Name: 探究藍領薪酬增長幫助抵禦經濟衰退的神奇效應 (How Blue-Collar Pay Gains Help Fend Off a Recession | WSJ)
Uploaded: 2023-09-08T21:01:10.000Z
Duration: 5 min 53 s

This is Betty, a blue-collar worker who tends the counter at a fast food restaurant.

這是貝蒂，一個在快餐店打理櫃檯的藍領工人，這是威爾瑪。

And this is Wilma, she's a white-collar worker who writes computer code.

Both make average salaries for those two groups.

兩者都是 2010 年至 2012 年這兩組人的平均工資。

From 2010 to 2012, the salary for Wilma's position would have grown more than Betty's.

威爾瑪職位的工資增長幅度將超過貝蒂。

But from 2020 to 2022, it was Betty that would get the bigger bump.

但從 2020 年到 2022 年，是貝蒂受到了更大的挫折。

Wage gains for some blue-collar workers have started to outpace gains for white-collar workers over the last three years,

在過去三年裡，一些藍領工人的工資增長已經開始超過白領工人的增長，

This is a pretty remarkable moment in history.

這是歷史上非常了不起的時刻。

Here's why wages have been growing faster for low income workers, and why those gains have helped stave off a recession.

以下是低收入工人工資增長較快的原因，以及這些增長為何有助於首先避免經濟衰退。

First, it's important to understand who exactly qualifies as blue and white collar.

瞭解誰符合藍領和白領的條件非常重要。

Blue collar has become a more all-encompassing term for lots of different wage workers, often at the lower end of the income spectrum, but not exclusively.

藍領 "已成為一個更加包羅萬象的術語，指的是許多不同的工薪階層，通常是收入較低的階層，但也不完全是。

And white collar tends to be more salaried professionals who are typically working in an office-like settings.

而白領更多的是領取薪水的專業人士，他們通常在辦公室工作，類似於非管理層。

Non-management blue-collar jobs tended to include people that work in restaurants, hotels, factories, retail stores, and construction.

藍領工作往往包括在餐館、酒店、工廠、零售店和建築業工作的人，白領工作包括一些（但不是全部）辦公室工作人員，如金融、科技和法律界人士。

The pay gap between some industries that fall in these groups has steadily grown.

屬於這些類別的一些行業之間的薪酬差距穩步擴大。

You can especially see that divide between Betty and Wilma.

你尤其可以看到貝蒂和威爾瑪之間的分歧。

Part of the reason that gap has grown in the past.

There has just been so much demand for skills like computer engineering, like software engineering and not as much supply.

部分原因是對計算機工程、軟件工程等技能的需求量太大，而供應量卻不多。

And there has been far more supply of workers prepared to do low-wage work.

準備從事低工資工作的工人數量也大大增加。

The pandemic also increased the need for white collar jobs which could easily be worked from home.

大流行病還增加了對在家就能輕鬆工作的白領職位的需求。

But when the economy began recovering, a different demand arose.

但當經濟開始復甦時，出現了不同的需求。

What hurt us the most is, you know, it's hard to find people to work.

對我們傷害最大的是，你知道，很難找到人工作。

People returned to activities far faster than companies could hire,

人們重返工作崗位的速度遠遠超過了公司的招聘速度，

creating competition for many traditionally low-wage positions and many blue collar workers didn't return at all.

這為許多傳統的低工資職位帶來了競爭，許多藍領工人根本沒有重返工作崗位。

We had a lot of retirees during the pandemic who have not returned to the labor market and immigration was depressed as well.

在大流行病期間，我們有很多退休人員沒有重返勞動力市場，移民也不景氣。

So we had fewer people entering the country to fill especially lower income jobs.

是以，進入這個國家的人越來越少，尤其是低收入工作崗位。

Many workers were also quitting their current jobs, which could be a sign of more worker leverage.

許多工人還辭去了目前的工作，這可能是工人槓桿作用增強的一個跡象。

When workers are quitting in large numbers, it's because they are easily able to exchange their jobs for better jobs.

當工人大量辭職時，是因為他們很容易換到更好的工作。

And when workers are being laid off in large numbers, it's because employers hold the upper hand and are easily able to exchange workers for better workers.

