of this guy.

你可能會想到這個人。

An actual robot that looks like a human or at least Boston dynamic's Atlas.

一個真正的機器人，看起來像一個人，或者至少是波士頓動態的Atlas。

That's why you are probably not worried since they don't seem to hit the streets

這就是為什麼你可能不擔心，因為他們似乎不上街了

any time soon.

任何時候都是如此

But we don't need these kinds of robots to do your job better than you.

但我們不需要這種機器人比你做得更好。

If you are a freshman, by the time you graduate, 4 years from now.

如果你是大一新生，到你畢業時，4年後。

It will be quite difficult to find a job and 10 years from now, that job would probably

找工作會相當困難，10年後，那份工作可能會是

won't exist at all.

根本不會存在。

Not because robots are coming but they are already here.

不是因為機器人來了，而是它們已經來了。

In this video, you are going to learn, how automation works, which jobs are already getting

在這段視頻中，你將瞭解到，自動化是如何工作的，哪些工作已經開始了。

automated, and which ones are going to disappear in the next 10 years.

自動化，以及哪些會在未來10年內消失。

Algorithms

算法

The reason you clicked on this video is that the robot behind youtube analyzed your behavior

你點擊這個視頻的原因是youtube背後的機器人分析了你的行為。

and decided that you are going to click on this video.

並決定你要點擊這個視頻。

and since you did, the algorithm got it right and now it knows a little bit more about you.

既然你做了，算法就對了，現在它對你的瞭解更多了一些。

In the past automation use to mean Giant machine doing simple repetitive work, however that

在過去，自動化意味著巨大的機器在做簡單的重複性工作，然而，現在的自動化已經不再是簡單的重複性工作了。

has changed.

已經改變了。

Every purchase you make online, every website you visit, every google search you make tells

你在網上進行的每一次購買，你訪問的每一個網站，你進行的每一次谷歌搜索，都會告訴你

a little more about you to the algorithm.

對算法多一點了解你。

Because algorithms are little robots who sit behind any tech you use and learn on their

因為算法是坐在你使用的任何技術背後的小機器人，他們會在你使用的任何技術背後學習。

own.

自己的。

You no longer have to teach the machine to perform a certain task, feed with a bunch

你不再需要教機器執行某項任務，用一堆的飼料來餵養。

of information, they will analyze them, try millions if not billions of combinations and

的資訊，他們會對它們進行分析，嘗試數以百萬計甚至數十億計的組合和

eventually will get better than you.

最終會得到比你更好的。

We, as Humans also learn by trial and error, however, the difference is, we needed billions

我們人類也是通過試錯來學習的，但是，不同的是，我們需要幾十億個

of years to come to the point where we are now, and robots can learn all of that in almost

年的時間來達到我們現在的程度，而機器人幾乎可以在很短的時間內學會所有的東西

no time.

沒有時間。

- voice recognition

- 語音識別

I know that the Siri on your phone seems like it is still stuck in 2011 with iPhone 4s but

我知道你手機上的Siri似乎還停留在2011年的iPhone 4s，但

voice recognition technology has improved dramatically since then.

此後，語音識別技術有了很大的提高。

No one wants to talk to the robot when he calls to a call center, but have you ever

當機器人打到呼叫中心的時候，沒有人願意和他說話，但你是否有

wondered why call center agents have become so good at solving your problems.

想知道為什麼呼叫中心的客服人員會變得如此擅長解決你的問題。

It's not because they somehow got smarter but rather it's the robot that's doing the

不是因為他們變聰明瞭，而是機器人在做這件事

job.

工作。

Every call center records your voice when you call them.

每個呼叫中心都會在你打電話給他們時記錄你的聲音。

Because the robot first turns your speech into text to understand your problem, and

因為機器人首先會把你的語音變成文字來理解你的問題，而。

then goes through an endless number of information within seconds to find suitable solutions

然後在幾秒鐘內翻閱無窮無盡的資訊，尋找合適的解決方案。

and presents them to the agent.

並將其提交給代理人。

And all that is left for the agent is to click on the right solution that's on the screen.

而對於代理商來說，剩下的就是點擊螢幕上的正確解決方案。

So that step by step instruction will appear in front of him (screen).

所以，那一步步的指令會出現在他的面前（螢幕）。

And he just reads them to you.

而他只是讀給你聽。

"As soon as the customer says they want to cancel a credit card, the robot understands

"只要客戶說要註銷信用卡，機器人就明白了。

that, goes ahead and gets the instructions for the agent on how to cancel a credit.

那，就去找代理人說明如何取消信貸。

According to an article on BBC, this technology reduced the average call durations from 4.6

根據BBC的一篇文章，這項技術將平均通話時長從4.6分鐘減少到了3分鐘。

to 4.2 minutes on average.

到平均4.2分鐘。

That might not sound much, but those saved seconds add up across millions of calls in

這可能聽起來不多，但這些節省下來的秒數在數百萬次的通話中加起來，就能讓我們的生活更美好。

an industry where time is money.

