Ah, murderous second wave is underway on dso time for a stringent national lock down J.

D.

C D.

Carefully, he has to pay reviews clear echoes of France's first wave as travel restrictions return.

But there are differences.

This one will initially last for five weeks on schools on essential workplaces will remain open.

Some of the toughest measures in Europe as Germany for long a model in handling the virus also announced a dramatic tightening off restrictions.

Eyes follow conclave.

The new measures by such close neighbors will intensify pressure on Boris Johnson to toughen restrictions on this side of the channel.

The UK is, after all, projected to be a few weeks behind.

France on the scientific advisory group for Emergencies is warning that the second wave could last longer than the first in the spring, The UK daily death rate quickly shot up to just over 1000 day before slowly coming down since September, death have bean on the up again On now, scientists fear they will rise to 500 a day by mid November.

The numbers could then plateau.

We're already seeing a steady increase in infections, hospitalizations, and deaths, but at a far slower rate than we saw in March, maybe doubling every 2 to 3 weeks.

But it is going carrying on in spite off the measures that have taken place.

So this is going to carry on increasing.

It's quite plausible that they will carry on really throughout the winter.

I think it's gonna look much more like a ah bad flu season, which is spread over the whole of the winter rather than being enormously packed in like the first wave of this epidemic.

A significant moment for Boris Johnson as his own scientists.

One of the potency off the second wave on political pressure to after the used to mighty powers introduced nationwide measures.

Downing Street is watching developments across the channel with care.

But for now, the prime minister believes that targeted regional restrictions are the best approach over here way need to look carefully what other nations are doing, but recognizing that this government is up against it once again.

But we need to learn lessons from that first time round, understand that there may be a circuit breaker or another lock down, but actually we're keeping more people alive at the moment there's medicines available.

We're all more disciplined in what we're doing on what I'd like to see is not an exit strategy of such.

That won't come until we have a vaccine.

What we need is a plan.

For six months.

We're gonna have a tough winter.

There's no doubt about it.

We need a plan to take us to March.

That must include keeping the economy alive, looking at clever ways off, allowing us to go about our business.

Labor believes the new restrictions on the continent highlight weaknesses in number tens.

Co Vered response.

I think again it shows that Boris Johnson is behind the coronavirus curved.

He should have used this half term for a short time, limited circuit break here in the United Kingdom in England to get on top of the virus, to save lives, to stop the NHS being overwhelmed.

And the fear now is that because he's differing because he's delaying that he'll be forced into a longer, deeper, locked down later next month, for or in December again, it's because Boris Johnson, like in the spring, has been too slow to act on.

Eerie silence befell the City of Lights in the first lock Down on now.

A return to those dark days Nick.

What?

Well, I'm joined now by Robert West, the professor of Health Psychology University, College, London, who is also member of the behavioral science subgroup of Sage S B I B and clear Wenham, assistant professor of global health policy at the London School of Economics.

Good evening to you both.

First of all, Professor West in July, Boris Johnson said is my strong, sincere hope will be able to review outstanding restrictions and of a significant return to normality.

End of November, possibly in time for Christmas is not gonna happen, is it?

I'm afraid it isn't on, but unfortunately, this was foreseen.

You know, when the restrictions were eased, you know, people were saying they were eased too soon on DTI too much at one time.

Then, as things started to get worse, we needed to act much more quickly than we have done.

So in the beginning, let's look at the first way.

We were told that we to protect the NHS, but actually became the Corvette NHS.

And as we now know, cancer operations were canceled.

Cancer death rules we've heard tonight that Greater Manchester is again canceling cancer operations.

So is it time for more explicit message?

If you do not adhere?

Everyone knows some with cancer in the family.

There will be more cancer deaths if you do not adhere.

I mean, this is the thing.

What we're seeing from the evidence is that people are adhering toa what they're being told to do.

The problem isn't so much the adherence to the rules.

That problem is the rules onda fact that explicit nature.

Is it not time to more explicit in that message about cancer?

Well, I think it's very important to understand that the NHS was not protected last time.

It was absolutely catastrophic for the NHS on it will be again.

There's no question about that.

Um, but you know, independent sage now, Sage has said, you know that it really isn't acceptable to have a continuing rise in infection rates because, you know, we will see more hospitalizations and deaths on Duthie.

NHS, of course, will suffer as a consequence.

Frankly, in the midst of deep winter might not be able to cope.

I mean, it was seen as a triumph that we weren't using the Nightingale Hospitals.

But actually, that's not Nestle a triumph for other kinds of illnesses as well.

No, I mean, you know, we will see.

We've already seen that there were substantial excess deaths not directly caused by co vid, and there will be more to come clear when.

