the past month.

在過去的一個月裡。

That's when you know that you have to make another video on the housing crash because

這時你就知道，你必須再製作一個關於住房崩潰的視頻，因為

apparently the last video we made on the housing market wasn't enough, and people want to know

顯然，我們上次製作的關於住房市場的視頻還不夠，人們想知道

more.

更多

They no longer care about Dogecoin going to the moon or bitcoin finally replacing the

他們不再關心Dogecoin登月或者比特幣最終取代了

dollar.

美元。

They want to know whether the price of their house is going to crash this year.

他們想知道他們的房子的價格今年是否會崩潰。

Imagine what happens to all these people who took mortgage only to rent them and create

想象一下，所有這些接受抵押貸款的人將會發生什麼，他們只是將其出租，並創造了

passive income.

被動收入。

what happens when home prices crash?

房價暴跌時會發生什麼？

Rent prices will definitely fall as well, and that means that rents might not be able

租金價格肯定也會下降，這意味著租金可能無法

to cover the mortgages, which could push many homeowners to sell their houses to be able

以支付抵押貸款，這可能促使許多房主出售他們的房子，以便能夠

to pay their mortgages, and if they haven't acquired a substantial amount of equity in

支付他們的抵押貸款，而且如果他們沒有獲得大量的資產，那麼他們就會被解僱。

the houses, the house might not pay the entire mortgage could drive prices down, which means

的房子，房子可能無法支付整個抵押貸款可能會推動價格下跌，這意味著

there will be an oversupply of houses in the market, which further could push prices to

市場上將出現房屋供過於求的情況，這可能會進一步推動價格上漲。

fall which could result in a nationwide housing crash.

跌，這可能導致全國性的住房崩潰。

Oh my god, dear federal reserve!

哦，我的上帝，親愛的聯邦儲備局！

What on earth have you done!

你到底做了什麼！？

You tried to save the economy, but it seems like you are about to create a much bigger

你試圖拯救經濟，但似乎你要創造一個更大的經濟。

disaster!

災難!

Fortunately, that's not the entire story, and things aren't as bad as they might seem,

幸運的是，這並不是故事的全部，事情並不像看起來那麼糟糕。

so let's try to understand what's happening with the housing market?

是以，讓我們試著瞭解一下住房市場發生了什麼？

Are we on the brink of another housing crash?

我們是否處於另一次住房崩潰的邊緣？

Or we shouldn't be worried?

還是我們不應該擔心？

And whether it's the right time to buy a house?

以及現在是否是買房的正確時機？

But before we do that, here is a little disclaimer.

但在我們這樣做之前，這裡有一個小小的免責聲明。

This is not financial advice.

這不是財務建議。

Everything that is said in this video is for educational and entertainment purposes and

本視頻中所說的一切，都是出於教育和娛樂目的，並且

now, give this video a thumbs and let's get right into it!

現在，為這段視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們馬上進入正題！。

What some people haven't realized that home prices are rising at a faster speed since

一些人還沒有意識到的是，房價正在以更快的速度上漲，因為

great recession, since the 2008 crash!

偉大的經濟衰退，自2008年崩潰以來!

I don't think anyone needs a reminder of how bad that crisis was.

我認為任何人都不需要提醒，那場危機有多糟糕。

It literally took down with it the entire global economy, and the world doesn't need

它實際上把整個全球經濟都拖垮了，而世界不需要它。

another global crisis after a global pandemic that shook the world, to say the least.

至少可以說，這是繼全球大流行病之後的又一次全球危機，震撼了世界。

Many of you have said that it's unfair to compare current circumstances to 2008 because

你們中的許多人都說，將目前的情況與2008年相比是不公平的，因為

we are living in different times, and the factors that are driving the prices today

我們生活在不同的時代，而今天推動價格的因素是

are very different from what caused the 2008 crash, which is true.

是與造成2008年崩潰的原因有很大不同，這是事實。

I can't argue against that!

我無法反駁這一點!

However, in every single crisis, there are always different factors that lead to the

然而，在每一次危機中，總是有不同的因素導致了

same outcome, which is a market crash.

同樣的結果，那就是市場崩潰。

If every crisis followed a plain step-by-step guide, I think we would have long ago figured

如果每一次危機都遵循一個簡單的步驟指南，我想我們早就已經想通了

out, and we wouldn't have another crisis.

