ACTUALLY WRITE FOR ANY

BULLRIDING ASSOCIATION.

BUT I THINK YOU SHOULD.

I LOVE YOUR WORK AT THE TRIPLE

CROWN.

BUT I'VE BEEN ABSOLUTELY

STUNNED BY JUST HOW SELF-

DESTRUCTIVE, IN MY OPINION, NOT

YOURS AS THE REPUBLICAN PARTY,

HAS BEEN BY THE PEOPLE WHO PUT

UP TO RUN STATEWIDE RACES AND

SWING STATES.

AND THERE IS NOT A STATE THAT

IS MORE OF A SWING STATE NOW

THAN ARIZONA.

AND MY GOD, THE PEOPLE WHO LOOK

TO BE LINING UP TO WIN ARE ALL

IN THROUGH THE TRUMP CONSPIRACY

THEORIES.

TAKE US THROUGH ALL OF THOSE

RACES.

>> TAKE US TO CRAZYTOWN.

>> WELL, WHAT YOU'RE OUTLINING

THERE IS THE DEMOCRATS' HOPE

HERE, IN THE FACE A CLIMATE

THAT OTHERWISE, IF YOU JUST

LOOK AT JOE BIDEN'S APPROVAL

RATING, STATE OF THE ECONOMY,

POLITICAL, IN THE HISTORY OF

HOW MIDTERM ELECTIONS GO FOR

WHITE HOUSE PARTIES, DEMOCRATS

ARE HOPING, WHAT YOU JUST

OUTLINED WILL BE A MAJOR

MITIGATING FACTOR, THAT WOULD

ALLOW THEM TO DEFY HISTORY, AND

TO KEEP THE SENATE.

LET'S FOCUS ON THE SENATE HERE

NOW.

BECAUSE RIGHT NOW.

IT IS 50-50 IN THE SENATE.

YOU'RE LOOKING AT THE WHAT

LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL

BATTLEGROUND FOR THE SENATE.

IS SHADED.

REPUBLICANS JUST NEED A NET

GAIN OF ONE SEAT AND THEY GET

CONTROL.

AND AGAIN, JUST GIVEN THE

ENVIRONMENT, EVERYTHING THEY

TALK ABOUT, YOU WOULD THINK,

LOOKING AT THIS MAP, THAT THAT

ONE SEAT WOULDN'T BE TOO HARD

TO COME BY.

RIGHT AWAY, YOU TAKE A LOOK

HERE.

WHAT WOULD THE TWO MOST LIKELY

OPTIONS BE FOR THE REPUBLICANS?

WELL, THE TWO DEMOCRATIC-HELD

SEATS THAT WERE THE CLOSEST IN

THE 2020 ELECTION, WERE GEORGIA

AND ARIZONA.

THEY BOTH WENT FOR BIDEN IN

2020.

BUT REMEMBER, ABOUT 11,000

VOTES WAS BIDEN'S MARGIN IN

GEORGIA, INSIDE OF 10,000 VOTES

IN ARIZONA, RAZOR-THIN MARGINS

FOR JOE BIDEN.

MEANING COMING IN THE MIDTERM

LIKE THIS.

NO MARGIN FOR ERROR.

THE POLLING FOR REPUBLICANS HAS

BEEN CONCERNING SO FAR.

WHEN YOU LOOK AT HERSHEL WALKER

IN THAT SENATE RACE.

AGAIN, REPUBLICANS WILL TELL

YOU, HEY, THIS WILL END UP

BEING IN THEIR VIEW, IN WAVE

YEARS, ALL OF THE RACES TEND UP

BREAKING TOWARD THE OPPOSITION

PARTY AT THE END OF THE CYCLE,

HERSCHEL WALKER WILL GET CARRIED BY THE WAVE.

CARRIED BY THE WAVE.

I THINK THAT'S WHAT DEMOCRATS

AREDEPENDING ON.

POLLING SHOWS A CLEARLY

REPUBLICAN SENATE PRIMARY IN

THE SENATE TOMORROW.

POTENTIALLY BLAKE MASTERS IN

ARIZONA COULD PUT BOTH OF THOSE

OTHERWISE-ON-PAPER, CLEAR,

PICKUP OPPORTUNITIES FOR

REPUBLICANS AT RISK.

AND THEN YOU COMPOUND IT.

YOU WERE MENTIONING THE NAME OF

MEHMET OZ IN PENNSYLVANIA.

AGAIN, OZ, THE REPUBLICAN

NOMINEE IN PENNSYLVANIA.

POLLING HAS BEEN CONCERNING FOR

REPUBLICANS WHEN IT COMES TO

OZ.

