take you seriously!

認真對待

Yes, We can print money, but we should do that responsibly.

是的，我們可以印錢，但我們應該負責任地印錢。

We cant randomly print money and just give everyone some cash.

我們不能隨便印錢，然後給每個人一些現金。

That's not how the economy works, leave alone capitalism.

經濟不是這樣運作的，更不用說資本主義了。

Remember when Andrew Yang proposed the UBI Universal basic income, and people bombarded

還記得楊元慶提出UBI全民基本收入的時候，大家轟轟烈烈的

him with billions of arguments why that's never going to work, but then 2020 is like

他用數十億的論點為什麼這永遠不會成功，但隨後2020年就像。

- let me prove all of these people wrong.

- 讓我證明這些人都是錯的。

The fed literally pumped over 3 trillion dollars into the economy.

美聯儲真的給經濟注入了超過3萬億美元的資金。

The government distributed cash to ordinary people.

政府向老百姓發放現金。

Everyone got their stimulus checks, which they ended up spending on amazon buying useless

每個人都得到了他們的刺激支票， 他們最終花費在亞馬遜購買無用的

stuff.

的東西。

Well, not everyone, at the end of the day, most people had to put food on the table one

嗯，不是每個人，在一天結束的時候，大多數人不得不把食物放在桌子上一

way or another.

的方式或其他。

That suppose to cause huge inflation, right?

這應該會引起巨大的通貨膨脹吧？

But it didn't, at least for now.

但它沒有，至少現在沒有。

The fed has been around for over 100 years, and it has created a lot of money since then.

美聯儲已經存在了100多年，從那時起，它創造了很多錢。

However, 1 in every 5 dollars was created last year.

然而，去年每5美元中就有1美元被創造出來。

Throwing that much money into the economy suppose to create not just inflation but hyperinflation.

把這麼多錢投入到經濟中，應該不僅會造成通貨膨脹，還會造成惡性通貨膨脹。

Have you seen pictures of people carrying bags of money just to buy bread or kids using

你見過人們揹著錢袋只為買麵包的照片，或者孩子們用

cash to play around in Zimbabwe?

現金在辛巴維玩轉？

That's what hyperinflation is.

這就是高通脹。

So why was inflation just a little over 2 percent last year?

那麼為什麼去年的通脹率只有2%多一點呢？

Why does the fed keep printing even though it knows it can cause high inflation?

為什麼美聯儲明明知道會引起高通脹，還要繼續印鈔？

How the fed created the biggest financial bubble in history?

美聯儲如何製造了歷史上最大的金融保麗龍？

When is this bubble going to crash?

這個保麗龍什麼時候才會崩潰？

And how is that going to impact the stock market?

這又會對股市產生怎樣的影響呢？

We will answer all of these questions and many more, but before we do that, give this

我們將回答所有這些問題以及更多的問題，但在這之前，給這個

video a thumbs and let the algorithm know that you enjoy our videos, and make sure to

視頻的大拇指，讓算法知道你喜歡我們的視頻，並確保

comment.

評論：

And now, let's get right into it!

現在，我們就開始吧!

the biggest financial bubble in history

史上最大的金融保麗龍

We have already explored how the economy works in previous videos, but let's just have a

我們在之前的視頻中已經探討了經濟的運作方式，但我們還是先來個

quick recap.

快速回顧。

The economy follows a cycle where it expands for a few years, then it peaks and slowly

經濟會遵循一個週期，在這個週期中，經濟會擴張幾年，然後達到頂峰，然後慢慢地。

starts falling into a recession, and the job of the federal reserve is to make sure that

開始陷入衰退，而聯邦儲備局的工作就是確保... ...

inflation doesn't rise too fast when the economy is booming by cutting the supply of money

削減貨幣供應量，經濟繁榮時，通貨膨脹率不會過快上升。

through high-interest rates for example, and when it falls into a recession, it makes sure

例如通過高利率，當它陷入經濟衰退時，它確保了

that the recession isn't too painful by flooding the market with cheap money to stimulate growth.

通過向市場注入廉價資金來刺激增長，使經濟衰退不至於太痛苦。

When interest rates are low, everyone jumps in to borrow money like in 2020.

當利率低的時候，大家都會像2020年那樣跳出來借錢。

Mortgage rates were so low that everyone who saved enough for the downpayment did take

房貸利率太低了，每個人只要攢夠了首付，就會拿著

a montage to the point where economists are warning us of another housing bubble.

一個蒙太奇到經濟學家警告我們會出現另一個房地產保麗龍的地步。

So, in the middle of a pandemic, when many people lost their jobs, struggled to pay bills,

所以，在一場大瘟疫中，當許多人失去工作，掙扎著支付賬單。

house prices are rising.

房價在上漲。

Why?

