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  • Benjamin Cook: "Global warming is caused by cow farts."

  • It's not by their farts, but it's by belching.

  • Cook: "A few degrees' difference is not a big deal."

  • And the way I always like to think about it too

  • is like your body's temperature.

  • If your temperature is three or four degrees warmer,

  • then you're seriously sick.

  • "It's too late to do anything about it."

  • Unless you're Elon Musk

  • and gonna head off towards Mars,

  • we're all stuck here,

  • so we should try to figure out

  • how we can make it the best planet we can.

  • I'm Deepti Singh.

  • I'm an assistant professor

  • in the School of the Environment

  • at Washington State University.

  • I've been studying climate change for about 11 years,

  • and I study extreme weather events

  • and how human activities are influencing them.

  • My name is Benjamin Cook, and I'm a climate scientist

  • at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

  • I've been working there for about 14 years now.

  • And I study how droughts are changing

  • with global warming and climate change.

  • And today we'll be debunking myths about global warming.

  • Cook: Myths from pop culture.

  • Oh, boy, I'm glad you got this one, Deepti.

  • "The sun is causing global warming."

  • Changes in the amount of energy we get from the sun

  • do affect our climate.

  • But over the last 150 years, we know that

  • because the amount of energy we're getting from the sun

  • has not changed significantly over this period.

  • Satellites have been recording

  • the amount of solar radiation that our planet receives.

  • I think Ben has a graph that shows that.

  • Cook: And what we're looking at here on the yellow

  • is the amount of energy that's coming from the sun,

  • and red is global temperatures.

  • It's pretty clear that the amount of energy

  • we're getting from the sun has been more or less flat

  • for the last several decades,

  • even as temperatures continue to go up and up.

  • Singh: "Scientists don't agree

  • on what causes climate change."

  • 100% of the climate scientists on this Skype call agree.

  • If you review the published literature

  • in reputable journals by reputable scientists,

  • all those papers agree

  • that climate change is caused by human activities.

  • There's really no other explanation that fits the data.

  • We've looked at the sun.

  • We've looked at just natural variations

  • in circulation in the ocean, in the atmosphere.

  • We've looked at volcanoes.

  • We've looked at changes in ecosystems.

  • And at the end of the day, the only thing

  • that can adequately explain the degree of warming

  • that we've seen over the last 150 years

  • is human greenhouse gas emissions,

  • primarily through the burning of fossil fuels.

  • There's a real clear incentive

  • for people to find some other explanation.

  • Nobody can come up with

  • even a plausible alternative hypothesis.

  • "Global warming is caused by cow farts."

  • It's not by their farts, but it's by belching.

  • Agriculture is a pretty substantial contributor

  • to greenhouse gas emissions, close to 25%.

  • It's not the whole 25%, but it's a good chunk.

  • It's important to note, too, that even the cow burps

  • that are producing this methane is not natural.

  • It's all part of a kind of human agricultural system.

  • So blaming it all on cows

  • doesn't take people off the hook.

  • "Plants and animals will adapt."

  • So, we know that in the past,

  • plants and animals have adapted to climate change,

  • but there's a few fundamental different things now

  • that are very likely to make it quite difficult.

  • In addition, it's not just climate change

  • that's threatening plants and animals,

  • it's habitat fragmentation,

  • it's pollution,

  • it's a variety of other environmental stressors.

  • And so once you kind of put climate change

  • on top of pollution, on top of habitat loss,

  • then it becomes much, much more difficult.

  • And just to add to that,

  • I think the extinction rate of species is much higher

  • than the natural extinction rate.

  • And it's partly driven by

  • the processes that Ben just mentioned.

  • Cook: Myths from social media.

  • "Global warming is natural."

  • So, we know in the past that climate can change

  • really dramatically from natural causes.

  • The climate during the time of the dinosaurs

  • is very different from the climate

  • during the time of the last ice age.

  • But the changes that we're seeing right now

  • for the most part are not natural.

  • The warming that we're seeing is very likely

  • the fastest warming we've seen

  • anytime in the last several thousand years.

  • It coincides directly with the industrial revolution

  • and the burning of fossil fuels

  • and widespread deforestation.

  • You can look at almost any natural cause,

  • and none of them are sufficient to explain

  • the warming that we've seen in recent decades.