WHEN IT COMES TO HIS APPROVAL,

FAVORABLE, UNFAVORABLE NUMBERS,

VERY HIGH, UNFAVORABLE NUMBERS.

IF YOU JUST LOOKED AT THAT MAP

AND YOU DIDN'T KNOW WHAT WAS

RUNNING IN THESE STATES, YOU

WOULD SAY, HEY, PENNSYLVANIA IS

NOW A REPUBLICAN-HELD SENATE

SEAT.

PAT TOOMEY IS NOT RUNNING.

MAYBE DEMOCRATS HAVE A CHANCE OF PICKING UP PENNSYLVANIA BUT

OF PICKING UP PENNSYLVANIA BUT

ALL DEMOCRATS HAVE TO DO IS WIN

GEORGIA OR ARIZONA AND THERE'S

THEIR NET WIN OF ONE.

ARIZONA MAY BE AS WELL.

YOU HAVE COLORADO ON THE MAP.

COLORADO IS THE KIND THAT COULD

COME INTO PLAY.

REPUBLICANS HAVE NOMINATED A

MUCH MORE MODERATE CANDIDATE

THERE.

BUT COLORADO IS MUCH MORE

DEMOCRATIC THAN ARIZONA OR

GEORGIA.

SO IT STARTS TO GET MORE

COMPLICATED.

AT LEAST FROM THIS VANTAGE

POINT.

WE'RE JUST INSIDE OF 100 DAYS

FROM ELECTION DAY, WHEN YOU

LOOK AT THE INDIVIDUAL DYNAMICS

IN THE SENATE RACE, YOU CAN

START TO SEE A SCENARIO, WHERE

DEMOCRATS KEEP THE SENATE.

WHEN YOU TAKE THE INDIVIDUAL

DYNAMICS OUT OF IT, AND YOU

JUST THINK ABOUT THE BASIC

INGREDIENTS OF THE MIDTERM

CLIMATE, YOU STILL DO SEE THE

MAKINGS THERE OF REPUBLICAN

WAVE.

SO TWO THINGS ARE IN CONTENTION

WITH EACH OTHER THERE.

>> STEVE, I WOULD BE THE LAST

TO SUGGEST THAT POLLING IN JULY

MAKES ANY DIFFERENCE.

IT DOES GIVE YOU A SNAPSHOT FOR

THAT TIME.

WE'LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN THE

FALL.

I'M THINKING RIGHT NOW,

ESPECIALLY, OF OHIO, WHERE YOU

ACTUALLY HAVE TIM RYAN DOING

EXTREMELY WELL AGAINST JD

VANCE.

I SUSPECT THAT'S A RACE THAT IS

GOING TO END UP, YOU KNOW,

WE'RE GOING TO BE STAYING UP

LATE IN THE NIGHT, MOST LIKELY,

TO SEE WHO WINS THAT RACE.

BUT I JUST WANT TO CIRCLE BACK.

I KNOW IT'S NOT A PENNSYLVANIA

DAY.

BUT YOU JUST OUTLINED SOMETHING

THAT, SOME NUMBERS THAT I JUST

READ AND I FOUND SHOCKING.

I SAID, OKAY, THIS IS GOING TO

BE HARD FOR ANY CANDIDATE TO

GET AROUND.

DR. OZ'S NEGATIVES IN

PENNSYLVANIA ARE OFF THE

CHARTS.

I MEAN, I DON'T KNOW HOW ANY

CANDIDATE GETS AROUND THAT.

WHEN YOU SUGGEST THAT MORE SO

THAN HERSCHEL WALKER, MORE SO

THAN THE FORMER VENTURE

CAPITALIST, WHO LOVES SILICON

VALLEY IN SAN FRANCISCO.

WOULD YOU SUGGEST DR. OZ

PROBABLY HAS THE BIGGEST HILL

TO CLIMB BETWEEN NOW AND

ELECTION DAY OF ALL THE

REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES?

>> I THINK PROBABLY TRUE.

AND AGAIN, WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE

2020 RESULTS IN THESE STATES.

WE SAID ARIZONA, INSIDE OF

10,000 BOATS FOR BIDEN GEORGIA.

ABOUT 11,000-VOTE VICTORY FOR

JOE BIDEN.

WHEN YOU GOT TO PENNSYLVANIA,

BIDEN'S MARGIN WAS STRONGER,

YOU'RE LOOKING AT 2, 2 1/2

POINTS FOR BIDEN IN

PENNSYLVANIA.

SO ALSO IT'S A LITTLE BIT MORE

DEMOCRATIC, LESS REPUBLICAN

THAN THESE OTHER STATES.