為什麼？

Because when too much money chases too little goods, prices increase, or the value of existing

因為當過多的資金追逐過少的商品時，價格就會上漲，或者說現有的價值就會增加

dollars fall.

美元下跌。

The number of houses in the market didn't change much, but since so many more people

市場上的房子數量並沒有太大變化，但由於多了這麼多人

decided to take a mortgage, the demand increased, which is why prices increased as well.

決定辦理按揭貸款，需求量增加，所以價格也隨之上漲。

But why is that a problem?

但為什麼會有這樣的問題呢？

Every time we had a crisis, the fed stepped in and saved the economy by pumping trillions

每次我們有危機的時候，美聯儲都會介入，通過注入數萬億的資金來拯救經濟。

of dollars into the economy or lowering interest rates to the bare minimum.

美元投入經濟或將利率降至最低。

It did that last year.

去年也是如此。

It pumped trillions more back in 2008 to prevent the economy from collapsing and the crises

早在2008年，它又注入了數萬億的資金，以防止經濟崩潰和危機的發生。

before that.

在此之前，。

So some experts believe that we are living in a bubble that will sooner or later burst

所以有專家認為，我們生活在一個遲早會破滅的保麗龍中

and takedown with it the entire economy.

並連帶著整個經濟。

Take a look at this chart.

看看這張圖。

Since we have abandoned the gold standard in 1971, inflation has been rising through

自1971年我們放棄金本位以來，通貨膨脹率一直在不斷上升，通過。

the roof.

屋頂。

It's rising as if there is no tomorrow, and with more stimulus bills, that chart will

它的上漲就像沒有明天一樣，隨著更多刺激法案的出臺，這張圖會

rise faster, especially when the fed pumped into the economy over 3 trillion dollars this

漲得更快，尤其是當美聯儲向經濟注入超過3萬億美元時，這

year.

年。

A single US dollar today worth just 4 percent of a dollar in 1914.

今天的一美元只值1914年一美元的4%。

$100 in 1914 is equivalent in purchasing power to about $2,615.82 today, an increase of $2,515.82

1914年的100美元相當於今天的購買力約2,615.82美元，增加了2,515.82美元。

over 107 years.

107年以上。

This means that today's prices are 26.16 times higher than average prices since 1914.

這意味著，今天的價格是1914年以來平均價格的26.16倍。

Will that bubble burst this year, next year, ten years from now!

今年、明年、十年後，這個保麗龍會不會破滅!

I don't know, and no one knows.

我不知道，也沒有人知道。

It might just never happen.

可能永遠不會發生。

The fed successfully kept the inflation at around 2 to 3 percent.

美聯儲成功地將通脹率控制在2%至3%左右。

It might be able to do that for another 100 years, and what happens 100 years from now

它可能還能再做100年，100年後會怎麼樣呢？

isn't something we should be too worried about now.

是不是我們現在應該太擔心。

But let's find out if the stock market is overvalued today because if it, it's going

但讓我們來看看今天的股市是否被高估，因為如果它，它要

to crash, or at least we will witness a correction?

崩盤，或者至少我們將見證一個修正？

Will the stock market crash?

股市會不會崩盤？

When the stock market crashed last year, why it suddenly jumped back and started rising?

去年股市暴跌時，為什麼突然跳回，開始上漲？

Because the federal reserve lowered interest to 0 and started buying bonds.

因為美聯儲把利息降到了0，開始購買債券。

A bond is basically a piece of paper that a government or a company issues that says

債券基本上是政府或公司發行的一張紙，上面寫著...。

if you buy this paper, I will owe this much money plus interest.

如果你買了這張紙，我就會欠你這麼多錢和利息。

What if the interest is 0%?

如果利息是0%呢？

I guess everyone would want to get that kind of a loan.

我想每個人都會想得到這樣的貸款。

The fed usually buys government bonds to help the government raise money, but in march 2020,

美聯儲通常會購買政府債券來幫助政府籌集資金，但在2020年3月。

the fed indirectly started buying corporate bonds.

美聯儲間接開始購買公司債券。

This means companies could suddenly borrow billions of dollars at almost 0 percent, so

這意味著企業可以突然以接近0%的利率借到數十億美元，所以

no matter how bad the crisis is, these companies could borrow money for free to survive.

無論危機有多嚴重，這些公司都可以免費借錢生存。

The problem with that was that the fed even bought junk bonds, which means that it started

問題是美聯儲甚至買了垃圾債券，這意味著它開始了

loaning money to companies that suppose to go bankrupt but survived because the fed gave

貸款給那些本該破產的公司，卻因為聯邦調查局的幫助而活了下來。

them a lot of money.

他們很多錢。

Think about what happens when the fed stops giving them money.

想一想當聯邦政府停止給他們錢的時候會發生什麼。

They will go bankrupt or at least be less profitable, which will drive investors away,

他們會破產，或者至少是盈利能力下降，這將會趕走投資者。

which will push their stock price to fall.

