And that's Johnny Depp's shoulder.

這是他的肩膀。

And that's Johnny Depp's famous shoulder tattoo.

這是他肩上著名的紋身。

Some of you might know that, in 1990,

你們有些人可能知道，戴普在1990年,

Depp got engaged to Winona Ryder,

和薇諾娜•瑞德曾訂婚,

and he had tattooed on his right shoulder

並在他的右肩上刺上

"Winona forever."

「永遠的薇諾娜」。

And then three years later --

3年後--

which in fairness, kind of is forever by Hollywood standards --

從好萊塢的標準來說應該算得上是「 永遠 」--

they broke up,

他們分手了,

and Johnny went and got a little bit of repair work done.

然後强尼改了一下他的紋身 。

And now his shoulder says, "Wino forever."

現在他肩上說的是 「 永遠的酒鬼 」。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

So like Johnny Depp,

像强尼一樣,

and like 25 percent of Americans

也像25%的

between the ages of 16 and 50,

年齡在16到50歲間的美國人一樣,

I have a tattoo.

我也是有紋身的。

I first started thinking about getting it in my mid-20s,

我第一次想去弄一個紋身是在我25歲左右,

but I deliberately waited a really long time.

我是已經刻意等了很久的。

Because we all know people

要知道很多人在17歲的時候

who have gotten tattoos when they were 17

就想弄一個了,

or 19 or 23

或者19歲, 23歲,

and regretted it by the time they were 30.

並且對此都在自己30歲前就後悔。

That didn't happen to me.

但是這卻沒有發生在我身上 。

I got my tattoo when I was 29,

我是在29時繡上了紋身,

and I regretted it instantly.

然後立刻就後悔了 。

And by "regretted it,"

我說的後悔是

I mean that I stepped outside of the tattoo place --

我腳跟剛剛離開紋身店--

this is just a couple miles from here

就發生在離這裡幾英哩外的

down on the Lower East Side --

下東城區--

and I had a massive emotional meltdown in broad daylight

大白天就歇斯底理、徹底崩潰了,

on the corner of East Broadway and Canal Street.

就在東百老匯和運河街相交的轉角 。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Which is a great place to do it because nobody cares.

那真是個做這事的好地方，因為沒人理你 。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And then I went home that night, and I had an even larger emotional meltdown,

那晚回到家，再一次更加嚴重的情感崩潰,

which I'll say more about in a minute.

詳細狀況我等會兒再說。

And this was all actually quite shocking to me,

那次的事真的是把我自己嚇到了,

because prior to this moment,

因為在之前

I had prided myself

我一直為我自己

on having absolutely no regrets.

肯定不會後悔感到自豪。

I made a lot of mistakes

我曾經犯了很多錯,

and dumb decisions, of course.

一直在做錯的決定,

I do that hourly.

每小時一次吧。

But I had always felt like, look, you know,

但是我也總是會認為

I made the best choice I could make

我已經是做出了最好的決定,

given who I was then,

根據我那時的心態,

given the information I had on hand.

那時的想法,

I learned a lesson from it.

我從中也學習了一些東西。

It somehow got me to where I am in life right now.

我的人生也是因為它才完整 。

And okay, I wouldn't change it.

總之我不會想著要改變它 。

In other words, I had drunk our great cultural Kool-Aid about regret,

換句話說, 我已經是我們文化中關於後悔教導的狂信者,

which is that lamenting things that occurred in the past

他們認為為過去的事哀傷

is an absolute waste of time,

是一種完全沒有意義的事,

that we should always look forward and not backward,

我們應該向前看而非向後看,

and that one of the noblest and best things we can do

在生活中儘量不要後悔,

is strive to live a life free of regrets.

這是我們能做的最好的事。

This idea is nicely captured by this quote:

以下的引用句非常恰當的描述這個道理:

"Things without all remedy

「 沒有挽救方法的事

should be without regard;

就不要關注了;

what's done is done."

事情做了就做了」 。

And it seems like kind of an admirable philosophy at first --

一開始這看起來的確是很令人深省的哲理--

something we might all agree to sign onto ...

一些我們都應遵守的信條..

until I tell you who said it.