一個時間就是金錢的行業。

What does that mean?

這意味著什麼？

Call centers now need fewer agents? that already puts thousands of people out of work!

呼叫中心現在需要的座席少嗎，這已經讓成千上萬的人失業了!

Agents don't need to be trained anymore, because robots are doing everything? so that puts

代理人不需要訓練了，因為機器人在做一切嗎？

the trainers out of work!

訓練員失業了！

And while the agents are choosing the most suitable options, the algorithm behind the

而當代理人在選擇最合適的方案時，背後的算法是

scenes is taking note and after millions of interactions, the algorithm will learn to

場景正在記錄，經過數百萬次的交互，算法會學習到

be as good as a human in choosing the most suitable option from choices that the algorithm

在從算法的選擇中選擇最合適的選項方面，和人類一樣好。

itself comes up with.

本身拿出的。

That's when even agents will be put out of work.

那時候連代理商都會被淘汰。

Self-driving cars

自動駕駛汽車

that's not only where automation is taking place.

這不僅是自動化發生的地方。

We all know about self-driving cars, you probably have seen a tesla in your neighborhood.

我們都知道自動駕駛汽車，你可能在附近見過特斯拉。

But you don't care!

但你不在乎！

I mean why would you!

我是說你為什麼要這樣做！

Every year 1.3 million people die due to car accidents, and 35 million get injured.

每年有130萬人因車禍死亡，3500萬人受傷。

Basically, by the end of the day, 3287 people will die because there are cars in the streets.

基本上，到了今天，3287人會因為街上有車而死亡。

That's a big number, In fact, in the last few decades, these numbers only grew exponentially.

這是一個很大的數字，事實上，在過去的幾十年裡，這些數字只是成倍增長。

But, what is the main cause behind so many accidents, it turns out that in almost 95

但是，這麼多事故背後的主要原因是什麼呢，原來在幾乎95

percent of the cases, its the fault of the driver.

百分之百的情況下，是司機的錯。

Simply put, accidents happen when drivers aren't paying enough attention.

簡單來說，事故的發生是由於司機不夠重視。

And that's where self-driving cars come into the picture.

而這也是自動駕駛汽車的優勢所在。

Unlike humans, robots can stay focused on the road all the time.

與人類不同，機器人可以一直專注於道路。

Currently, self-driving cars have a 98% safety rate, even though that's quite hight but no

目前，自動駕駛汽車的安全率為98%，雖然這很高，但沒有

one will trust a self-driving car even if there is a 2 percent chance of an accident.

人們會相信一輛自動駕駛汽車，即使有2%的機會發生事故。

However, it's just a matter of another few years before the guys in silicon valley will

然而，這只是一個問題，再過幾年硅谷的傢伙將

get that number to 99.9 percent.

讓這個數字達到99. 9%。

Remember, the longer we wait, the more people we are going to unintentionally kill.

記住，我們等待的時間越長，無意中殺死的人就越多。

But that's not the only problem with cars.

但這不是汽車的唯一問題。

the truth is, cars are an extremely inefficient mode of transport.

事實上，汽車是一種效率極低的交通工具。

On average they are only used 5 percent of the time, the other 95 percent, they are parked

平均只有5%的時間被使用，其他95%的時間，它們都被停放在那裡。

somewhere waiting for you!

在某處等著你!

And even when you drive it, you spend a big chunk of that time looking for parking.

而且就算是開著它，也會花一大半的時間去找停車位。

Self-driving won't only solve that problem, but completely get rid of traffic.

自動駕駛不僅能解決這個問題，還能徹底擺脫交通問題。

I know that it sounds like a complete Utopia, however, CGP grey has a great video on that

我知道這聽起來像一個完整的烏托邦，然而，CGP灰色有一個偉大的視頻，在這一點上

which link I will live in the description.

我將生活在描述中的鏈接。

Despite all the advantages of this innovation, millions of people who's livelihood depends

儘管這種創新有很多優點，但數以百萬計的人的生計卻取決於

on driving will be out of work, which includes, 3.5 million truck drivers in America alone.

駕駛上會失業，其中包括，僅美國就有350萬卡車司機。

The other 5 jobs that will disappear

其他5個將消失的工作

At first, it might seem like robots will only take routine and repetitive jobs, but a sophisticated

起初，機器人似乎只會承擔常規和重複性的工作，但一個複雜的

job is nothing but a combination of many simple repetitive tasks.

工作無非是許多簡單重複性工作的組合。

What that means is that the algorithm is also about to replace jobs such as accounting.

這意味著，算法也即將取代會計等工作。

Robots are simply better at analyzing financial statements, auditing, bookkeeping and on and

機器人只是在分析財務報表、審計、記賬等方面更勝一籌而已。

on.

在：

That doesn't only concern accounting, most of the law jobs are subject to automation

這不僅涉及到會計，大部分的法律工作都會受到自動化的影響。

because algorithms are just better at going through an endless number of papers, legal

因為算法只是更善於通過無窮無盡的文件，法律上的

discovery, creating contracts.

