about the world that we live in:

關於我們所處的世界。

I'm finding a lot of panic, people that are very online,

我發現有很多恐慌的人，這些人非常在線。

spending too much time on cable news and social media,

花太多時間在有線電視新聞和社交媒體上。

and maybe talking to their crazy uncle.

也許還可以和他們的瘋子叔叔談談。

This is meant to be a counterbalance,

這是要作為一種平衡。

that you can keep the uncle

你可以保持叔叔

but you can also spend some time

但你也可以花一些時間

thinking about deeper analytic trends

思考更深層次的分析趨勢

of what really is an issue

什麼是真正的問題

that's worth concerning yourself with,

這是值得關注的。

how we might be able to respond to it,

我們如何能夠對它作出反應。

and also all the things that, frankly,

還有所有的事情，坦率地說。

don't merit the screaming headlines.

並不值得大驚小怪的頭條新聞。

What we're talking about in the Top Risks Report

我們在《最高風險報告》中所談論的內容

are those risks out there, globally,

在全球範圍內，這些風險是存在的。

that are going to have the most likely dramatic implications

將會產生最可能的戲劇性影響的問題

in changing the way the world works

在改變世界運作方式方面

in ways that are unanticipated

以意想不到的方式

by all of the major actors in that world:

在這個世界上，所有的主要行為者都是如此。

the government actors, the business actors,

政府行為者、企業行為者。

and the citizens.

和公民。

And they're ranked in terms of impact,

並按影響大小進行了排名。

imminence, and likelihood-

迫切性和可能性--

you put those three things together

你把這三樣東西放在一起

and you get the top risks.

而你得到的是頂級風險。

I'm Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group,

我是伊恩-布雷默，歐亞集團的總裁。

and these are the top risks of 2023.

而這些是2023年的首要風險。

Number 10: Water stress.

第10項：水的壓力。

Around the world, so many people think of water

在世界範圍內，有很多人認為水

as a sudden emergency

突發事件

that needs a quick and immediate policy response.

這需要快速和即時的政策反應。

Increasingly, this is an ongoing,

越來越多地，這是一個持續的問題。

real-time issue for everyone.

對每個人來說都是實時問題。

Some people have too much water;

有些人的水太多了。

massive floods in California.

加州的大規模洪水。

Some people have too little;

有些人的數量太少。

huge challenges with shipping in Europe.

歐洲的航運面臨巨大挑戰。

Farmers having to consistently change the way they go

農民不得不持續改變他們的方式

about their basic productivity on a season-to-season basis

關於他們在每一季的基本生產力

because they do not have adequate resources

因為他們沒有足夠的資源

to be able to plant a normal season.

以便能夠種植一個正常的季節。

This is having the biggest impact on the Middle East

這對中東地區的影響最大

and sub-Saharan Africa, but it's a global issue.

和撒哈拉以南非洲，但這是一個全球問題。

There are global responses,

有全球性的反應。

just like the COP summits on biodiversity

就像締約方大會關於生物多樣性的峰會一樣

and on carbon emissions,

和碳排放問題。

there's a COP summit on water,

有一個關於水的締約方會議首腦會議。

but no one's ever heard of it

但沒有人聽說過它

because it doesn't really do anything,

因為它並沒有真正做什麼。

it hasn't become a priority,

它還沒有成為一個優先事項。

therefore, it's not getting the resources,

是以，它沒有得到資源。

and therefore it's getting worse every single year.

是以，它每年都在惡化。

2023 is really the first year

2023年是真正的第一年

that I think we can talk about global water

我認為我們可以談論全球水問題

as being the kind of ongoing condition of stress

是一種持續的壓力狀況

that we've already come to learn

我們已經認識到

about carbon, about biodiversity.

關於碳，關於生物多樣性。

Number nine: TikTok boom.

第九位。TikTok的繁榮。

It's not actually about TikTok,

這其實不是關於TikTok的。

it's about the generation that has grown up on TikTok.

這是關於在TikTok上成長起來的那一代人。

It's the most diverse generation we've ever seen

這是我們所見過的最多樣化的一代人

in the West.

在西方國家。

It's also, by far, the most activist.

