He's a licensed captain of the world's largest ships and author and founder of the shipping website captain dot com.

Mr.

Conrad, welcome to D.

W.

From a captain's perspective.

Tell me, how could it come to this right?

These ships have gotten incredibly larger over just the last 10 years.

So in the last 10 years they've gone from about 10,000 container ships to 20,000 container ships.

But as the size has increased the International Maritime Organization, the U.

N arm that does maritime in London, they have not increased the crew size, and they have not put new requirements for technology on the ship.

So you have significantly bigger ships and the same size crew, the same technology and really the same tug boats and equipment and navigating these ships.

And it's not just the length.

I mean, this ship is about 60 m longer than the biggest aircraft carriers in the world, but it's also the weight with a doubling of the number of containers on board.

Uh, these ships weigh 2 to 300% more than the ships of 10 years ago, and again, we're using 10 20 year old technology on board.

Can gusts of wind really blows such a massive ship sideways?

As the owner of the ship says, Absolutely.

As you stack these containers up higher, that's you know, you're a big steel wall where all the wind pushes against these containers at an incredible rate.

The average speed of transit through the canal is eight knots.

This ship was going 13 knots, and we believe it was going faster to try to provide the momentum and inertia to overcome those gusts of wind.

But as you know, driving fast down a narrow passageway on the auto bond during construction.

Uh, the faster you go, the more careful you have to be, especially when that wind comes and can easily, uh, push a ship like this or some of the new cruise ships.

Think of those All those cabins that are stacked stories high.

That's another ship.

That can be easy.

Captain.

Captain, we only have about 30 seconds.

I want to get this last question in which is the race to remove?

The blockage is proving extremely challenging.

How long do you think it will take to dislodge the ever given?

Well, there's a There's a lot of hope that next week in the higher high tide they can get some fuel out, and they can do what they're calling a back twist where they can corkscrew it out backwards after digging and dredging both ends.

If that doesn't work, they have to bring in fuel barges, take out the fuel, and then somewhere in the world, they have to find gigantic cranes on barges tall enough to reach those containers and start removing the weight so they can float it up higher.

But again, as Dr Marco Guiliano said, there is a risk of halt crack.

The ship was not designed, and every time the tide comes in and out, it's like bending a piece of metal.

It's doing micro cracks in the hull and you do that enough time, and that could crack.

And that would take weeks.

At least.

We'll have to stop it there.

Captain John Conrad really appreciate your time, Thank you very much, thank you.

Now taking a detour would lead to major delays for most shippers.

Have a look at this map throughout through the canal is just 7000 kilometers long enough from the Arabian Sea to ports in the Mediterranean.

But the way around the Cape of Good Hope, this is the alternative route a whopping 20,000 kilometers.

Now, assuming that freighters are traveling around 25 knots, or about 45 kilometers an hour, that adds more than a week to their journey, the stock ship is costing the global economy billions as trade is delayed and desperately needed.

Goods cannot be delivered.

They're doing what they can.

But the 400 m long container ship won't budge.

Diggers are at work on the bank alongside a vacuum excavator, which can suck up to 2000 cubic metres of sand and Iowa.

No one really knows how long it'll take to dislodge the ship, estimates on when the vessel could be freed, varying from a few days to a few weeks in the worst case.

But what I am quite surprised and maybe what I would maybe expect to start seeing soon, as if they are not successful in getting the vessel floated back.

Naturally, then the next best option is naturally lighter.

The vessel so, which means they will have to bring small feeder container vessels next to the ship and start offloading part of the containers from the main ship into the smaller ones so that they were basically offloading the weight of the vessel in order to get it refloated.

Naturally, a lengthy salvage process would have wide reaching effects.

Oil prices have already risen due to the many oil tankers caught in the Suez traffic jam supply chains could also be affected because of missing parts.

Yet it's it's an absolutely essential part of our modern life, and this webcam would not have reached me without modern shipping and this computer and pretty much everything on my desk, because shipping still brings us 90% of everything.

And I think in the UK it's 95% of everything, and we are absolutely fundamentally reliant on it.

The massive container ship has been stuck between the Suez Canal's banks since Tuesday, blocking the waterway, which is critical for trade between Europe and Asia.

The incident is now a historic event for the 150 year old canal.

All right for more on this I'm joined now by Klaus Brandt.

He's managing director of the German Maritime Center in Hamburg.

That's a think tank for the maritime industry clause is good to have you on the show.

We talked a little bit about the costs.

Generally speaking, that are building up from a shipping companies perspective, what are the daily cost that they're seeing?

Depends on the size of the whistle.

So maybe for a whistle, which has 3000 containers, um, there will be costs per day roundabout between 25,000 or $30,000 which will occur every day and no revenues against it.

Who eats those costs?

I guess the shipping company is responsible for it.

So, um, it's it's for the shipping company is a great problem because the customers also shipping companies only pay for the transport and not for the problems during the transport of containers.

What about insurance?

Can they be insured for these kind of delays?

I mean, surely their acts of God or I don't know if there's anything for a ship stuck in the Suez Canal.

We have in these times a lot of delays, and therefore it is not normal to have insurance for this.

We have these times a very specific situation because since October last year, since September last year, all the whistles around.

The boards are very good utilized, and there's a lot of, uh, cargo on the way, and therefore there is no capacity really available.

Um, that is coming up in respect to the pandemic and as well.

There are some other problems, which occurs as well in this case.

So it's a big problem in these times when something happens like this and the Suez Canal, so businesses are already paying more.

Just get these containers now.

Prices could go up.

It sounds like if things are even more pinched At what point for a ship does it become more attractive to take the Cape route when you're looking at what's going on now?

Mhm, uh, route around the Cape of Good Hope will take around about 8 to 9 days more time when you compare it with root through the Suez Canal.

Um, we have now to see that more than 200 vessels are waiting northbound and southbound, um, in front of the Suez Canal and only looking for an example.

If it is possible that tomorrow the candle will again open, it will take around about 4 to 5 days, maybe more.

If it is possible to go again in a normal way through the candle.

So we have to consider as well.

Um there, Clear of the congestion of the canal.

Uh, and therefore it might be a good decision to go around the Cape of good Hope.

But then there will occur additional costs because the longer trip will have an impact on the cost of a whistle.

And as well it will occur.

Banker costs because the longer trip will then consume more.

Banker.

Mm.

Alright.

So no good solutions visible at the moment.

Close Brandt, managing director of the German Maritime Center.

Thank you so much.

Thank you.