我們就不會有另一場危機了。

When home prices are growing faster than incomes, we know that something is wrong, and this

當房價的增長速度超過收入的增長速度時，我們就知道出了問題，而這

is not sustainable.

是不可持續的。

When home prices rise by 15 percent, we know that it's not going to end well.

當房價上漲15%時，我們知道它不會有好結果。

However, many critics say the reason we shouldn't be worried is because this time the rise in

然而，許多評論家說，我們不應該擔心的原因是，這一次上漲的

prices is organic.

價格是有機的。

The strong demand is not driven by predatory lending practices.

強勁的需求並不是由掠奪性貸款行為驅動的。

Banks aren't loaning money to random people just for the sake of maximizing profits.

銀行並不是為了追求利潤最大化而隨意貸款給別人。

The 2008 crash pushed the government to tighten the control over the banks, and now it's much

2008年的崩潰促使政府加強了對銀行的控制，而現在則是多

more difficult to take a mortgage, and lenders are far more careful.

更難獲得抵押貸款，貸款人也更加謹慎。

But take a look at this graph.

但是，看看這個圖吧。

This chart illustrates the monthly supply of houses in the US.

這張圖說明了美國每月的房屋供應情況。

We can clearly see that there was a huge oversupply of houses which triggered the 2008 crash.

我們可以清楚地看到，有大量的房屋供應過剩，引發了2008年的崩潰。

And since April 2020, the number of houses in the market dropped significantly.

而自2020年4月以來，市場上的房屋數量明顯下降。

And that drop wasn't because there was an oversupply earlier, like in 2008 or because

而這種下降並不是因為早些時候出現了供應過剩，比如在2008年，或者是因為

we had a tornado or a fire that destroyed a great number of houses that caused such

我們有一個龍捲風或火災，摧毀了大量的房屋，造成這種

a shortage in the market.

市場上出現了短缺。

Nothing like that happened!

沒有發生過這樣的事情!

We have plenty of houses, but they are not listed in the market, and that's what the

我們有很多房子，但它們沒有在市場上上市，這就是

driving force behind the tremendous increase in prices which is a problem.

這是一個問題，是價格大幅上漲背後的驅動力。

We have a listing shortage, not a housing shortage.

我們有房源短缺的問題，而不是住房短缺的問題。

Let's just assume hypothetically, what's going to happen when all these houses are going

讓我們假設一下，當所有這些房子都要去的時候，會發生什麼？

back to the market?

回到市場？

I am not saying that's gonna happen but let's just try t think about that for a moment.

我不是說那會發生，但讓我們先試著想一想。

As of mid-April, around 2.3 million homeowner were still skipping their mortgage payments,

截至4月中旬，約有230萬房主仍在跳過他們的抵押貸款付款。

and we have no idea how many of these homeowners will be able to keep making their monthly

我們不知道這些房主中有多少人能夠繼續每月支付他們的費用。

payments once that forbearance period is over.

一旦該暫緩期結束，就必須支付款項。

Literally, the fate of the housing market lies on that number.

從字面上看，住房市場的命運就在這個數字上。

If that number isn't high enough, we will definitely experience a significant drop.

如果這個數字不夠高，我們肯定會經歷大幅下降。

How many households will be in trouble when that day comes?

當這一天到來時，有多少家庭會陷入困境？

How many of them will sell instantly or foreclose?

其中有多少人會立即出售或取消抵押品贖回權？

How many desperate landlords will walk away from the rental business and sell as soon

有多少絕望的房東會從租賃業務中走開，並儘快出售

as they can to get tenants out to minimize their losses?

儘可能地讓租戶離開，以減少他們的損失？

The worst thing that could actually happen is a panic.

實際上可能發生的最糟糕的事情是恐慌。

A panic literally makes any crisis a hundred times worse.

恐慌簡直讓任何危機都變得糟糕百倍。

That's the point of having a central bank like the fed to prevent panic.

這就是擁有像美聯儲這樣的中央銀行以防止恐慌的意義所在。

Because it could push many multi-homeowners to list their houses and get out before prices

因為這可能會推動許多多房主在價格之前掛出他們的房子並出手。

drop further.

進一步下降。

Once something like that happens, we are screwed.

一旦發生這樣的事情，我們就完蛋了。

It happened once last year, and we got out of it by printing an unbelievable amount of

去年發生過一次，我們通過印製數量驚人的

money.