  • "Carbon dioxide is the problem."

  • So, CO2 isn't the problem.

  • It's the increase in the concentration of CO2

  • in the atmosphere that is resulting

  • in the rapid warming we're seeing

  • over the last century, which is the problem.

  • So, carbon dioxide is one of these gases

  • that we call greenhouse gases,

  • because they're responsible for the greenhouse effect,

  • which basically helps trap energy on Earth

  • and make things much, much warmer

  • than it otherwise would have been.

  • It's not a big stretch then to observe

  • that if we start increasing CO2 concentrations,

  • we're gonna trap more energy and we're gonna warm up.

  • Before the industrial revolution,

  • CO2 levels were close to, like, 280 parts per million.

  • And now we're at close to 418 parts per million.

  • So that's a pretty large change in the concentration.

  • And the fact is that pretty much anytime

  • the world was warmer,

  • CO2 levels in the atmosphere were higher.

  • And anytime the world was cooler,

  • CO2 concentrations were lower.

  • "A few degrees' difference is not a big deal."

  • And the way I always like to think about it too

  • is like your body's temperature.

  • We're all supposed to be about 98.6 degrees Fahrenheit.

  • Even one degree or two degrees of warming

  • is considered a low-grade fever.

  • And if your temperature is three or four degrees warmer,

  • then you're seriously sick.

  • So, just to give you a sense,

  • the Earth has warmed by about one degree

  • over the last century.

  • That one degree is an average temperature around our planet.

  • That means some parts of our planet

  • are warming faster than others.

  • I come from India.

  • We have a lot of people

  • that live below poverty in the country.

  • And most of those people, for example,

  • don't have an air conditioner

  • to deal with extreme heat events.

  • So it depends on who we're talking about

  • when we say it's not a big deal,

  • because there are some people around the planet

  • that have the capacity to adapt or cope

  • with these kind of extreme events

  • and with the warming that we've experienced,

  • and then there are billions of people

  • that do not have the capacity to cope

  • with even small changes.

  • Myths that we, climate scientists, hear the most.

  • "Global warming will destroy the planet by 2030."

  • Just like there's kind of climate deniers

  • who don't know what they're talking about,

  • there's climate doomists

  • who also don't know what they're talking about.

  • This whole idea of the planet

  • being destroyed by 2030 comes out of discussion

  • about, how much time do we have

  • to keep global warming under two degrees?

  • And so it's very likely that we need to

  • kind of get emissions under control by 2030

  • to keep it under two degrees.

  • It doesn't mean that the world is going to explode

  • or we're all going to be consigned

  • to a fiery "Mad Max" kind of hellscape.

  • It just means that it'll be warmer

  • than we maybe wanted it to be.

  • When they say it's gonna destroy the planet,

  • well, the planet's not going to blow up.

  • But it does mean that the way of life

  • and the livelihoods

  • and the things people depend on

  • are going to be affected.

  • There are already people who have been displaced

  • because of sea-level rise,

  • people that are experiencing

  • life-threatening heat conditions.

  • The impacts of climate change

  • are not going to be equally felt.

  • These kind of blanket statements

  • are very, very dismissive.

  • And I think they can take attention

  • away from the people who are likely to be

  • most vulnerable to climate change.

  • It's not really helpful to put a date on it.

  • I think we just need to know that

  • delaying action on climate change

  • is going to just cost more to society.

  • Cook: "Global warming is China's fault."

  • So, to address that myth,

  • I think there's one important fact we need to understand.

  • When CO2 is emitted,

  • it can stay in the atmosphere for hundreds,

  • if not thousands of years.

  • The CO2 concentrations we're seeing today

  • are a consequence of emissions that have happened

  • over a much longer period, over the last century.

  • And most of those emissions are associated

  • with the industrial revolution

  • and development of countries like the US

  • and industrialized nations in Europe.

  • If we look at emissions this year specifically,

  • sure, the emissions from China

  • are close to what the emissions from the US are.

  • But those emissions are being used

  • to produce products and goods

  • that are being used in other parts of the world.

  • So I don't think it's fair to say

  • that China's responsible

  • when we're all benefiting from the products

  • that are produced there.

  • I think even today, it's worth thinking

  • not just about how much is a country emitting,

  • but how much are they emitting per person?

