Eventhoughwehavealmostdouble-digitinflationItistruethatitisnotasmuchaslastyearsincehehasinvested a lotintooilandgassincetheenergysectorisboomingnow, oilcompaniesaremakingsomeofthehighestprofitsever.
Soifwewanttofindoutthevalueoffuturecashflow, wehavetofinditsNPVandhowmuchthefutureprofitswillworthtoday, there's a prettysimpleformulathatwecallDCFdiscountedcashflow.
Theformulaisonedividedbyoneplusinterestrate.
Tothepoweroftheperiodwhere n.
Istheyearforthesakeofsimplification.
Let's saythattheirinterestrateis 5% whichwillbeourdiscountedrate, let's say a businessmakes $10 millionoverthecourseofthenextfiveyearsor $2 millioneachyear.
Ifweapplyourformula, the $2 millionthatthecompanywillearn.
SowhentheFedraisestherates, whathappenstothatdiscountedrateitriseswhichmakesfuturecashflowlessvaluablethantoday, whichpushesstockpricestoplummetespeciallytechstocksthatareoftenfocusedonmaking a lotofmoneyinthefuture.
AftergainingmarketshareAtthetimeofmewritingthescript, interestratesareaboutto 25% to 2.5% butinflationisstillhigh, it's around 9% andJayPaulisshoutingthathewilldowhateverittakestobringinflationto a sustainablerateof 2-3%.
Butifwe'retalkingabouttechcompanieslikeTeslagoogleandmeta, theirbetisalwaysinthefutureandit's notgoingtobejustanothercrush, 80% ofallmoneywasprintedbetween 2020 and 2021 itdidn't justcreateenormousinflationbutbubblesacrossallindustries, wehave a cryptobubble, realestatebubble, stockmarketbubble, younameit, that's whyBarryfirmlybelievesthatthegreatestcrushisunderwayandthat's whyheandotherbillionairesaresellingasmanystocksastheycan.
Theycan't selleverythingovernightbecausethatwillcreateanoversupplyinthemarketandcrushthemarketanyways, sonoonewantstoseethatontopofthat a crushdoesn't meantheendoftheworld.
Itjustmeansthatyouhavetowait a fewyearsbeforepracticeclimbbackAfterthe 2008 crash.
Withinfiveyears, pricesrosebacktothe 2007 peak.
Sowhoeverpurchased a propertyevenatthepeakofthehousingbubbleprofitedby 2022 timehealseverything.
Butit's onlyresource, butit's onlyresource.
Wecannotproducemoreofit.
TheonlystockthatMichaelbarrydidn't sellis G orgroup, a publiccompanythatinvestsinprivateprisonsandmentalhealthfacilitiesinNorthAmerica, Australia, SouthAfricaandtheUnitedKingdom.
Thatdoesn't inspire a lotofhope.
Likebarryisconfidentonlyaboutonethingpeoplewillkeepgoingtojails, especiallywhenthemotherofallbubblescrushesMichaelbarryismoreof a traderthan a longterminvestor.
Heisshorter.
TeslamademoneyonGamestopandactivelytradestocks, whichisnotanoptionformostpeopletofall A buffetmethodologyiswaymorepracticalforyouraveragefork.