SO I THINK THAT MAKES IT A

STEEPER HILL TO CLIMB.

AND YEAH, I THINK WHAT

DEMOCRATS ARE HOPING HERE.

IS OZ'S WEAKNESS.

THE OTHER THING YOU HEAR FROM

DEMOCRATS IS, HAS THE ROAD

DECISION MOTIVATED SOME OF

THEIR DEMOCRATIC-LEANING FEMALE

VOTERS?

IF IT HAS MOTIVATED THEM TO GET

INTERESTED IN THE MIDTERM

ELECTIONS.

WE'LL SEE THAT IN THE

PHILADELPHIA SUBURBS THAT WERE

SO DECISIVE IN 2020 IN THAT

STATE.

IS THAT A DYNAMIC.

BUT YEAH, YOU THINK BACK TO

THAT REPUBLICAN PRIMARY, IT

TOOK THREE WEEKS TO RESOLVE.

MEHMET OZ FINALLY WON THE

THING.

I THINK THE OFFICIAL IT WAS 900

VOTES.

THE CANDIDATE HE BEAT OUT THERE

WAS THE ONE THAT THE REPUBLICAN

ESTABLISHMENT WAS VERY MUCH

HOPING TO WIN.

THEY THOUGHT HE HAD A MUCH

BETTER CHANCE IN THE GENERAL

ELECTION THAN OZ.

BUT OZ DID CARRY THE TRUMP

ENDORSEMENT.

WE TALK ABOUT TRUMP ENDORSEMENT

HAVING A MIXED RECORD.

900 VOTE IN THAT.

I DON'T THINK OZ GETS THAT 900-

VOTE WITHOUT TRUMP.

AND THAT'S WHO REPUBLICANS HAVE

TO RELY ON IN PENNSYLVANIA.

WHAT THEY'RE RELYING ON IS LESS

OZ AND MORE NATIONAL CLIMATE.

THEY'RE HOPING IN OCTOBER,

VOTERS ARE SAYING, THEY DON'T

CARE WHO THE CANDIDATE IS.

THEY WANT TO VOTE AGAINST

BIDEN.

>> I'D BE SAYING IT, EVEN IF I

DIDN'T KNOW HIM, BECAUSE HE

WOULD BE POLLING VERY WELL.

LET'S TALK.

YOU BROUGHT UP ABORTION.

LET'S TALK ABOUT KANSAS.

OBVIOUSLY, A HUGE VOTE THERE,

THAT A LOT OF PEOPLE THERE ARE

GOING TO BE LOOKING AT, TO SEE

HOW MUCH IMPACT ROE BEING

OVERTURNED AFTER ALMOST 50

YEARS HAS.

ESPECIALLY IN THE KANSAS CITY

SUBURBS.

HOW MOTIVATED WILL PEOPLE BE IN

THE SUBURBS TO GO OUT AND VOTE

BECAUSE THE SUPREME COURT

OVERTURNED THE RIGHT TO PRIVACY

IN ROE?

>> YEAH.

SO THIS IS INTERESTING.

WHAT'S ON THE BALLOT IN KANSAS

TOMORROW, IT WOULD ADD LANGUAGE

TO THE STATE CONSTITUTION THAT

SAYS, THE STATE CONSTITUTION

DOES NOT PROTECT THE RIGHT TO

ABORTION.

SO IF THE REFERENDUM PASSES IN

KANSAS TOMORROW, WHAT IT WOULD

OPEN THE DOOR TO HAPPENING IS

THE STATE LEGISLATURE,

CONTROLLED BY REPUBLICANS,

POTENTIALLY MOVING TO AN ACT,

STRICT RESTRICTIONS, MAYBE

OUTRIGHT BAN.

IF GOVERNOR WERE TO GET ELECTED

TO SIGN THOSE LAWS INTO EFFECT.

BUT THAT'S WHAT'S ON THE BALLOT

MORE IN KANSAS.

WE HAVE SEEN BEFORE THIS

SUPREME COURT DECISION THIS

YEAR, BASICALLY THE EXACT SAME

REFERENDUM ON FOUR STATES.

IT WAS ON THE BALLOT IN WEST

VIRGINIA, TENNESSEE, ALABAMA,

AND LOUISIANA, ALL WITHIN THE

LAST EIGHT YEARS.

IT PASSED IN ALL OF THOSE

STATES.

ALTHOUGH I WILL SAY IT WAS

CLOSE WHEN IT WAS ON THE BALLOT

IN WEST VIRGINIA.

IT WAS JUST A COUPLE OF POINTS.

AND THERE HAS BEEN POLLING IN