planets.

If an advanced civilization had the technology to travel between the stars, at just 0.1%

of the speed of light, It could colonize our galaxy in roughly 100 million years.

Which is not that long given the billions of years the milky way has existed – so

in principle any spacefaring civilization should be able to spread rapidly over huge

sectors of the galaxy.

And yet we see nothing, hear nothing, the universe seems empty.

Devoid of others.

This is the Fermi Paradox, which we have discussed in more detail in other videos.

Confronted with the seemingly empty universe, humanity faces a dilemma.

We desperately want to know if we are alone in the Milky Way.

We want to call out and reveal ourselves to anyone watching but that could be the last

thing we ever do.

Because maybe the universe is not empty.

Maybe it's full of civilizations but they are hiding from each other.

Maybe the civilizations that attracted attention in the past were wiped away by invisible arrows.

This is the Dark Forest solution to the Fermi paradox.

The Way Of Life

The hunter awakes in his hiding place and carefully listens for suspicious noises from

the thick undergrowth before he gets up.

Another night has passed without incident.

The forest is dark and full of fog.

He considers calling out to others to end his loneliness but stops himself at the last

moment.

What if they are like him?

All living things seek to survive, secure resources and multiply.

Their greatest obstacle are other living things that share the same objective.

Competition between species favored the survival of beings with advantageous traits.

Our ancestors were inventive, competitive, expansionist and greedy for resources, which

led to them winning the competition for our planet.

Today, most other animals are so utterly at our mercy that we wipe out about a dozen species

a day, just as an unintentional byproduct of how we like to run things.

But humans are more than individuals.

From us cultures emerge, that also compete with each other.

Competitive and expansionary cultures spread faster and further and merge with, subdue

or destroy others.

If we look at our history it becomes clear: We are dangerous.

Not just to others but also to ourselves.

Our human nature has driven us to take over every corner of our planet and soon we will

look to the stars, both to expand our domain and ensure access to ever more resources.

And then we might stumble upon others trying to do the same thing.

It is likely that the competition of life also takes place on far away planets, so it

is logical to assume that an alien civilization that came to dominate their planet would be

in some regards similar to us.

But if they are similar to us, they, too, may be dangerous.

The Implication

As the hunter sneaks through the dark forest all alone he knows that there might be others

like him.

He can't know their intentions, if they are aggressive or not.

The hunter knows he would kill to ensure his own survival, so he has to assume that they

would too.

And it might be that if he stumbles upon another hunter, the one that shoots first survives.

None of this means that conflict is unavoidable.

So far the progress of the modern world seems to have made us more peaceful, not more violent.

Maybe this is true for other civilizations too, that eventually progress means less conflict,

not more.

Different alien civilizations also should vary from the mild and peaceful to the malevolent

and militaristic.

The existential problem we are facing is that when we meet others between the stars, we

have no way of telling who is peaceful or aggressive and what their true intentions

are.

Similarly, they might not understand or trust our intentions even if we tell them that we

are peaceful.

On top of that, if we did discover another civilization, and they discovered us, the

light years between us would mean years of communication delay.

Both sides would be in a state of uncertainty, wondering if the wisest move is to just attack,

because there's another serious issue: technological explosions and first strike advantage.

We do not know where the limits of technology are, but we do know how much technological

progress matters in war.

A few hundred or thousand years can turn conflict with uncertain results into a one sided massacre.

Caesar's legions would stand no chance against Napoleon's army with their cannons and muskets.

Which would be eradicated by artillery from the first world war.

Which would not stand a chance against today's drones and guided missiles.

So the power level of different civilizations may vary massively and even if not, between

the time it takes us to detect another civilization and us saying “hi” we might already be

hopelessly behind on the tech tree.

Which is bad enough, but the nature of interstellar conflict makes this worse.

If your opponent is light years away, sending an invasion fleet takes so long that by the

time it arrives it might be hopelessly obsolete.

So, war between civilizations might be just about eliminating the other to remove an existential

threat to yourself.

