Thisis a scenethatUkrainianshavegrownfamiliarwith a kamikazedroneflyingovertheirheadsinthecenterofthecapitalKievthatpolicetrytoshootdownwithmachinegunsbeforeitcrashesintobuildings.
ArthurHollandMichel, a seniorfellowattheCarnegieCouncilandthefounderoftheCenterfortheStudyofthedroneiswidelyregardedasoneoftheworld's leadingdroneexperts.
Hegaveushisassessmentofwhatwe'relookingathere.
Well, asthereportsaid, we'relookingat a fairlyrudimentaryweaponssystem, itdoesn't carry a lotofexplosive, butbecauseitfliesverylowtotheground, it's hardtodetectonradar.
A lotofthemdoactuallygetthroughandcanhittargets.
Andthey'vehad a tremendouseffectalreadyinthelastfewweeksthatthey'vebeingused.
Theyhavehadsomesuccessinshootingdown a coupleof 100 ofthesesystems, butthecostofshootingdowntheseverycheapdroneshasbeenvery, veryhighforUkraineandthemillionsofdollars.
AndbecauseRussiacanlaunchtheminlargenumbers.
Notonlyaretheyincurring a costonUkrainianforcesintermsoftheweaponstheyhavetouse, butalsothere's always a probabilitythatsomeofthedronesoftheseswarmsaregoingtobeabletogetthroughandhittheirtargets.
A strategythatactuallyreliesheavilyondroneattacks?
I mean, itmayshowsomesignsof, forexample, uh, the, youknow, thereductioninreservesofotherequivalentweapons, likelikecruisemissiles.
Youknow, I thinkwe'resomewhatlimitedintohowmuchwecanreadintowhatitsaysabouttheotherkindsofweaponsthatRussiaisusing, butitcertainlyshowsthattheyhaveaccessto a capability.
Iftheyareabletocontinueaccessingthesedronesinthesamenumbers, thatthatisgoingtobesignificantunlessUkrainefinds a evenmoreandperhapscheaperwayofactuallydefendingagainstthesesystems, itcouldhave a lastingEffect I think.
I meantheyhave a rangeofupto 2000 km, eveniftheygetpushedfurtherbackbyUkrainiancounteroffensives, theseweaponscancontinuetoreachdeepintoUkrainianterritory.
Right, well, it's a prettyscaryscenariocertainlyfromtheUkrainianperspective, I mean, howmighttheuseofthesedroneschangethedynamicinthis?