直至我告訴你這句話是誰說 。

Right, so this is Lady MacBeth

這是麥克白的夫人,

basically telling her husband to stop being such a wuss

說這句話只不過是用來勸麥克白不要像個膽小鬼,

for feeling bad about murdering people.

為殺人而感到罪惡感 。

And as it happens, Shakespeare was onto something here,

莎翁在這裡應該也如他以往

as he generally was.

在說些有內涵的話 。

Because the inability to experience regret

因為沒有能力去經歷後悔,

is actually one of the diagnostic characteristics

這其實是反社會的典型的

of sociopaths.

診斷特徵。

It's also, by the way, a characteristic of certain kinds of brain damage.

同時這也是大腦某部份損傷的特徵。

So people who have damage

那些

to their orbital frontal cortex

眼眶額皮質受損的人

seem to be unable to feel regret

看起來就算做了

in the face of even obviously very poor decisions.

再差的決定也不會後悔。

So if, in fact, you want to live a life free of regret,

所以, 如果你不想過充滿後悔的生活,

there is an option open to you.

你可以去做一個

It's called a lobotomy.

前額腦皮質切除手術。

But if you want to be fully functional

但是如果你想要自己機能完整,

and fully human

是一個完整的人,

and fully humane,

是一個完整的靈魂,

I think you need to learn to live, not without regret, but with it.

我想你要學的是怎樣在後悔中生存, 而非是擺脫它。

So let's start off by defining some terms.

接下來讓我們開始先給一些專屬名詞定義吧 。

What is regret?

那麼什麽是後悔?

Regret is the emotion we experience

後悔是一種情緒,

when we think that our present situation

是一種當我們認為我們假如

could be better or happier

在以前做了不同的事,

if we had done something different in the past.

現在的情況會更好的話的情緒,

So in other words, regret requires two things.

那麼後悔是需要兩個前提條件的。

It requires, first of all, agency -- we had to make a decision in the first place.

首先它是需要一個媒介--你必須在之前做一個決定。

And second of all, it requires imagination.

然後, 它需要的是想像力。

We need to be able to imagine going back and making a different choice,

我們要能想像我們回到過去並且做了不同的決定,

and then we need to be able to kind of spool this imaginary record forward

接下來我們要把這段想像稍微前移一點

and imagine how things would be playing out in our present.

並想像一下現在事情會變成怎麼 。

And in fact, the more we have of either of these things --

只要我們這兩個條件中的一個越多--

the more agency and the more imagination

就是, 越多的媒介或者越多的想像

with respect to a given regret,

就有越多的後悔,

the more acute that regret will be.

後悔感就越強烈 。

So let's say for instance

就比如,

that you're on your way to your best friend's wedding

你在你好朋友婚禮的路上,

and you're trying to get to the airport and you're stuck in terrible traffic,

正在趕飛機, 結果遇上了堵車,

and you finally arrive at your gate

最後你到了你的登機口

and you've missed your flight.

發現你錯過了你的航班。

You're going to experience more regret in that situation

在這種情形下, 你將會感到更多的後悔感,

if you missed your flight by three minutes

假如你只不過是誤機了3分鐘

than if you missed it by 20.

而非20分鐘 。

Why?

爲什麽呢?

Well because, if you miss your flight by three minutes,

因為你只是錯過了飛機3分鐘,

it is painfully easy to imagine

對你來說是痛苦的想像,

that you could have made different decisions

你可以做了別的不同選擇

that would have led to a better outcome.

並且有個很好的結果是很簡單的 。

"I should have taken the bridge and not the tunnel.

「 我應該從橋上走而不是走隧道 。

I should have gone through that yellow light."

我應該衝過那黃燈 。」

These are the classic conditions that create regret.

這些都是很自然的引發後悔的因素 。

We feel regret when we think we are responsible

當我們認為我們是應該

for a decision that came out badly,

對這個明明可以變好

but almost came out well.

卻弄砸的決定, 我們便後悔 。

Now within that framework,

在這樣的一個框架中,

we can obviously experience regret about a lot of different things.

我們很顯然會經歷各種悔恨。

This session today is about behavioral economics.

今天的話題是關於行為經濟學 。

And most of what we know about regret

我們所知道有關後悔的一切

comes to us out of that domain.

