When I satdownwithPresidentTsaiatherhomeinTaipei, I beganonthatdelicatetopic, thethreatfromChina, andwhetherit's increasedundertheleadershipofXiJinping.
I thinkXiJinpingnowdislikesthefactthathemayhave a planofsomesort.
But I don't thinkthatis a definitiveplan, becausetheworldischanging.
ThesituationinChinaischanging.
Buttheworldisverydifferentnow, especiallyaftertheUkrainianwar, becausethedemocracyseemstobeabletogettogethertoform a meaningfuldeterrencewheneverthereisaninvasioncontemplated.
Soifwedealwiththematterverycarefully, there's still a greatpossibilityforustomaintainpeaceasweallneed.
Tsai's predecessor, PresidentMaYing-jeou, hadtriedtonegotiatewithChina, evenholding a meetingwithPresidentXiJinpinginSingapore.
TodaytheLionDanceistocelebratetheopeningof a newspecialforcestrainingbaseontheoutskirtsofTaipei, anothertangibleexampleofwherethisnewmilitaryspendingisgoing.
So I guessforPresidentTsaithisis a sortofdemonstrationofwhatshe's beentryingtoachieveindefencepolicyoverthelasteightyears, becausepartofherbigthingisthatTaiwandoesn't spendenoughondefence.
Whenshecameinitwasabout 2% ofGDP.
She's managedtopushthatuptoabout 2.5% ofGDP.
A lotofpeoplesayTaiwanneedstobespendingnorthof 3% ofitsGDPtohaveaneffectivemilitary, giventhehugethreatthatitfacesfromChina.
I wouldsaythatthemilitarycapabilityofoursismuchstrengthenedwiththeinvestmentsthatwehaveputininthelasteightyears, andalsowiththeassistanceofourfriends, primarilyfromtheUnitedStates.
Ofcoursethatmakessomesense, butthecostoftakingoverTaiwanisgoingtobeenormous, andChineseleadershiphavetomake a goodcalculationastowhethertheyarepreparedtopaythecost.
Butwhatweneedtodoistoincreasethecostofaninvasion.
Strengtheningourmilitarycapabilityisone, andworkingwithourfriendsintheregiontoform a collectivedeterrenceisanother.
I suppose, again, justplayingdevil's advocatehere, yourcriticswouldsay, well, that's allverywell, butTaiwanhasveryfewformaldiplomaticallies.
Chinaactuallyfeelsthepressure, becauseit's notonlymilitary, it's a concern.
Theyhavetobeawareofthefactthat a warmaycosttheireconomicdevelopment, andtheeconomicconsequencesissuchthatitmayprobablydelaythedevelopmentofChinaforyears, evenfordecades.
Soifyouare a leaderofChina, whatismoreimportant, takingoverTaiwanoryourcontinuinggrowtheconomicallyandsocially?
Thepresidentisalsosomethingofananglophile, havingspenttheearly 1980s studyingfor a PhDinlawattheLondonSchoolofEconomics, justwhenBritainhadelecteditsfirstfemaleprimeminister, MargaretThatcher.
I lookedatthedates. IntheUKyoudidyourPhDin 1984.
ItwastheThatcherera.
I wonder, didyouregisterthatwhenyouwereintheUK, thatthiswasBritain's firstfemaleprimeminister, evenifyoudidn't likeher?
Sheis a verydeterminedlady. I have a lotofadmirationforher, despitethefactthat I maynotbeinagreementwithallherpolicies.
Butas a leader, sheis a toughone.
OnethingthatcomesacrossveryclearlyfromspendingtimewithPresidentTsaiisthatinspiteofitlookingverymuchlikeChina, with a similarlanguage, customsandreligiousbeliefs, sheseesTaiwanas a different, separateplacewithitsownuniquehistory.
But I wanttosaythattheTaiwansocietyanddemocracynowadaysarematureenoughtoproduceandaccept a womanpresident.
Andthatis a tremendousachievementoftheTaiwansociety.
In 2019, despiteresistancefromconservativereligiousandfamilygroups, hergovernmentpushedthroughlegislationmakingTaiwanthefirstplaceinAsiatolegalisesame-sexmarriage.