Abiomed insists his country will not descend into chaos.

That's despite reports off heavy casualties in fighting between the military and regional forces in Ethiopia's to grind region that's in the north of the country near the border to Eritrea now.

Ethiopia's federal government launched the offensive against forces off the to Dry People's Liberation Front last Wednesday, blaming them for an attack on a military base.

Now the TPLF party dominated Ethiopian politics for decades.

That was until Abby Ahmed came into office in 2018.

Since then, the two dry leadership has claimed the federal government is unfairly targeting their ethnic group in corruption crackdowns.

For his part, RB accuses the TPLF off attempting to destabilize the country, intent on perpetuating a culture off infinity and restoring the undue privilege they enjoyed in the past.

The typical left All guards have continuously mounted boss covered and over attempts to undermine the people off Ethiopia in our new administration.

Now that's a great leadership, have promised to continue fighting until the federal government agrees to negotiate.

But members of parliament in Addis Ababa say they do not recognize the TPLF as a legitimate administration and have voted to abolish the state government For more on this, I'm joined by William Davidson.

He's a senior analyst for Ethiopia at the Crisis Group.

He joins me from EDIs.

Welcome, William.

What more do we know about the military operation and away in to dry?

Well, we know that the fighting is concentrated in west to gray.

That's where the Federal forces primarily entered from Amhara Region s.

So there's some sort of active engagement in West Tigray.

Reports of significant Well, it's fairly significant casualties coming into Amhara health clinics, mostly off federal troops.

But it may well be the case that Tigre and casualties are being treated in Tigre, and it was very limited information coming out of Tigre because of the communications blackout.

Other than that, no reported recent new active engagements.

But the word the air strikes and military targets around Mukalla, the capital of too great A couple of days ago, William, what's the feeling around whether or not regional leaders integrate?

I have left Prime Minister A.

B.

Ahmed no choice but to send the military in Well, that's obviously the view from the federal government on DSA, Porters of the military intervention very much.

The narrative is that your ground forces attacked a military base on also in the west of Tigre and also around Mecca Lay the regional capital on.

They say that's just simply unacceptable.

But I think the key point to understand here is that you know there is this communications blackout integrate.

It's being very hard to verify information on.

Also, there is a long political build up to this conflict where there is a possibility on both sides to have taken measures to avoid a part of conflict that didn't occur.

Way ended up in the situation where regional and federal governments called each other unlawful, and that's what led to the conflict.

And how close does this conflict bring Ethiopia to a civil war?

Well, I think that depends on your definition off Civil war again the federal government is is talking about This is a sort of, you know, sort of limited law enforcement operation simply to remove the TPLF leadership, the leadership of Tigray region.

Um but the problem, of course, is that that regional leadership is in command of a powerful regional security apparatus.

Elements of the federal military integrate seemed to have sided with the Tigre government.

Or at least they're not supporting the federal intervention S O.

That means that we actually have a very serious and potentially sustained clash.

Eso It's not a full blown civil war.

It's certainly not crossing anything like the whole of Ethiopia.

But it is a very serious clash between the federal government on what is a relatively well armed regional government.

And some people would obviously classify that as a civil war in and of itself, right?

And could this be resolved diplomatically?

If so, what kind of compromises would need to be made?

Well, of course, there is always hope that these things could be solved diplomatically.

And there's certainly efforts both within Ethiopia and outside to encourage the parties on to come to the negotiating table.

And we know it's certain preconditions.

That's something which the degree of leadership is willing to do.

The problem is that the parties on these parties were formally part of the same ruling coalition on then.

Since 2018, they have gradually grown into bitter opponents, ending up with this very stark constitutional debate over the legitimacy off Tigre, running its own regional election now they have entered the conflict phase.

So at the moment there is no none of the warring parties air really pursuing a negotiated solution.

The first step, I think to do so would be some sort of immediate, unconditional ceasefire.

Then the parties would have to agree that they are at least legitimate enough authorities, um, to talk to each other because at the moment they are simply treating each other as enemy competent.

So we need to get re past that stage to get some sort of talks going.

At the moment, it doesn't look likely, but who knows?

If the conflict gets protracted, hopefully both sides will start looking more seriously.

The prospects of dialogue and international community and the regional leaders can help put pressure on the parties to do that.

All right, that's crisis groups.

William Davidson in Addis Ababa.

Thank you, William.