也都是來自那個領域的 。

We have a vast body of literature

我們有一堆關於消費者

on consumer and financial decisions

和財政決策, 和關於他們

and the regrets associated with them --

對這些決策後悔的書籍--

buyer's remorse, basically.

基本上主要是買家的懊悔 。

But then finally, it occurred to some researchers to step back

到最後, 這樣的一個問題會出現在那些研究者腦中

and say, well okay, but overall,

並說, 既然這樣了,

what do we regret most in life?

那麼什麽是我們一輩子最後悔的事情呢?

Here's what the answers turn out to look like.

這是他們總結這個問題的答案 。

So top six regrets --

後悔排行--

the things we regret most in life:

我們一輩子最後悔的六件事:

Number one by far, education.

目前為止, 教育排在第一。

33 percent of all of our regrets

我們一生百分之33

pertain to decisions we made about education.

的後悔都會與自己的教育有關。

We wish we'd gotten more of it.

我們總希望曾經能多學一點 。

We wish we'd taken better advantage of the education that we did have.

我們總希望曾經更好的利用我們獲得的教育。

We wish we'd chosen to study a different topic.

我們希望曾經能選擇學另外一個科目 。

Others very high on our list of regrets

另外幾個很“熱”的後悔包括

include career, romance, parenting,

我們的職業, 愛情, 教養方式,

various decisions and choices about our sense of self

對自己的各種評價和選擇,

and how we spend our leisure time --

還有我們業餘時間的耗費--

or actually more specifically,

或更準確的事,

how we fail to spend our leisure time.

我們沒有好好利用業餘時間 。

The remaining regrets

接下來的後悔

pertain to these things:

就是涉及:

finance, family issues unrelated to romance or parenting,

金錢, 愛情和養育之外的家庭問題,

health, friends,

健康, 朋友,

spirituality and community.

信仰, 組織 。

So in other words, we know most of what we know about regret

換句話說, 我們通過研究經濟

by the study of finance.

知道了我們一輩子最後悔的事 。

But it turns out, when you look overall at what people regret in life,

但是當你仔細看看我們這輩子的遺憾時,

you know what, our financial decisions don't even rank.

我們的經濟問題不是那六個之一 。

They account for less than three percent of our total regrets.

他們僅僅是我們後悔中的百分之3 。

So if you're sitting there stressing

所以你假如坐在那裡

about large cap versus small cap,

比較著大杯子小杯子,

or company A versus company B,

或公司A 公司B,

or should you buy the Subaru or the Prius,

或者普銳斯還是斯巴魯的時候,

you know what, let it go.

你應該明白--隨便它吧。

Odds are, you're not going to care in five years.

賠率是五年後你不會後悔那些事情 。

But for these things that we actually do really care about

但是那些你真正關心的問題

and do experience profound regret around,

和那深沉的懊悔,

what does that experience feel like?

那樣的經歷感覺是怎樣的?

We all know the short answer.

我們都有一個簡短的答案 。

It feels terrible. Regret feels awful.

那感覺很糟糕 。很難受 。

But it turns out that regret feels awful

但那些令人痛苦的後悔

in four very specific and consistent ways.

一般都有四個共性 。

So the first consistent component of regret

後悔的第一個共性

is basically denial.

基本上便是否定 。

When I went home that night after getting my tattoo,

那天我繡了紋身回家,

I basically stayed up all night.

我一夜沒睡 。

And for the first several hours,

在一開始的幾個小時中,

there was exactly one thought in my head.

在我腦中就只有一個想法 。

And the thought was,

那就是

"Make it go away!"

「弄走它吧! 」

This is an unbelievably primitive emotional response.

就是這樣的難以置信的原始感情回應 。

I mean, it's right up there with, "I want my mommy!"

很直接的就是, 「 我想要我的媽媽」!

We're not trying to solve the problem.

我們並不是在想著如何解決問題 。

We're not trying to understand how the problem came about.

我們也不是在明白問題是從哪裡來的 。

We just want it to vanish.

我們就只是想讓它消失 。

The second characteristic component of regret

第二個很典型的後悔成份

is a sense of bewilderment.