到目前為止，它也是最積極的。

At a young age, believing that they can do much more

在年輕的時候，相信他們可以做得更多

by getting online and by demonstrating,

通過上網和展示。

than they can by voting,

而不是通過投票。

and that has much greater impact,

而這有更大的影響。

both in terms of driving agendas

在推動議程方面都是如此

that are very important to them, like on climate,

這對他們來說非常重要，比如在氣候方面。

like on social equity-

像在社會公平上-

also in terms of changing outcomes

在改變結果方面也是如此

for people in positions of power,

為有權力的人。

and here I'm thinking not just about political leaders

在這裡，我想到的不僅僅是政治領導人

but also about industry leaders, CEOs, bankers,

但也有關於行業領袖、首席執行官、銀行家。

and the like.

和類似的東西。

That is going to create big ripple waves

這將會產生很大的波瀾

across the global economy

整個全球經濟

precisely because it's the most progressive generation,

正是因為它是最進步的一代。

and as a consequence, it will cause more volatility,

是以，它將導致更多的波動。

will lead to more political and economic change-

將導致更多的政治和經濟變化-

much of which will eventually be welcomed-

其中大部分最終將受到歡迎--

but the getting from here to there is, of course,

但從這裡到那裡的過程當然是。

gonna be a challenge.

將是一個挑戰。

Number eight: Divided States of America.

第八位。分裂的美國。

Now, the fact that it's number eight, the United States,

現在，事實上，它是第八位，美國。

and the U.S. is the most powerful country in the world,

而美國是世界上最強大的國家。

kinda means it almost didn't make the list,

這意味著它幾乎沒有上榜。

means that we are not panicking

意味著我們不慌不忙

about the future of the United States, but still,

關於美國的未來，但仍然。

divisions in the United States, politically,

在美國，政治上的分裂。

are massive, they're much greater

是巨大的，他們是更大的

than those of other advanced industrial economies

比其他先進的工業經濟體更多

around the world,

世界各地。

that makes it a lot harder to functionally govern.

這使得它更難在功能上進行治理。

You saw this with 15 votes

你看到這個有15票

to get Kevin McCarthy barely over the line

以使凱文-麥卡錫勉強過關

as Speaker of the House,

作為眾議院議長。

and he's gonna have an impossible time

他將會有一個不可能的時間

actually holding that party together.

實際上是將該黨組織在一起。

You also see this

你也看到了這個

with inability to even address fundamental issues

甚至無法解決基本問題

like improving education,

如改善教育。

or dealing with immigration in the United States,

或處理美國的移民問題。

even though we all know what the basic answers are.

儘管我們都知道基本答案是什麼。

But the big positive in this risk is the fact

但這一風險中最大的積極因素是

that all of the people that were running

所有正在運行的人

for key positions of governor and Secretary of State

競選州長和國務卿的關鍵職位

to oversee upcoming elections,

以監督即將到來的選舉。

those that were claiming

聲稱的那些人

that this election was gonna be stolen

這場選舉會被偷走

and they had to stop the steal, they all lost.

而他們不得不停止偷竊，他們都輸了。

So as we look forward to 2024,

是以，當我們展望2024年的時候。

the likelihood of a constitutional crisis

發生憲法危機的可能性

in the United States is virtually zero.

在美國幾乎為零。

Number seven is arrested global development.

第七個問題是全球發展受阻。

For 50 years, the world has seen

50年來，世界已經看到

incredible human improvement in education,

令人難以置信的人類在教育方面的改進。

in health and lifespan,

在健康和壽命方面。

in economic growth across the world-

在全世界的經濟增長中-

it wasn't just a tiny group of rich people

這不僅僅是一小撮富人的事

that were taking advantage, it was the emergence

的優勢，是出現了

of a global middle class.

全球中產階級的發展。

We are now seeing that turn around:

我們現在正看到這種情況的轉變。

we're seeing more people driven into poverty,

我們看到更多的人陷入貧困。

we're seeing more children leaving school, and particularly,

我們看到更多的孩子離開學校，特別是。

a burden on women being driven into sexual trafficking,

對被驅使進行性販運的婦女來說是一種負擔。

being driven into the informal economy,

被趕入非正規經濟。

not being able to experience the basic human rights

無法體驗到基本的人權

that they've worked so hard to achieve

他們如此努力工作所取得的成果

over the last 50 years.