Why do you think people are often not adhering to the majors?

Is it the fact that they're not scared or they're too scared of?

They've got competing scared.

Nous is, for example, you know, they're they're scared of covert.

On the one hand, they're scared of a lot during the other.

They're scared financially.

I think it's a mix of all those things.

I think some people are fed up of being where we are fed up of off.

Being in this kind of quasi state that we've seen in the last few months, I think others simply can't afford to go into to isolate.

We've seen a lot of data coming out showing people who aren't they good bye bye, These isolation requests because they have to get to work.

And I think also we've got it.

We had a government whose bean, you know, encouraging people to go out over the summer.

Let's not forget that the government we're encouraging people to go out and, you know, eat out and go back to work on trying to get people to socialize again on.

So there's really some mixed messages coming people are trying to have to grapple with at the moment.

But now and today we've got the stubbornly high number in the early 300 expected to rise.

It's about 500 in daily deaths.

Now is the time, surely to have trust between the government and the public.

And why does the public not trust the government?

What I mean, some some challenges in the risk communication across the course, this pandemic.

I think that, you know Johnson's message at the beginning of this would be out of this by Christmas was unrealistic, and I think he needed to prepare people better for actually, this is gonna be a long time tour out of this.

And you know, nobody wants that aunt.

So it's not a political astute or savvy thing to say it's not good.

It's not gonna win you, you know, a crowd.

But that's the reality, and I think we now need to get that messaging right to prepare people for what's going to be a long winter, potentially a long 2021 on Also prepare people for the fact that the vaccine isn't necessarily the silver bullet and, you know, assumes we get a vaccine.

It's going to take time to distribute it, to roll it out.

So I think we need to really focus in on how the government is communicating, what the reality of the next few months.

And here it might look like.

What is the reality?

Robert west of the next few months?

Is the reality to follow France and Germany into a national lock down?

Yes, I think that it would be remarkable if the government sort of held out.

Unfortunately, the longer leaves it, the longer the lock down will have to be and the more people will die ahead of that on.

Do you know it's really painful?

But the other thing I found myself advising the government on this and you are the one that saying, Look, get into that lock down.

No, Well, you know, scientists advised governments decide, but the other thing that's really important to say about this is that the test trace and isolate system has to be up to standard, and it isn't.

And that's been the really catastrophic failure over the summer and since then is not getting that system in place because lockdowns don't work by themselves.

They just buy you time.

It's interesting as a behavioral psychologist looking at, you know, we have now got this mixture of tears, you know, and proliferation of tears.

Five.

In Scotland, 34 Here is your sense that that just doesn't work all these different tiers.

It's not going to work, and the problem is that if you have the infection rate rising across the country, which it is, then you might be in Tier one now.

But you're going to be in Tier two later, and it's much better if you have the whole country, Um, in one boat, a zit were controlling the infection in the same way.

So I want to ask this to both of you.

How do you create a new social contract between the government and people?

How do you create a new message about this?

I think that the government has to accept that it's got it wrong.

Other governments have said that.

You know, you've got to be willing to accept that you've got things wrong.

You've got to be honest with people.

You've got to be transparent, and you've got to have a very clear messaging about what needs to be done on why it needs to be done.

But we understand clear when them, uh, water politically Tau understands that the government is not minded to go into national lockdowns.

Is that no mistake?

I think it's difficult.

I mean, nobody wants to lock down.

I don't think anyone in the UK wants to go into lock down again because, you know, in general, but I think the reality is there's little choice and I I agree that we know we need to level with people and tell them that you know, the tear was an opportunity to demonstrate that we could get this under control on the fact that people haven't been following it.

The fact that people are confused about what they're supposed to be doing is simply, you know, showing us that there's not really another way than a national law.

But is there is there a question that if people do not feel financially secure, If people do not feel that they can actually stay at home and feed their family, they'll do anything to make sure that they can.

Absolutely.

And that's why we have to think about this, not purely from the epidemiological case days.

If we've also got to look at making sure there are economic stimulus, package is in hand, making sure people have got the resources in place to be able to lock down both of individuals or businesses on, We have to take a much more holistic view off what the impact off a lock down will be.

It will be regressive.

They always are locked down.

We've seen across the world had significant social and economic costs.

But we have to weigh that up against the reality off.

You know, lots and lots more people dying, which is something we can't live with.

Absolutely.

And that's the third part of the package.

So you have the circuit breaker or the firebreak you have.

You buy time to give you a decent test, trace and isolate system on.

You have good, adequate financial support for people so that they can actually obey the rules on that's you know, those three things are critical.

Thank you both very much indeed.