Name: 牽一髮而動全世界經濟！面對中國虎視眈眈爭奪臺灣 AI 晶片，美國該如何防範？ (The Race to Secure Taiwan’s AI Chips as Fears of a Chinese Invasion Loom | WSJ)
Uploaded: 2024-05-01T21:01:30.000Z
Duration: 7 min 16 s

程度副詞

It takes thousands of them to train just one AI model, and each chip is worth more than $25,000.

光是訓練一個 AI 模型就需要數千個模型，每個晶片價值超過 25,000 美元。

Almost all of the world's supply comes from one small island, Taiwan.

世界上幾乎所有的供應都來自來自一個小島——臺灣。

And the vast majority are made by only one chip maker, TSMC.

而絕大多數都是由台積電，一家晶片製造商生產的。

It's arguably one of the most important companies in the world, so any disruption to its operations could affect the global economy.

它可以說是世界上最重要的公司之一，因此其營運的任何中斷都可能影響全球經濟。

A recent earthquake briefly stopped production, prompting a number of questions about what a prolonged shutdown could do to the world's supply of chips.

最近的一場地震導致生產短暫停止，引發了一系列關於長期停產會對全球晶片供應產生什麼影響的問題。

Its geography poses a more complicated problem than earthquakes, though.

不過，它的地理位置帶來了比地震更複雜的問題。

TSMC has 15 factories in Taiwan, mostly clustered along its West Coast, less than a hundred miles from China, and that makes the U.S. very uncomfortable.

台積電在台灣有15家工廠，大部分集中在台灣西岸，距離中國不到一百英里，讓美國非常不舒服。

China has been clear about its intention to eventually take control of Taiwan, which could have devastating consequences for the current AI revolution.

中國已經明確表示其最終控制台灣的意圖，這可能對當前的 AI 革命產生毀滅性後果。

Here's what the U.S. is doing to secure the chip supply chain before it's too late.

以下是美國為確保晶片供應鏈安全所採取的措施，以免為時已晚。

Today, we mark one of the largest investments ever in our nation's history in semiconductor manufacturing.

今天，我們迎來了我國半導體製造史上最大的投資之一。

So how did all of that power wind up so concentrated in the first place?

那麼，所有這些力量最初是如何集中在一起的呢？

Taiwan saw the potential in chip making early in the game, investing billions back in the 1980s.

臺灣很早就看到了晶片製造的潛力，早在 1980 年代就投資數十億美元。

TSMC pioneered the business of producing the chips, instead of designing them.

台積電是生產晶片業務的先驅，而不是設計它們。

That focus on manufacturing gave it a scale nobody could match.

對製造業的專注使其規模達到了無人能比的水平。

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company produces around 90% of the world's most advanced chips.

台積電生產全球約 90% 最先進的晶片。

And that level of concentration in Taiwan in the hands of a single company is vastly greater than you see in the oil industry with Saudi Arabia or with OPEC.

這種程度的集中在台灣一家公司手中，遠遠超過了石油業在沙烏地阿拉伯或石油輸出國組織手中的集中程度。

Some defense analysts believe the company's remarkable value serves as a deterrent to a Chinese invasion, with TSMC often referred to as Taiwan's so-called "Silicon Shield."

一些國防分析家認為，該公司非凡的價值可以對中國的入侵起到威懾作用，因為台積電通常被稱為台灣所謂的「矽盾」。

If you take a military force or invasion, you will render TSMC factory non-operable.

如果你採取軍事力量或入侵，將看到台積電工廠無法運作。

In the past few years, China has grown more aggressive in its stance on Taiwan.

在過去的幾年裡，中國在臺灣問題上的立場越來越咄咄逼人。

It has stepped up military drills around the island, driving up fears that an invasion could come soon.

它加強了在該島周圍的軍事演習Ｍ這加劇了人們對入侵可能很快到來的恐懼。

Last year, Warren Buffett sold billions of dollars worth of TSMC shares within a few months of buying the stock.

去年，華倫·巴菲特在購買台積電股票後的幾個月內就出售了價值數十億美元的股票。

He later said geopolitics was one of the reasons for the sell-off.

他後來表示，地緣政治是拋售的原因之一。

Even with the increasing concerns, the world has very few options when it comes to high-end chip makers.

即使人們的擔憂與日俱增，世界上沒有多少高端晶片製造商的選擇 。

TSMC is extraordinarily difficult to replicate.

A single new chip making facility can cost $20 billion.

一個新的晶片製造設施就可能耗資 200 億美元。

They're the most expensive factories in human history.

它們是人類歷史上最昂貴的工廠。

And so simply finding the funds to build a new chip plant is itself an extraordinary challenge.

因此，僅僅尋找資金來建造新的晶片工廠本身就是一個巨大的挑戰。

The company is crucial to global supply chains, so the impact of an invasion of Taiwan could be disastrous.

該公司對全球供應鏈至關重要，所以入侵臺灣的影響可能是災難性的。

TSMC, the manufacturer of semiconductor chips on Taiwan.

台積電，臺灣半導體晶片製造商。

If that is blocked, it will have an enormous global financial impact that I think runs somewhere between 600 billion to over a trillion on an annual basis for the first several years.

如果這一點被阻止，它將對全球金融產生巨大的影響，我認為在最初的幾年裡，每年的影響將達到 6,000 億到超過 1 兆美元。

There are suggestions that the U.S. could take drastic actions to prevent China from taking control of TSMC.