  • And I have another visual aid here.

  • You can pretty clearly see

  • the highest-intensity emitters

  • are places like Australia,

  • the US, Canada, Russia, Saudi Arabia.

  • China isn't even in the top 10.

  • It's also a complicated problem

  • because the well-being of people

  • is tied to their consumption of energy.

  • So as long as we're doing that

  • in a sustainable, cleaner way,

  • I think we all have to benefit from it.

  • "Renewable energy is too expensive to be realistic."

  • Renewable energy is getting cheaper all the time,

  • even faster than we expected.

  • And there's a lot of places

  • where it actually can outcompete some fossil fuel sources.

  • For example, I believe wind and solar

  • is more cost-effective than coal

  • in pretty much the entire United States.

  • The cost of producing solar panels today

  • is a fraction of what it was just a decade ago.

  • I keep going back to India

  • because that's another region I'm very familiar with.

  • There are a lot of villages there

  • that have been provided energy

  • because they're using solar and wind,

  • which would not have been possible

  • if we were still depending upon CO2.

  • Now, there's still challenges.

  • We're not going to kind of

  • be able to switch everything overnight,

  • but it's like any other technology.

  • It's getting cheaper over time.

  • It's getting more efficient.

  • And the more we kind of invest in it,

  • then the faster we'll get to the point

  • that we'll be able to use it for most of our needs.

  • "Extreme weather isn't caused by global warming."

  • So, the right question to ask

  • is not whether an extreme event

  • would have been possible without warming,

  • but it's to ask how the event itself

  • was affected by warming.

  • For example, a tropical storm or a tropical cyclone

  • might result in heavier precipitation

  • because a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture.

  • And so there's more moisture, more fuel in the storm,

  • which results in heavier precipitation

  • and likely more flooding.

  • I think a good analogy

  • is a professional athlete on steroids.

  • Athletes need to have some kind of innate fitness

  • and ability, but if you go on steroids,

  • you're a bit more likely to hit a home run.

  • So CO2 is kind of like

  • the steroids of the climate system,

  • and it's just intensifying everything that's already there.

  • "The temperature record is unreliable."

  • What do you have to say about that, Ben?

  • The record we have of warming for the last 150 years

  • is constructed from basically

  • thousands of thermometer records from around the world.

  • Climate scientists often get accused

  • of modifying the temperature record

  • to make it look like it's warming more than it actually is.

  • At least half a dozen groups around the world

  • who are all independently putting together these records

  • and estimating the global temperature changes

  • that we've seen over the last two centuries,

  • and they're all basically getting the same answer.

  • All this data is publicly available!

  • Anybody can go and get this data

  • and come up with their own calculation.

  • And the fact is that nobody has shown one

  • that is credibly different.

  • "It's too late to do anything about it."

  • It's easy for us to say,

  • "Well, it's too late to do anything about it.

  • Let's throw our hands up and not do anything about it."

  • But there is a lot we can do about it, both individually

  • as well as at the international level.

  • It doesn't have to be a major change,

  • but reducing our consumption of certain meat products

  • that are extremely energy-intensive

  • is one way in which we can affect greenhouse emissions.

  • The decisions we make today,

  • we are going to have to deal with,

  • our children are going to have to live with.

  • I will never say that people should not recycle

  • or reduce their car use or eat less meat.

  • But at the end of the day,

  • the big lever is just going to be government.

  • And 'cause the government can set policies

  • that can incentivize actions.

  • It's also a weird time to say

  • that it's too late to do anything about it,

  • because we're at a point in time

  • when we have so much information.

  • There are people working on technologies

  • to address climate change

  • and to make our environment cleaner and better.

  • So this is not a time for us to put our hands up.

  • It's our time to take action.

  • Climate change itself is not pass-fail.

  • Keeping warming to three degrees

  • is better than four degrees.

  • Keeping warming to two and a half degrees

  • is better than three degrees.

  • Keeping warming to two degrees

  • is better than all of those things.

  • We're all stuck here,

  • so we should try to figure out

  • how we can make it the best planet we can.

  • Climate change is a global problem,

  • and it's going to require a global solution

  • and people to actually kind of work together.

Benjamin Cook: "Global warming is caused by cow farts."

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