In addition to spreading Mawr quickly, it also now appears that there is some evidence that the new variant, the variant that was first identified in London and the Southeast may be associated with a higher degree off mortality.

Nerve tag minutes published today confirmed the potential danger.

Concluding the data suggests there is a realistic possibility that infection with the O.

C.

B 117 the new UK variant is associated with an increased risk of death.

The science remains uncertain, though, with some scientists expressing significant skepticism about the data available on the vaccines do still work on this variant.

Nonetheless, it may raise new questions over the decision not locked down nationally in mid to late December when the variants greater transmissibility became known.

But this may not be the last domestic variant we see.

Newsnight understands that Public health England, a nerve attack, have been investigating several new mutations across the country.

One is based in Liverpool, where I've been told there have been some 48 cases of a new mutation which contained E 484 K mutation common to the Brazil and South African variants on which seemed to make vaccines less effective.

And crucially, it's happened here.

Not been imported.

Public Health England tells us we're currently investigating a cluster of cases in Liverpool of Kobe.

19.

All cases are linked, and further genome testing and public health investigations are underway.

There's no reason to believe that these new clusters pose any serious threat right now, but it is indicative to the cat and mouse game we now face.

Yeah, I would say 2021 is the year of the variant and vaccines, especially the Mara a vaccine manufacturers have said within weeks they can change their vaccines.

So then it becomes a race of how quickly can we redesign the vaccines, roll them out and get them into people's arms faster than let's say a new variant could spread.

And so I don't see any way around in the coming year Thio having travel restrictions in place because that's one of the few ways to protect against variants coming in.

Once we deal with a domestic issue of getting the numbers low the next year or two to have travel restrictions, well, there is no easy way out of this crisis if I'm completely honest.

I mean, this is a global problem.

Even if we suppress it here effectively and vaccinate everyone, it could be circulating somewhere else in the world.

And all it takes is for someone to get on a plane ride and come here.

And if we have everything open and for it to spread permanent travel restrictions will not sit comfortably with the Tory benches on.

Nor will the prospect of a much lengthy away for lifting restrictions than they feared.

Being realistic, it seems to me unlikely that we'll be looking at relaxing restrictions in any kind of serious sense before the end of March on then.

From that point, it's going to then have to be very, very gradual.

Vaccination will start to play a role, but it's going to have to be a gradual easing out of those restrictions.

Otherwise, you know, if we pull the plug, is it?

Well, we'll get a resurgence and we'll have to be re introducing measures again.

That extends even to the most basic lifting that of schools.

I'm told that a preliminary estimate disgusting government suggests that if schools return after February half term, even if other restrictions remain in place, hospital numbers would remain at very high levels.

More comprehensive work modeling The question of schools is to be undertaken in the next week or so, but it is certain that hospital numbers are so high that there is a very little room for maneuver.

I think listening to this evening the penny has now dropped with the government.

They realize that there's no quick fix to this.

There's no one stop shop solution.

It requires a lot of different things coming together and very steady progress on not lifting things quickly and making the mistakes that we made before.

It's been the view that vaccines are the silver bullet and they do remain the way out.