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  • Imagine a place where everything money-related

  • is frozen in time.

  • For almost three decades,

  • your salary doesn't budge,

  • the price of your unagi bowl doesn't change

  • and the interest rate on your home mortgage is closer to zero.

  • Well, that was the reality here in Japan.

  • We were used to the price of everything

  • staying pretty much the same.

  • But it wasn't always like this.

  • Since the end of World War II,

  • Japan has been Ground Zero

  • for some of the biggest experiments in economics.

  • Older Japanese like Tomiko, a pensioner

  • and Suetaka, who runs a real estate agency,

  • have experienced a rollercoaster of changes

  • throughout their lives.

  • Now, Japan's central bank has decided

  • it's time to end its latest experiment

  • and exit negative interest rates.

  • For the first time since 2007,

  • the Bank of Japan, or the BOJ, raised rates.

  • YCC. Gone.

  • The end of negative rates as well.

  • So how did Japan decide to manage its economy

  • so differently from the rest of the world?

  • And how is this massive shift going to disrupt

  • everyday lives across the country?

  • Japanese growth hasn't always been this stagnant.

  • At one point, the economy was growing so fast

  • that it looked like it was about to overtake the US

  • as the world's biggest.

  • Taro Kimura covers the Japanese economy for Bloomberg Economics.

  • Before, he used to work at the BOJ.

  • So here he is with a mini history lesson.

  • After the post-war devastation,

  • Japan achieved something called

  • economic miracle from the 1960s to early 1970s.

  • That growth was led by a huge domestic demand

  • because the middle class households were expanding.

  • And in the late 1980s, Japan's economy actually accounted for

  • about 10% of the world's total economy.

  • At the time, many were flush with cash and reckless spending was the norm.

  • By the end of the 1980s, the stock market was on the up and up,

  • hitting record highs.

  • What was crazier was the real estate price.

  • For example, the land price of Tokyo's Imperial Palace

  • was said to be equivalent

  • to the price of the state of California.

  • Then the bust came.

  • In the first of its shock moves,

  • the BOJ sharply raised interest rates in 1989,

  • trying to curb speculation and rein in inflation.

  • The government also introduced measures to cool the property sector.

  • Nikkei stock price index fell to half of its peak value,

  • and real estate prices also plunged.

  • That led to a long-term downturn.

  • Authorities had tried to pump the brakes,

  • but instead they sent the economy to a screeching halt.

  • People in Japan didn't experience

  • wage growth and inflation for about three decades.

  • That means one generation full of people.

  • I myself growing up in Japan

  • learned the concept of inflation from a macroeconomic textbook.

  • Living in the world in no inflation

  • makes people attached to a certain product with a certain price.

  • A small amount of inflation can help drive economic growth

  • by keeping money moving around.

  • Most economies target relatively mild inflation of about 2%.

  • But as you can see from the yellow,

  • Japan's inflation stayed below that for a long time.

  • As things got worse,

  • the Bank of Japan followed the typical playbook for central banks:

  • lowering interest rates.

  • You can see the Fed, for example,

  • slashed rates to cope with the fallout

  • from the 2008 financial crisis.

  • But the BOJ, for more than 20 years,

  • kept at it with its almost flat line,

  • but it didn't help lift the country out of deflation.

  • In 2013, the BOJ decided to do something drastic again.

  • It introduced the Quantitative and Qualitative Easing policy,

  • an unconventional move where

  • they basically print a lot of cash

  • and pump it into the market by aggressively buying Japanese government bonds.

  • It was successful at first,

  • but Japan faced deflation again a couple years later,

  • so the BOJ went back to its box of tricks.

  • In 2016, it adopted negative rates,

  • a move that divided economists.

  • The main goal was to deter saving and also

  • punish banks that hoarded cash.

  • But, that didn't really work, either.

  • In response, the BOJ invented something called yield curve control.

  • Yield curve control is an attempt that the BOJ

  • controls not only short-term, but also the long-term rates

  • so that businesses and households

  • don't have to worry about too much fluctuation in interest rates.

  • It could keep interest rates low

  • by threatening to buy bonds, without always having to actually buy them.

  • That still didn't solve everything.

  • Companies couldn't find enough profitable ways to invest their money in Japan.

  • Many ended up looking abroad for better returns,

  • so much so that Japan became the biggest foreign holder of US Treasury debt,

  • overtaking China.

  • Suddenly in 2022, all of that changed.

  • Japan finally hit its 2% inflation target.

  • The problem was what prompted it.

  • First it was higher energy costs due to the Ukraine war.

  • And second, a weaker yen.

  • Bank of Japan was continuing to

  • ease monetary policy to stimulate the economy

  • and even inflation.

  • However, other major central banks

  • hiked rates in order to fight inflation.

  • Eventually, it was external forces that

  • pushed Japan toward ending its experiments.

  • In other words, it was not the sort of inflation that Japan wanted,

  • because it wasn't coming from consumers spending more.

  • Wages stayed low, even as inflation

  • hit 4.3% in January 2023,

  • which was the fastest in decades.

  • But it still caused the yen to weaken,

  • boosting profits at companies like Sony and Toyota

  • which sell products abroad.

  • That finally brought about some signs of change.

  • The business leaders, who used to be reluctant to raise compensation

  • now started to become open to raising wages.

  • The main labor unions secured the biggest wage increases in 30 years.

  • So finally on March 19, 2024, the BOJ took a big step.

  • The Bank of Japan has ended negative interest rates,

  • 17 years since the last hike.

  • They're scapping the yield curve control.

  • They're also going to essentially pair back

  • their purchase of ETFs.

  • Raising the interest rate from -0.1% to a range of 0-0.1%

  • doesn't seem like much, but it does put Japan

  • back in line with other economies.

  • We asked at the top that if Japan's negative rates experiment ends,

  • what now?

  • Well, here are some of the changes we can expect to see.

  • First, mortgages will get more expensive for the first time in decades.

  • And interest payments on the government's more than $8 trillion of debt,

  • which is about twice the size of the country's economy, will increase.

  • The same thing will happen to companies.

  • It could also propel the yen higher.

  • That means your trips to Japan could get more expensive.

  • And Japanese exports would take a hit too.

  • On the flip side, it can also make investing in Japan more lucrative.

  • Plus, cheaper fuel and food imports are good news for Japanese consumers.

Imagine a place where everything money-related

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