For my first video back, I wanted to update my Nvidia stock price prediction for 2025.

That's the end of next year.

So to make this prediction, I'm going to use several assumptions and estimates that have been updated from Wall Street, from Nvidia, and several factors have changed that have changed my stock price prediction for Nvidia stock.

So let me share with you all of the numbers I'll be using for my Nvidia stock price prediction and then I'll update and I'll share with you where I think Nvidia stock price will be by the end of next year.

So let's take a look.

Alright, so one of the numbers I'm gonna need to make my Nvidia stock price prediction is the current share price and Nvidia stock price has faced a little bit of a headwind here.

It's now down to $123 per share, down from higher levels earlier this month now, or last month I should say.

Now that was pending, right?

Nvidia stock price has absolutely soared in the last few years.

So a little bit of a pullback was due.

I know a lot of investors panicked because of the pullback, but remember Nvidia stock price is not gonna go up every day.

It's been rare that Nvidia stock price has performed so excellently in the last few months.

That's not to be expected going forward.

Rarely does a stock go up as much as Nvidia has gone up.

So a little bit of a pullback was inevitable.

That's understandable.

I don't think it's reason for investors to panic.

So let's take a look at my stock price prediction.

It's Nvidia's forward price to earnings ratio.

It's currently trading at a forward PE of 34.56, down slightly from the forward PE ratios closer to 40.

It was trading at peak valuations earlier in 2024 and over the last few weeks.

Now another number I'm gonna need for my prediction is Nvidia's earnings per share.

Now it's expected to earn $3.63 in earnings per share next year.

Now I want to highlight something unique about Nvidia.

Well I shouldn't say unique, but I should say something interesting about Nvidia and that is that its fiscal year and calendar year are not matching.

So right now it says current year 2025 for Nvidia.

That's because it's in fiscal year 2025 even though we're in calendar year 2024.

So Nvidia is one year ahead on its fiscal year compared to the calendar year.

Companies are allowed to do that.

Next year it says 2026 but for calendar year that's 2025.

I wanted to point that out so as if you're watching the screen and thinking is that a typo?

No, the companies are allowed to have fiscal years that are different than calendar years.

Many many companies do this.

It is confusing and annoying but they are allowed to do it.

Okay I wanted to point that out.

Interestingly also these are the estimates for its earnings per share from the Wall Street analysts that are following Nvidia stock.

So these are a collection of Wall Street professionals that are following the stock and they make their predictions, their forecasts for where they think earnings per share will be.

Now these numbers change quite frequently and those updates are reflected here in the EPS trend.

You could see 90 days ago the analysts on Wall Street were expecting $3.37 in earnings per share on a split adjusted basis.

Remember 90 days ago the stock had not split yet and that's why you see $30.37 here 90 days ago and $3.63 here as the current estimate.

This is on a split adjusted basis.

This is on a pre-split basis and all it does is multiply by 10 or divide by 10 since the stock was split 10 for 1.

So as you'll notice the earnings per share estimates from Wall Street have been steadily increasing from $30.37 or $3.37 on a split adjusted basis up to $31.18 to $35.66 before taking a slight dip here 7 days ago to $33.80 and then back up to $36.30 or $3.63 on a split adjusted basis.

So Wall Street is becoming even more bullish on Nvidia stock if you can believe that's possible because there's been so much bullishness around Nvidia stock.

Myself I've been bullish on Nvidia stock.

I've had Nvidia stock rated as one of my top 24 stocks to buy in 2024 and I've had it there all year long so I've been optimistic on Nvidia stock.

Wall Street is now coming along and also being optimistic on Nvidia stock.

The other number I'm gonna need is a growth rate estimate for Nvidia because I'm gonna be using the forward price to earnings multiple.

I need the earnings per share for Nvidia in 2026 in calendar year 2026 which would be fiscal year 2027.

You saw up there I didn't have that number given to me by the Yahoo Finance website.

So they do give me the growth estimates for Nvidia stock.

Next year Nvidia is expected to increase earnings per share by 33.9% and then for the next five years they're expected to increase earnings per share by 46.35%.

So I'm gonna use these figures to estimate one year's worth of earnings per share growth for Nvidia.

Now I'm gonna use a blended average of these two growth rates.

So instead of using 34% or 46% I'm gonna use 40% because it's right about the middle of these two growth rates.

Instead of taking the conservative estimate or the optimistic estimate at 46 I'm gonna go in the middle at 40% as my growth rate for Nvidia's earnings per share next year.

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Alright so now that we have the numbers we're gonna use let's go ahead and make our calculations and prediction.

So remember we said calendar year 2025 Nvidia's earnings per share $3.63 and I got that from the Wall Street analyst estimates.

Remember we also said I'm going to use the 40% growth rate estimate because that's the blended average of the two different earnings per share growth rates for next year in the next five years.

So if I apply that 40% growth rate to the $3.63 EPS for 2025 I get an EPS for 2026 of $5.08.

Now that we have the EPS estimate for 2026 we can go ahead and apply our forward PE multiple to make our price prediction.

So if the forward PE multiple were to remain where it is today at 34.56 and the EPS comes in on trend for $5.08 then Nvidia's stock price could be $175.63 by the end of 2025.

Now that would be a nice increase of about $50 per share from the current $123 per share the If the forward PE multiple were to increase even more that would mean the forward PE multiple at 45 could mean the stock price would rise to $228 per share that would be an increase of about $100 per share from its current valuation.

If the forward PE multiple were to decrease, if there were some factors that were unfavorable to Nvidia stock, if competition was to suddenly and a scenario which I think is unlikely, then the forward PE multiple could fall to $25 and the stock price would be relatively flat at $127 per share.

And in an even worse case scenario where the forward PE multiple were to fall by roughly half to $18 then the stock price could fall to $91.48.

So even in scenario where the forward PE multiple were to slash by almost half the stock price would not be down by a devastating amount to $91 per share.

So you can understand why I've been bullish on Nvidia stock with great upside and a seemingly limited downside that is of course if earnings per share continues at the current pace.

This is all assuming that earnings per share continues growing at a robust rate as we have assumed with our estimates.

Now I've created four different scenarios here but which one do I think is the most likely?

That's where I'm gonna make my 2025 stock price target for Nvidia stock.

I think Nvidia stock ends somewhere between the forward PE multiple of $34 and $45 and I think the stock price ends up by the end of 2025 somewhere between $175 per share and $200 per share.

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