Someone else who might be so scared of you that they attack the first chance they get.

In this environment, the only way to guarantee a win is to strike with such force and speed

that the target has no chance of survival or time to counter-attack or escape to seek

revenge later.

The stakes are the highest possible with no room for error.

If we assume that the majority of civilizations live on planets that leaves them pretty vulnerable

– all you need to do is throw something massive at a planet to make it uninhabitable.

So the ultimate interplanetary annihilation weapon is probably something like a Relativistic

Kill Vehicle – a missile shot at a planet at a significant fraction of the speed of

light.

For example, a missile the size of a person going 95% the speed of light has as much energy

as all nuclear bombs on earth.

If you shot a few dozen at the civilization you wanted to wipe out, success would be fairly

certain – even a single hit would suffice.

This is not that absurd of an idea – a civilization only slightly above us on the Kardashev scale

would have enough energy to send multiple strikes against every planet it suspects of

harboring life.

What makes these weapons so sinister is how much they favor a first strike, since they

would be so fast that it might be impossible to protect yourself effectively against them

once they're launched.

Conflict between civilizations may not be lengthy affairs but rapid winner takes all

situations, where the first one to shoot wins.

This makes any civilization an existential threat to any other.

And if every civilization is an existential threat to every other, there may be only two

kinds of civilizations out there: quiet ones and dead ones.

So what should we do?

So, should we worry?

It is unlikely that anybody has noticed humanity yet.

The radio signals we've transmitted in the last 100 years traveled a relatively tiny

distance and have long decayed into unreadable noise.

At our technological stage, if we don't actively try to get noticed and if nobody

specifically looks at our pretty unremarkable solar system, we'll stay hidden.

But one day we will venture into space in a serious way and need to consider these kinds

of questions again.

We don't know if there are others or if we are going through the forest alone.

But we have no way of knowing for sure.

For the time being, it seems the best we can do is to carefully listen.

And even if we see others step into a clearing and make themselves known, we should not reply

right away but carefully watch them from the undergrowth.

Perhaps we are also thinking about this all wrong by allowing our primitive brain, that

evolved in the context of the gruesome competition of life, to conjure fears of predatory aliens

all around us.

Maybe the fact that we are looking at the universe like this is a sign that we are not

grown up yet as a species.

There could be a friendly, welcoming community of alien civilizations waiting to hear from

us when we are ready.

As for now, the good news is there is actually little we need to do.

We just need to be thoughtful about the signals we send out into the galaxy, we need to watch

the sky and learn more about our galaxy, our forest.

Because whatever the nature of our forest is, full of dangers or friends, or nobody

at all, only careful observation can tell.

So let's do that.

At last the hunter reaches a clearing and finds a comfortable position.

Slowly the sun melts the fog away, lost in thought he admires the vegetation until suddenly

– he is eye to eye with another hunter, frozen in terror just like himself.

His mind is racing, considering all the different options.

The hunter takes a deep breath and makes a decision.

Maybe the only way out of the dark forest is to step into the clearing together.

And with this hopeful picture, we say goodbye to the year 12021 of the Human Era.

It was a wild year to say the least, still much more fun than 12020.

Kurzgesagt had its most successful month ever and published a book.

We tried a lot of new techniques and really got into blender and Cinema4D, hiding more

and more 3D in our videos.

We have so many ideas for next year and big and ambitious plans that we can't wait to

share with you – and all of this was and is possible because of your direct support

– thank you so much.

Kurzgesagt only works because of you.

So in tune with the end of the year we designed a few products that will help you to visualize

your place in the universe.

Our very shiny “The Night Sky'' Poster shows you the little piece of space we can see from

Earth with our own eyes, or travel further out with our Stellar Zoom Collection that

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Or dream with our Space themed notebooks, scenic posters and pins.

We design and produce every single product with great care.

Getting something from our shop is the best way to support kurzgesagt.

We hope you have a wonderful end of the year and that 12022 is more fun and less exciting

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Thank you for watching.