這將推動其股價下跌。

In other words, the stock market is filled with overvalued stocks right now.

換句話說，現在的股市充滿了高估的股票。

But that's not all.

但這還不是全部。

The fed even purchased bonds of the largest companies in the market, such as Apple, Microsoft,

美聯儲甚至購買了市場上最大公司的債券，如蘋果、微軟。

The home depot, and so on.

家庫，等等。

That's one of the main reasons why the stock market rose dramatically.

這也是股市大漲的主要原因之一。

You don't have to be a genius to understand what happens when the fed stopps buying corporate

你不需要是個天才，也能理解當美聯儲停止購買公司股票時，會發生什麼。

bonds or raises interest rates.

債券或提高利率。

Of course, that's causing inflation, but the fed is comfortable with inflation even higher

當然，這也是造成通脹的原因，但美聯儲對通脹率再高也是很放心的。

than 2 percent because if it did not step in to save the economy, the recession could

2%以上，因為如果它不出手挽救經濟，經濟衰退可能會。

have easily turned into a depression.

很容易就變成了蕭條。

It would have taken us much longer to get out of the crisis.

我們要花更長的時間才能走出危機。

Inflation is bad, but what you know, what's more devastating than inflation is deflation.

通貨膨脹是不好的，但你知道嗎，比通貨膨脹更具破壞性的是通貨緊縮。

When prices start going down, that looks like a good thing, right?

當價格開始下跌，這看起來是一件好事，對嗎？

Your money starts becoming more valuable!

你的錢開始變得更有價值!

Why spend your money today when it's going to be more valuable tomorrow?

為什麼今天花錢，明天會更有價值？

And that's the problem.

這就是問題所在。

In that case, everyone will start saving.

在這種情況下，大家就會開始儲蓄。

When no one spends, the economy will further get into a crisis, that's why it was very

當沒有人消費的時候，經濟會進一步陷入危機，這就是為什麼很

important for the FED to step in and flood the market with cheap money because, during

重要的是，FED介入，用廉價的資金充斥市場，因為，在這期間

crises, people are afraid to spend since no one is certain about tomorrow.

危機，人們不敢消費，因為誰也不確定明天的情況。

At the time of writing this script, interest rates are still between 0-0.25 percent, but

在寫這篇稿子的時候，利率還在0-0.25%之間，但。

that's not going to be forever.

這不會是永遠的。

Once everyone gets back to work, and we reach herd immunity, the fed will slowly raise interest

一旦大家重新開始工作，我們達到群體免疫力，美聯儲就會慢慢加息。

rates, and the stock market will probably crumble.

率，股市很可能會崩盤。

I wouldn't be supposed if all the companies that survived just because the fed purchased

我不認為所有的公司都會因為聯邦調查局的收購而存活下來。

their worthless bonds to go bankrupt one after another, and the top 10 companies that make

他們一文不值的債券相繼破產，而十大公司的製造。

almost 1/3 of the sp500 to slow down.

幾乎1/3的sp500要減速。

Its really difficult to predict whats going to happen tomorrow, leave alone a few months

要預測明天會發生什麼真的很難，更何況是幾個月後呢？

from now, but the current administration is focused on another stimulus bill, so the market

從現在開始，但本屆政府的重點是另一個刺激法案，所以市場上的

will probably keep rising at least until the summer.

可能會一直上漲至少到夏天。

If a correction would happen, it will probably be in the second part of the year, or maybe

如果會發生修正的話，可能會在今年下半年，也可能是

not this year, because the market doesn't follow any logic.

今年不行，因為市場不遵循任何邏輯。

Even if I bring up a thousand logical arguments why the market is overvalued, the market might

即使我提出一千個邏輯論證，為什麼市場被高估，市場可能會

take an entirely different direction.

採取完全不同的方向。

But it doesn't hurt to be ready for such a crash.

但做好這樣的崩潰準備也無妨。

Meanwhile, you can get at least 2 free stocks from Webull if you use the link in the description.

同時，如果您使用描述中的鏈接，您可以從Webull獲得至少2只免費股票。

If you have enjoyed this video, you will most definitely enjoy this custom playlist that

如果你喜歡這段視頻，你一定會喜歡這個定製的播放列表。

I have created specifically for you that has our most popular videos on business, investing,

我專門為你製作了有我們最受歡迎的商業、投資視頻。

and the stock market that can potentially change your life.

和股市，有可能改變你的生活。

And now give this video the thumbs up that it deserves and make sure to subscribe if

現在給這個視頻豎起大拇指，它值得，並一定要訂閱，如果它是一個很好的視頻。

you haven't done that yet.

你還沒有做到這一點。

Thanks for watching and until next.

謝謝你的觀看，直到下一次。