有人建議美國可能採取嚴厲行動阻止中國控制台積電。

Robert O'Brien, the principal National Security Advisor to former President Trump, has implied that the U.S. would destroy the factories.

前總統川普的首席國家安全顧問羅伯特·奧布萊恩暗示美國將摧毀這些工廠。

The United States and its allies are never gonna let those factories fall into Chinese hands even if there was a successful invasion of Taiwan.

即使成功入侵台灣，美國及其盟國也永遠不會讓這些工廠落入中國手中。

I mean, you're looking at something similar to what happened with the French fleet when Vichy France surrendered to Germany, the Brits didn't allow the French fleet to remain intact.

我的意思是，你看到的情況與維希法國向德國投降時法國艦隊發生的情況類似，英國人不允許法國艦隊保持完整。

Brian Cavanagh served alongside Robert O'Brien on the National Security Council, working to protect critical infrastructure, including chips.

布萊恩·卡瓦納與羅伯特·奧布萊恩 一起在國家安全委員會任職，致力於保護包括晶片在內的關鍵基礎設施。

When you hear somebody like Ambassador O'Brien say, they just assumed destroy the fabs before allowing China to take over the fabrication plants as indicative of the commitment the United States has to ensuring that Taiwan is able to remain independent.

當你聽到像奧布萊恩大使這樣的人說時，他們只是假設在允許中國接管製造工廠之前摧毀工廠，以表明美國必須確保台灣能夠保持獨立。

If those chips, the manufacturer of those chips were to fall into the wrong hands, you would lose the assurance of security that we have today from TSMC, and that's something that would erode the national security in a way that is almost insurmountable.

如果這些晶片、這些晶片的製造商落入壞人之手，你將失去我們今天從台積電獲得的安全保證，這將以幾乎無法克服的方式侵蝕國家安全。

To reduce the risks, the U.S. is investing billions of dollars to shift the supply chain back home.

為了降低風險，美國正在投資數十億美元將供應鏈轉移回國內。

We're gonna make sure the supply chain for America begins in America.

我們將確保美國的供應鏈始於美國。

President Biden's Chips Act includes subsidies to encourage TSMC and other chip makers to expand production outside of Taiwan, and onto U.S. soil.

拜登總統的晶片法案包括鼓勵台積電和其他晶片製造商將生產擴大到台灣以外和美國本土的補貼。

TSMC recently announced a factory expansion in Arizona, raising its investment in the U.S. chip economy to $65 billion.

台積電最近宣佈在亞利桑那州擴建工廠，將其對美國晶片經濟的投資增加至650億美元。

Two factories are already under construction, but the company is grappling with a number of issues.

兩家工廠已經在建設中，但該公司正在努力解決一些問題。

TSMC has faced some real challenges in learning to operate in very different environments.

台積電在學習如何在截然不同的環境中運作方面面臨著一些真正的挑戰。

Finding the right types of workers that are needed in constructing these ultra-complex facilities and managing the construction process has, I think, been more difficult and more time-consuming than TSMC initially expected.

我認為，尋找建造這些超複雜設施所需的合適工人類型並管理建造過程比台積電最初預期的更困難、更耗時。

The company is trying to get U.S. visas for hundreds of skilled Taiwanese workers, but American unions say this is an excuse to hire cheap foreign labor.

該公司正試圖為數百名台灣技術工人獲得美國簽證，但美國工會表示，這是僱用廉價外國勞動力的藉口。

Beyond the U.S., TSMC is building its first factory in Europe with the support of the German government.

除美國之外，台積電正在德國政府的支持下在歐洲建造第一家工廠。

It's also opened its first plant in Japan.

它還在日本開設了第一家工廠。

The factory in Japan won't be operational anytime soon, and it will not produce the cutting-edge chips that it makes in Taiwan.

日本的工廠不會很快投入營運，也不會生產在臺灣生產的最先進晶片 。

With delays at the Arizona plants, the race to secure the supply chain is getting extremely tight.

由於亞利桑那州工廠的延誤，確保供應鏈安全的競賽變得異常緊張。

Speaking about the threat to Taiwan, the timeline was becoming actually contracted quite dramatically in real time.

談到對台灣的威脅，時間線實際上正在急劇縮短。

And people were looking at a 2027 event horizon for action on Taiwan, and a potential blockade in the Taiwan Straits.

人們正在關注2027年台灣事件的可能發生，並可能在台灣海峽實施封鎖。

For the U.S., de-risking the supply chain of a key technology with a single choke point is an urgent priority, but there are limits to what can be done outside of Taiwan.

對美國來說，透過單一瓶頸消除關鍵技術供應鏈的風險是當務之急，但在台灣以外可以做的事情有限。

There's no plausible scenario under which Taiwan isn't a absolutely central player, even under the most dramatic scenarios of de-risking.

在最激烈的降低風險情境下，台灣都不可能不成為絕對中心的角色。

The reality is that the entire world, including the United States, will be highly reliant on Taiwan for a very long time to come.

現實情況是，包括美國在內的整個世界將在未來很長一段時間內高度依賴台灣。

The fight to control the chip supply chain has only just begun.

晶片供應鏈控制權之爭才剛開始。

The bottom line, is that while it may be easy to take the chips out of Taiwan, it's hard to take Taiwan out of the chips.

最重要的是，雖然將晶片帶出台灣可能很容易，但將台灣帶出晶片卻很難。