錢。

I don't think the economy is ready for another round of printing trillions of dollars.

我認為經濟還沒有準備好接受新一輪的印製萬億美金。

The forbearance rate is twice bigger than what it was in the last crisis.

寬恕率比上一次危機時大一倍。

Imagine all these houses going to market at once?

想象一下，所有這些房子同時進入市場？

that's why Consumer Bureau proposed extending the pause on foreclosures until 2022.

這就是為什麼消費者局提議將暫停取消贖回權的時間延長到2022年。

We are simply trying to postpone that scenario and try to at least minimize the damage somehow

我們只是試圖延後這種情況的發生，並試圖至少以某種方式將損害降到最低。

by then.

到那時。

Of course, i could be wrong and the fed can go for another round of pumping trillions

當然，我可能是錯的，美聯儲可以進行新一輪的萬億抽水。

of dollars because government debt is not like personal debt.

美元，因為政府債務與個人債務不一樣。

When you or I take a debt, we can go bankrupt, the lenders can come after us, after our assets,

當你或我負債時，我們可以破產，貸款人可以來找我們，找我們的資產。

so we either pay the debt or declare bankruptcy.

所以我們要麼償還債務，要麼宣佈破產。

But not in the case of the government because it can't go bankrupt since the government

但在政府的情況下不是這樣，因為它不可能破產，因為政府

is the source of dollars.

是美元的來源。

if you are the one who is issuing that currency and you have to pay back that currency, then

如果你是發行該貨幣的人，你必須償還該貨幣，那麼

why worry.

何必擔心。

Of course, the fed is an independent structure, but it's still part of the government in many

當然，美聯儲是一個獨立的機構，但它在許多方面仍然是政府的一部分。

ways.

方式。

It just functions in a different way.

它只是以一種不同的方式運作。

But when too many dollars chase too few goods, inflation starts rising faster than it should,

但是，當太多的美元追逐太少的商品時，通貨膨脹開始比它應該的速度上升。

which is going to make the currency worthless, which is what has been happening lately!

這將使貨幣變得一文不值，這就是最近發生的事情!

Low mortgage rates pushed too many people to buy houses while the number of houses on

低抵押貸款利率推動了太多的人購買房屋，而房屋的數量則在

the market dropped significantly!

市場大幅下跌!

Which is causing house prices to rise too fast, which is what inflation is.

這就造成了房價上漲過快，這就是通貨膨脹。

It's impossible to predict anything.

不可能預測任何事情。

We just don't have enough data to make any accurate predictions.

我們只是沒有足夠的數據來做出任何準確的預測。

I think the fed is playing with fire here.

我認為美聯儲在這裡是在玩火。

Everything points out to at least a correction in the housing market.

一切都表明，住房市場至少要進行一次修正。

A badly managed correction could lead to a crash, but that's just speculation and nothing

管理不善的修正可能會導致崩潰，但這只是猜測，沒有任何意義。

more.

更多

A correction is when the market falls by 10 to 20 percent, which is what most experts

修正是指市場下跌10%至20%，這也是大多數專家的看法。

are predicting going to happen to the housing market, but it's very likely that some areas

預測住房市場將發生變化，但很有可能一些地區

would witness a much greater drop, maybe even up to 30 percent.

將見證一個更大的下降，甚至可能達到30%。

There are, of course, still some good deals in the market, because even during such circumstances,

當然，市場上仍有一些好的交易，因為即使在這種情況下。

you can still find a good deal, but it's not going to be east.

你仍然可以找到一個好的交易，但它不會是東部。

but I wouldn't personally risk buying now.

但我個人不會冒險現在購買。

Why buy now when you might get it a huge discount later.

為什麼現在買，因為你以後可能會得到巨大的折扣。

If you have enjoyed this video, you will most definitely enjoy this custom playlist that

如果你喜歡這個視頻，你一定會喜歡這個定製的播放列表，它是

I have created specifically for you that has our most popular videos on business, investing,

我專門為你創建了有我們最受歡迎的商業、投資方面的視頻。

and the stock market that can potentially change your life.

和股票市場，有可能改變你的生活。

And now give this video the thumbs up that it deserves, and make sure to subscribe if

現在給這個視頻豎起應有的大拇指，並確保訂閱，如果

you haven't done that yet.

你還沒有做到這一點。

Thanks for watching and until next.

謝謝你的觀看，直到下一次。