而當工人被大量解僱時，是因為僱主佔據了上風，能夠輕易地用工人交換更好的工人。

Workers who did leave for higher paying jobs also saw higher wage gains than people who stayed.

那些離開尋找薪資更高工作的工人也看到了比留下的人更高的工資增長。

When employers are short-staffed, the immediate problem at hand, the fastest way to solve that problem is to hire someone.

在僱主缺人的情況下，眼前的問題，最快的解決方法就是僱人。

They're often prepared to throw huge amounts of money at hiring a new candidate, signing bonuses, you need a new benefit in order to come on, okay, sure.

他們通常願意花大筆錢來聘請新的候選人，提供簽約獎金，你需要一個新的福利才能工作，好的，當然可以。

So as demand went up and supply went down for blue-collar workers, the opposite happened for white-collar workers which kept their wage gains at a lower level than they typically would be.

當藍領工人的需求增加、供給減少時，白領工人的情況恰恰相反，這使得他們的工資漲幅低於通常水準。

To the extent we have seen shakiness in the labor market, it has been in some of these white collar professions, like the tech industry.

在一定程度上，我們看到了勞動力市場的動盪。一些白領職業，如科技行業，也是如此。

While some economists consider the slowdown in white-collar jobs more of a return to pre-pandemic levels,

一些經濟學家認為，白領工作的放緩更像是恢復到大流行前的水準。

the boost in blue-collar pay is keeping spending elevated, even during inflation.

即使在通脹期間，藍領工資的增長也使支出保持高位，時薪兩年來首次超過通脹。

Hourly earnings surpassed inflation for the first time in two years in July, largely driven by gains for low-wage workers.

7 月份，這主要是由於低工資工人的收入增加。

We have actually seen some parts of the economy receive real wage increases that have expanded their purchasing power and allowed them to buy more,

實際上，我們已經看到經濟中的某些部分獲得了實際工資增長，這擴大了他們的購買力，使他們能夠購買更多的東西，

to move into better homes, to invest in better schooling for their kids, and to improve their life conditions.

搬進更好的房子，為他們的孩子投資更好的學校教育，並改善他們的生活條件。

Some economists say that this increased spending power for lower income workers and the tight labor market have been major factors in avoiding a recession.

一些經濟學家表示，低收入工人消費能力的提高和勞動力市場的緊縮是避免經濟衰退的主要因素。

So typically in recessions, lower-income workers, by virtue of the jobs that they work in or the tenure that they have at those jobs,

通常在經濟衰退時，低收入工人由於他們所從事的工作或他們在這些工作崗位上的任職期限，

tend to be some of the first to be let go, or to not be hired in the first place.

往往是最先被解僱或最先不被僱用的人。

If those workers are making more money and they're remaining employed,

如果這些工人能賺到更多的錢，他們還能繼續就業，

they are propelling economic growth forward and they are keeping other people in their jobs and they are preventing a recession from happening,

他們就能推動經濟增長，讓其他人繼續工作，防止經濟衰退的發生，

which creates a virtuous circle for everyone involved.

這就為每個人創造了一個良性循環。

While these earning boosts have helped close the gap between blue and white-collar workers somewhat,

雖然這些收入的增長有助於縮小藍領工人和白領工人之間的差距，

the amount that Betty, our food worker, and Wilma, our computer programmer, make today is still very different.

但食品工人貝蒂和電腦程序員威爾瑪如今的收入仍然大相徑庭。

And as Federal Reserve officials continue to tackle inflation, they're taking an aim at cooling the job market.

在美聯儲官員繼續應對通脹的同時，他們也在努力為就業市場降溫。

What we're talking about is having wage increases still at a very strong level.

我們所說的是工資增長仍然處於非常強勁的水準。

But at a level that's consistent with 2% inflation over time.

但是，在與 2% 的長期通脹率保持一致的水準上，

Wages have started to cool and the trend has reversed in recent months.

工資已經開始降溫，近幾個月的趨勢已經逆轉。

But some economists are optimistic that the gains for low income workers will continue.

但一些經濟學家樂觀地認為，低收入工人的收益將持續下去。

I don't think we're going to see these wage gains erode because the labor market is still tight in those low wage industries.

我不認為我們會看到這些工資漲幅受到侵蝕，因為在這些低工資行業，勞動力市場仍然緊張。