在過去的50年裡。

The United Nations estimates

聯合國估計

that five years of human development on the planet

這五年來人類在地球上的發展

has been lost in the three years

在這三年中已經失去了

since the pandemic has begun, and in 2023,

自該大流行病開始以來，以及在2023年。

those losses will only accelerate.

這些損失只會加速。

There are lots of structural reasons for that,

這有很多結構上的原因。

some of it is, of course, the dangers of the pandemic,

當然，其中一些是大流行病的危險。

some of it is the challenges that came

其中一些是來自的挑戰

from the disruptions of the Russian invasion of Ukraine,

從俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭的干擾中。

all the supply chain challenges,

所有的供應鏈挑戰。

and the inflation that came on the back of it,

以及在此基礎上出現的通貨膨脹。

some of it is climate change.

其中一些是氣候變化。

You put all of those things together

你把所有這些東西放在一起

and global development is changing trajectory.

和全球發展正在改變軌跡。

Number six: Energy crunch.

第六：能源緊縮。

The Russian invasion of Ukraine means

俄羅斯對烏克蘭的入侵意味著

that the Europeans are no longer getting their gas

歐洲人不再得到他們的天然氣了。

and much of their oil from Russia,

而他們的大部分石油來自俄羅斯。

one of the largest energy producers in the world.

是世界上最大的能源生產國之一。

But the Europeans need their energy,

但歐洲人需要他們的能量。

what are they doing?

他們在做什麼？

They're spending as much as humanly possible

他們正在儘可能多地花費人力物力

to get the energy from anywhere else they can,

從其他任何地方獲得能量，他們可以。

that drives prices up,

這促使價格上漲。

but it also means that developing countries

但這也意味著，開發中國家

that don't have access to the same deep pockets

沒有機會獲得同樣深的口袋的人

that the Europeans do are really taking it in the teeth.

歐洲人所做的是真正地把它放在牙齒上。

So over the course of the year,

是以，在這一年的時間裡。

the Europeans are going to experience

歐洲人將會經歷

another challenging winter,

又一個具有挑戰性的冬天。

in many ways more challenging in 2023 than in 2022,

在許多方面，2023年比2022年更具挑戰性。

because they don't have the benefits

因為他們沒有好處

of all of that Russian energy that was coming in

所有進入的俄羅斯能源

at the beginning of the year like they did last year,

像去年一樣，在年初的時候。

but also it means that the knock-on challenges

但這也意味著，連鎖反應的挑戰

for the poorer countries that are not commodity producers

對非商品生產國的較貧窮國家而言

around the world, gonna feel very great stress this year.

世界各地的人，今年會感到非常大的壓力。

Number five: Iran in a corner.

五號。伊朗在一個角落裡。

Demonstrations across Iran erupted months ago

幾個月前，伊朗各地爆發了示威活動

with the killing of Mahsa Amini, a young woman

謀殺了年輕女子馬赫薩-阿米尼（Mahsa Amini）。

who was not correctly wearing her head scarf,

她沒有正確佩戴頭巾。

killed by the "morality police," so-called, in Iran,

在伊朗被所謂的 "道德警察 "殺害。

and it touched off the greatest demonstrations

並引發了最大的示威活動

they've had on the ground since the 1979 revolution-

自1979年革命以來，他們在當地擁有的...

and the Iranian government is only repressing in response,

而伊朗政府只是進行鎮壓作為迴應。

there's no willingness to have a dialogue or compromise.

沒有進行對話或妥協的意願。

No, in fact, we see, increasingly,

不，事實上，我們看到，越來越多。

the Iranian government is willing to execute their citizens

伊朗政府願意處決他們的公民

with no reason.

毫無理由。

At the same time as that's going on,

在這一過程中，在同一時間。

the JCPOA, the Iranian Nuclear Deal

JCPOA，即伊朗核協議

the Americans stepped away from unilaterally,

美國人單方面脫離了。

well, the Iranians are stepping away from it too,

好了，伊朗人也在一步步遠離它。

and they've now achieved 'nuclear breakout,'

而他們現在已經實現了'核突圍'。

their willingness to engage

他們願意參與

in nuclear development enrichment that would allow them

在核開發濃縮方面，將允許他們

to build nuclear weapons when the inspectors aren't there.