就是迷亂的感覺 。

So the other thing I thought about there in my bedroom that night

然後那晚我在我房裡想的第二件事情就是

was, "How could I have done that?

「 我是怎麼會做這個的?

What was I thinking?"

我當時在想些什麽呢?」

This real sense of alienation

這是種把我們從

from the part of us that made a decision we regret.

令我們後悔的決定分離出來的感覺 。

We can't identify with that part.

我們不想認同那個部份 。

We don't understand that part.

我們不想理解這部份 。

And we certainly don't have any empathy for that part --

我們甚至對這份沒有任何換位思考。

which explains the third consistent component of regret,

這就解釋了接下來的第三點,

which is an intense desire to punish ourselves.

那就是強烈的對自己的懲罰感。

That's why, in the face of our regret,

這就是爲什麽當我們面對自己的後悔時,

the thing we consistently say is, "I could have kicked myself."

我們總喜歡說一句話: 「 我真該踢自己一腳。」

The fourth component here

第四個成份

is that regret is what psychologists call perseverative.

就是心理學上的執拗 。

To perseverate means to focus obsessively and repeatedly

執拗就是強迫自己不斷地

on the exact same thing.

關注同一件事情 。

Now the effect of perseveration

執拗的效果就是

is to basically take these first three components of regret

把後悔的前三個效果

and put them on an infinite loop.

組合在一起然後變成一個無限的循環 。

So it's not that I sat there in my bedroom that night,

那晚我並不是坐在我臥室

thinking, "Make it go away."

想著:「 讓那玩意消失 。」

It's that I sat there and I thought,

而我是在這裡想著,

"Make it go away. Make it go away.

「 讓那東西消失消失

Make it go away. Make it go away."

消失消失」。

So if you look at the psychological literature,

當你在看心理學作品時,

these are the four consistent defining components of regret.

這就是定義後悔的四個部份 。

But I want to suggest that there's also a fifth one.

但是我想說這裡還有第五個 。

And I think of this

而且我認為

as a kind of existential wake-up call.

這是一種存在感的喚醒警訊 。

That night in my apartment,

那天夜我在公寓裡,

after I got done kicking myself and so forth,

在我踢打完我自己諸如此類後,

I lay in bed for a long time,

我在床上躺了很長時間,

and I thought about skin grafts.

我有想過皮膚移植 。

And then I thought about how,

就開始想如何弄到這筆錢呢

much as travel insurance doesn't cover acts of God,

但是就像旅行保險無法包括天災

probably my health insurance did not cover acts of idiocy.

同樣我的醫療保險也不可能為我的愚蠢買單

In point of fact, no insurance covers acts of idiocy.

再說 也不可能有保險會擔保愚蠢的行為

The whole point of acts of idiocy

所以得愚蠢的行為

is that they leave you totally uninsured;

他們一定都是完全無保的

they leave you exposed to the world

它們讓你暴露在這個大世界中

and exposed to your own vulnerability and fallibility

暴露你的軟弱你的愚笨

in face of, frankly, a fairly indifferent universe.

坦白地說就是暴露這個相當冷漠的世界

This is obviously an incredibly painful experience.

這很顯然是很難受的經歷

And I think it's particularly painful for us now in the West

並且在現在這個被

in the grips of what I sometimes think of

Control-Z文化所包裹的世界中

as a Control-Z culture --

這種經歷將更加痛心

Control-Z like the computer command,

Control-Z就是電腦指令

undo.

撤銷

We're incredibly used to not having to face

雖然難以置信但是我們都用它

life's hard realities, in a certain sense.

從某種程度中逃避現實中的艱難

We think we can throw money at the problem

我們想我們可以用錢解決問題

or throw technology at the problem --

或者用技術去解決

we can undo and unfriend

我們可以撤銷 撤銷人與人間的關係

and unfollow.

可以取消關注

And the problem is that there are certain things that happen in life

但是問題是生活中是有著

that we desperately want to change

我們十分想改變

and we cannot.

我們無法改變的事情

Sometimes instead of Control-Z,

就因這樣我們會用

we actually have zero control.

歸零來代替撤銷

And for those of us who are control freaks and perfectionists --