發現、創建合同。

They can even argue about parking tickets and handle divorce cases.

他們甚至可以爭論停車罰單，處理離婚案件。

So to become a lawyer, you either become exceptional at your job, or robots will replace you.

所以，要想成為一名律師，你要麼在工作中變得卓越，要麼機器人會取代你。

That also includes most of the administrative jobs, assistants, secretaries, middle management,

也包括大部分的行政工作、助理、祕書、中層管理人員。

administrators in general, you name it!

管理員一般，你說吧!

For the last few decades, we have created an unbelievable amount of content.

在過去的幾十年裡，我們創造了大量令人難以置信的內容。

And as we know, the more data we feed to these algorithms, the faster they learn, so robots

而我們知道，我們給這些算法提供的數據越多，它們學習的速度就越快，所以機器人

that will be writing the news are just around the corner.

會寫新聞的人就在眼前。

Even though most of the automation is happening with white color jobs, these algorithms also

儘管大部分的自動化工作都發生在白色作業上，但這些算法也是

have helped to create robots that would replace humans in the construction industry.

已經幫助創造了機器人，這些機器人將在建築行業取代人類。

Since most of the construction work consists of heavy repetitive tasks from moving materials

由於大部分的建築工程都是由搬運材料等繁重的重複性工作組成的

to building walls.

到建牆。

why this time is different

今夕何夕

Automation isn't something new, it has been happening throughout human existence, we have

自動化並不是什麼新鮮事，在人類生存的過程中，它一直在發生，我們已經。

always been trying to come up with inventions to make life easier.

一直在努力想出一些發明，讓生活變得更簡單。

And it's not the first time we are facing such a challenge.

而這也不是我們第一次面臨這樣的挑戰。

in fact, in the last few decades, we have automated a good number of factory jobs!

事實上，在過去的幾十年裡，我們已經實現了大量工廠工作的自動化!

But what did these people do when they lost their jobs?

但是，這些人失業後都做了什麼呢？

With a little bit of training, they took up construction, transportation, and administrative

只要稍加培訓，他們就會從事建築、交通、行政等工作

tasks? but what's going to happen when all of these

但是，當所有的這些任務發生時，會發生什麼呢？

jobs will be automated at once.

工作將一次性自動完成。

But what happens when you cant become a lawyer, accountant, and all administrative jobs are

但是，如果你不能成為律師，會計師，所有的行政工作都是，會發生什麼？

automated, and as a backup plan, you cant even driver uber for living.

自動化，作為一個備份計劃，你甚至不能駕駛uber生活。

How to prepare yourself

如何為自己做準備

However, not everything as bad it seems, at the end of the day, we are automating everything

然而，並不是所有的事情都像看起來那麼糟糕，在一天結束的時候，我們正在自動化一切。

to make life easier for us - Humans!

讓我們人類的生活更輕鬆!

Of course, there will be new types of jobs, but they will most likely require more sophisticated

當然，會有新的工作類型，但它們很可能需要更復雜的。

skills and since we humans are not fast learners, at least compared to the algorithms, most

技能，而由於我們人類的學習速度並不快，至少與算法相比，大部分的

of us will struggle to adapt to this new economy that's ruled by algorithms.

我們中的人將很難適應這個被算法統治的新經濟。

The only way to be among the winners in this economy is to constantly learn because the

只有不斷學習，才能在這個經濟中躋身於贏家之列，因

moment you stop learning, sooner or later, the algorithm will learn to do that better

當你停止學習的那一刻，遲早有一天，算法會學會做得更好的

than you and you doomed again.

比你，你又註定要失敗。

Of course, you cant spend your entire life going to college since if a 4-year degree

當然，你不可能一輩子都在上大學，因為如果4年制的學位。

costs 100K dollars, how much do you think is a 30-year education would cost you.

成本10萬元，你認為是30年的教育會花費你多少錢。

That's where skillshare comes into the picture, with over 21 thousand classes, you can learn

這就是skillshare的作用，超過2.1萬門課程，你可以學到

pretty much any skill you want.

幾乎任何你想要的技能。

That includes coding, web designing, photography, you name it!

這包括編碼、網頁設計、攝影，你能想到的都有!

In fact, if you want to learn to make animated videos, you can take this motion graphics

其實，如果你想學習製作動畫視頻，可以把這個動感的畫面

course by Kurzgesagt and learn the basics of after-effects and start making animated

課程由Kurzgesagt和學習After-effects的基礎知識，並開始製作動畫。

videos.

視頻。

The first 168 people will use the link in the description will get a 2-month free trial!

前168名使用描述中的鏈接的人將獲得2個月的免費試用!

So click on that link and sign up!

所以點擊那個鏈接，報名吧!

That's it for today, thanks for watching and I will see you in the next video if robots

今天就到這裡了，謝謝大家的觀看，我們在下一個視頻中再見，如果機器人

ain't going to take my job.

不會搶走我的工作