當檢查員不在時，他們會建造核武器。

And finally, the Iranians are Russia's best friend

最後，伊朗人是俄羅斯的好朋友

on the global stage.

在全球舞臺上。

Chinese aren't providing them

中國人並沒有提供這些東西

with military support to invade Ukraine, but Iran is,

與軍事支持入侵烏克蘭，但伊朗是。

that's angering the Americans, angering the Europeans.

這讓美國人感到憤怒，讓歐洲人感到憤怒。

The likelihood we see regime change in Iran

我們看到伊朗政權變化的可能性

is relatively low, and even if it were to occur,

是相對較低的，而且即使它發生了。

it would probably be towards a military dictatorship,

它可能會走向軍事獨裁。

not to a democracy;

而不是對民主國家。

it's not gonna help in resolving any of these issues.

這對解決這些問題沒有任何幫助。

But the likelihood that we see military confrontation

但我們看到軍事對抗的可能性是

between Iran and a new Netanyahu-led right-wing coalition

伊朗與內塔尼亞胡上司的新右翼聯盟之間的關係

in Israel,

在以色列。

Saudi Arabia, and even the United States,

沙特阿拉伯，甚至是美國。

that's higher than at any point

這比任何時候都高

since the Iranian Nuclear Deal was signed.

自伊朗核協議簽署以來。

Number four: Inflation shockwaves.

第四個。通貨膨脹的衝擊波。

Should surprise no one that,

沒有人應該感到驚訝。

after a staggering contraction of the global economy

在全球經濟出現驚人的收縮之後

that came with COVID,

這是與COVID一起出現的。

the global economy basically shut down,

全球經濟基本關閉。

and an enormous fiscal outlay

和巨大的財政支出

from every major economy in the world to ensure

來自世界上每個主要經濟體的專家，以確保

that all the people that were suffering,

所有正在受苦的人。

had their businesses closed,

他們的企業被關閉。

and lost their jobs, would still be able to get through

和失去工作的人，仍然能夠通過

while the economy contracted,

而經濟收縮。

and then the economies open up, but not at the same time,

然後經濟開放，但不是在同一時間。

and the shipments and ships, they're not in the right place.

和運輸和船舶，他們不在正確的地方。

So what happens is a consequence of all of that:

是以，所發生的事情是所有這些的後果。

While people are ready to spend money,

當人們準備花錢的時候。

supply chains are massively disrupted,

供應鏈被大規模地破壞了。

costs go way up, and costs go way up around the world,

成本大大增加，世界各地的成本都大大增加。

doesn't matter if you were Biden,

如果你是拜登，這並不重要。

or you were the Europeans,

或者你是歐洲人。

or you were the Chinese, the Brits, the Japanese,

或者你是中國人、英國人、日本人。

everyone experiencing generational levels of inflation.

每個人都在經歷一代人的通貨膨脹水準。

Overall, global growth from 6% in 2021 to 3% in 2022,

總體而言，全球增長從2021年的6%降至2022年的3%。

expecting less than 2% in 2023- that's a global recession.

預計2023年將低於2%，這就是全球經濟衰退。

The implications of that around the world

這對世界的影響

will be very serious,

將是非常嚴重的。

especially given levels of present inflation.

特別是考慮到目前的通貨膨脹水準。

The wealthy countries have the money

富裕的國家有資金

to be able to continue to ensure that their working classes,

以便能夠繼續確保他們的工人階級。

their middle classes, are taken care of,

他們的中產階級，被照顧得很好。

but the real issue is for developing countries

但真正的問題是對開發中國家來說

who don't have the fiscal space

沒有財政空間的人

to be able to make these payments

以便能夠支付這些款項

to the rest of populations;

對其他人口的影響。

they'll put policies in place

他們會把政策落實到位

that will only make

這隻會使

the much-more indebted dollar-denominated debt,

負債更多的美元計價債務。

in many cases, with higher interest rates

在許多情況下會有更高的利率

that they will not be able to service, leading to collapse.

他們將無法提供服務，導致崩潰。

The social instability, the political instability

社會不穩定，政治不穩定

that comes from these economic challenges

這些經濟挑戰所帶來的

on much of the developing world, is at higher levels in 2023

對發展中世界的大部分地區，在2023年處於較高的水準

than we have seen in decades.

比我們幾十年來看到的還要多。