That's according to a report by the advisory group Sage, which says there around four times as many people catching Covert 19 than it was prepared for.

It comes as the Office for National Statistics estimates that over half a million people in England have had coronavirus in the last week.

That's one in 100 people.

The head of the N S A N Diamond has described the pictures gloomy Is the virus is moving very quickly through the population?

Today's figures will increase pressure on the government for wider national restrictions.

Health Editor Hugh Pym reports preparing for a bleak winter hospitals gnome or co vid cases air on the way.

Some are extremely busy already on.

The outlook today has got darker.

A comprehensive survey by the Office for National Statistics, testing those with them without symptoms of the virus in local communities suggests there are steep increases in some areas.

The head of the O.

N s gave me his assessment of where things now stand with co vid 19.

I've got to be fairly gloomy, Andi, I do believe that we are continuing to increase.

I think we need to be absolutely tireless in everybody across the country following the rules, because if not, then I fear that the virus is going to exponentially increase Theo in estimates.

How many people in the community had the virus In the period leading up to October, the 23rd, the most relative to the local population were in Northern Ireland, the least in Scotland.

But there were big variations within England, with many Maurin the Northwest relative to the population than in the southeast of England.

C.

O.

N s did say that in the northeast of England, there was evidence of a slowdown and slight reduction in case numbers on a bigger gap with the North West and Yorkshire and the Humber regions.

But officials say overall things are going in the wrong direction, and minutes of meetings of the government's Sage advisory committee reveal a pessimistic mood.

A paper on October, the 14th from a group tracking the spread of the virus says that in England the number of daily deaths is now in line with the levels in the reasonable worst case on is almost certain to exceed this within the next two weeks.

That worst case scenario is 85,000 co vid deaths over the winter.

Though officials say government interventions can reduce that.

Ministers at Westminster say the system of local restrictions is the right response.

We really need to lean into this, and that is the way we avoid the more drastic measures which we don't want to take because of the impact that they would have on the economy.

It must be right to take a focused, localized approach where the virus is the strongest than tohave the rather blunt tool of the nationwide blanket locked down.

But there are calls for a national lock down in England.

Birmingham is widely tipped to be moved up to the very high risk alert level.

But the council leaders says more needs to be done to prevent avoidable deaths.

I don't believe that I moved to Tier three is the answer because I don't think it will be enough.

I'm of the opinion that England needs to follow France, Germany and Wales with the national circuit breaker as quickly as possible In parts of Scotland, face coverings will be required for teachers and older secondary pupils in classrooms from Monday described by ministers has strengthened guidance, one more response from a national administration to the spread of the virus across the UK Hugh Pym, BBC News Well more areas in England have moved or about to move into Tier three.

That's the highest alert level.

By the end of the weekend, almost 20% of the country's population will be living under that top tier of measures.

Today it was the turn of Nottinghamshire, meaning bars and pubs have had to close, as well as betting shops, saunas to two parlors on nail salons.

From there, Dan Johnson reports last night, Nottingham City Center, just before England's toughest restrictions took hold across the county.

I'm disappointed to see those scenes on.

What we really need to do is for everybody to play their part in bringing this virus down, and that's extends to everybody in our communities, whether young or old.

On further north in Mansfield Way found Ray just back from a trip over the border.

The book is is open, so I like a little bit on the old horses because everything the book is a shot here, So you've just crossed into a new border.

Yes, that's breaking the rules.

Why?

And I love to do that.

You're not supposed to cross out, but they didn't tell me that.

They didn't tell me that, but on the pubs are open over there.

The other point.

I have had a point.

So you think the rules are not clear?

Well, the rules are clear, but they're there for breaking.

But some are staying in on the town centers.

Quiet.

It's not locked down.

It's just three into it.

So it's trying to tell the customers to come into the marketplace getting back down here because they've got it in the mind that it's actually locked down.

But it's not.

You think it's panicking, panicking?

It's crazy.

I would like to understand why I can go and have my head on me to have this morning, although it looks a mess.

But you can't have my nails done.

And the people who rely on that income a feeling short changed.

There's no evidence to say that there's any transmission of any cove it in any Salam's, so I don't understand why they've picked on ours.

These restrictions are mostly in place for a month initially, but What, then?

Could they be relaxed?

Or will they potentially have to be tightened further on?

What if life has to carry on like this?

What impact could that have?

Connie is feeling it after months of shielding in West Yorkshire, where Tier three will extend from Monday.

Social isolation is, you know, it's very damaging it, Zaveri wearing.

It's tiring.

It's stressful.

Back in North Nottinghamshire, some want to Seymour rules.

National lock down, just like down everything at the minute.

Just basically clear the virus or there's no point closing on corn.

Well, if they find that April and then I, I think need a circuit breaker.

With the virus still spreading, the patchwork of rules will roll out further.

Constraining Mawr communities.

More families on more lives.

Don Johnson BBC News Mansfield The latest government figures on Corona virus show there were 274 deaths reported.

That's people who died within 28 days of a positive cove in 19 test.

It means on average, In the past week, 237 deaths were announced every day.

It takes the total number of deaths so far across the UK to 46 229.

Well, Hugh Pym is with me now, Hugh, Just how serious is the situation?

We should be clear that the our number anything above one shows the virus is spreading anything below one shows it's declining, the Rangers come down a little bit, and officials say that could reflect measures which have already bean taken.

But anything above one means it's still increasing.

Ondas, we've been told today by officials.

That's not a good place to be.

They expect cases, hospital admissions and, sadly, deaths to carry on rising.

And it's emerged that some senior officials think a two weeks circuit breaker, which was being proposed, wouldn't be enough now.

And it needs something longer on more extensive.

But of course, officials advise, ministers decide they have to work out what's best for society.

Is the whole people's well being on the economy as well a Xeni further restrictions?

But I am told some in Whitehall ministers are getting increasingly concerned about what the data is saying.

Okay, you many thanks.

Health editor Hugh Pym there, Let's speak now to our deputy political editor, Vicky Young, who's at Westminster for us and Vicky, the government has strongly opposed a national locked down.

Are there signs that it's wavering?

There's no doubt that pressure is really growing on the prime minister, his approach looking increasingly isolated.

Really, if you look at what's happening elsewhere in Europe, countries like Germany, France, Belgium, closer to home, Wales and Northern Ireland all introducing measures much closer to the lock down that we had in the spring so far in England, though they're sticking to this tiered approach, I think the problem is the virus is spreading very quickly on that system, is responding rather slowly.

It's proving pretty cumbersome and that there are some who think that even the restrictions in that tightest tier three are simply not going to be enough now.

I'm told that no final decisions have been made, but there's no doubt over the weekend the government will be looking very closely at all of the data.

One government source saying tonight that the country has reached a crunch point.

Ministers have said they'll do everything they can to avoid a national lock down in England, but they have never ruled it out.

The prime minister has some very difficult decisions to make on time is not on his side.

Vickie.

Thank you very much.