is just around the corner.

- This is potentially a pivotal moment

in the Republican primary.

- [Narrator] For Nikki Haley,

New Hampshire could be her best and last chance

to persuade voters that she's a better alternative

to Donald Trump.

Here's why.

The first primary of the 2024 election season

is now a one-on-one battle

after Florida governor Ron DeSantis

suspended his presidential bid two days before the election

and endorsed former president Donald Trump.

- I can't ask our supporters to volunteer their time

and donate their resources

if we don't have a clear path to victory.

- [Narrator] The New Hampshire primary comes off the heels

of the Republican caucuses in Iowa,

where Trump won by a record breaking margin,

all but cementing his position as the front runner

for the party's nomination.

- We wanna thank the great people of Iowa.

Thank you. We love you all. (crowd cheering)

- [Narrator] But unlike Iowa,

New Hampshire has a more moderate electorate,

and large numbers of independents

are allowed to vote in the state's GOP primary.

- New Hampshire's much more independent-minded,

much more secular.

This has always been a state

where the electorate was much more friendly

to the appeal of someone like Nikki Haley,

who combines a sort of conservative stance

on taxes and spending,

with conservative positions on foreign policy

and a pitch that's about electability.

There's a substantial block

of Democratic-leaning independents,

who might like to take the nomination away

from Donald Trump.

There's a substantial block of moderate conservatives

or conservative-leaning independents.

All of these moderate voters are a potential asset

for a candidate like Nikki Haley.

- [Narrator] With DeSantis out of the race,

Haley has the opportunity to present herself

as the better and now only alternative to Trump.

- It has been the conventional wisdom

that the only way Trump could be beaten

is if he were one-on-one with a single alternative,

giving voters that binary choice,

either it's Trump or it's not.

- Do we want more of the same

or do you want something different?

And more of the same isn't just Joe Biden,

more of the same is also Donald Trump.

- [Narrator] Haley believes she already has momentum

going into the New Hampshire primary.

- She has the endorsement of the very popular

Republican governor of New Hampshire, Chris Sununu,

who's been very outspoken against Trump

and what he represents.

- [Narrator] Haley is also likely to scoop up

some supporters of former New Jersey governor,

Chris Christie, an avid Trump critic

who dropped out of the race

just days before the Iowa caucuses.

However, Trump remains dominant in polls in New Hampshire

and the states to follow for future primaries.

With DeSantis endorsing Trump after suspending his campaign,

the support he was drawing in New Hampshire

will likely go to Trump, widening his lead.

Another decisive victory could make the former president

nearly impossible to stop.

- From the perspective of the Trump campaign,

this is already over.

You have a lot of Trump's allies and campaign officials

saying, "It's time to unite the Republican Party."

Haley has tried to toe this very delicate line of,

on the one hand, articulating what she believes

are valid criticisms of Trump,

while not angering the voters

who still think that Trump was a good president

and like him in a lot of ways.

And so for her, it's really New Hampshire that's do or die.

She needs to either win

or show that she can come close to Donald Trump

to give her a reason to keep going forward.

- [Narrator] It's still early

in the 2024 presidential campaign season,

with many more state primaries and caucuses to go

ahead of November's election.

But New Hampshire will likely set the tone

for another major upcoming task,

the South Carolina primary.

- Trump looks very strong throughout the South,

including in South Carolina.

We've seen him get huge reception

when he's gone down there to campaign.

So although it is Nikki Haley's home state,

where she was a popular governor,

it's viewed as an uphill battle

for all the non-Trump candidates.

If Haley is able to come close

or defeat Trump in New Hampshire,

she really looks like a much more of a force

in this campaign,

and it starts to look like a real contest.

Now, she still has an uphill battle in South Carolina,

but at least it looks like an actual battle.

(gentle music)