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  • Folks, we have some mind-blowing Tesla updates, absolutely insane, you want to hear this.

  • No doubt it's been a rough ride for the past few months, but today is a good day to be a Tesla shareholder.

  • Two things have happened over the past 2 days, give or take, that absolutely blows Tesla out of the water.

  • On the one hand, ARK Invest came out about 2 days ago and released a new price target for Tesla for 2029, a whole new model, and it absolutely is insane.

  • On the other hand, yesterday, the shareholders of Tesla did what they had to do, which is approve both the Elon pay package and the move away from Delaware to Texas.

  • So let's start with the shareholder vote, which is absolutely a massive event.

  • Now a while ago, we had a court that basically threw out Elon's 2018 pay package.

  • Now the court and the specific judge, they grabbed on to some sort of a technicality, but at the end of the day, it was very clear that this got thrown out because the specific judge thought it was unfair, because it was excessive.

  • Now I remind you, we don't live in a communist country, and this was approved by the shareholders, this was approved by a board of very sophisticated individuals like Larry Ellison, a lot of smart people voted for this in 2018, and yet the court of Delaware found it a really good idea to intervene and cancel this, like something you would have seen from a communist court in China or in USSR.

  • Nevertheless, Elon Musk took it in stride, and he basically said, you know what, bet.

  • I'm going to move my company to Texas, where this sort of thing can't happen because the Delaware court is out of control, and I'm going to put up a brand new pay package of $56 billion to my current shareholders.

  • And they'll approve it because they understand it's not only fair, it's not only contractually binding, it's in their best interest to do so.

  • In fact, if Elon Musk would have come out with a completely brand new pay package that had nothing to do with the 2018 stuff, and just said, hey, you know what, I want $56 billion because I've done everything for this company for the past five years, and I brought it to greatness, more shareholders would have agreed.

  • Now, at the end of the day, and I want to extend my thanks to the great Alexander Merz for mobilizing the troops here, at the end of the day, this was a no-brainer.

  • Forget the counter arguments about the contractual law, about the fact that they had a binding shareholder resolution, a binding board approval, and all that stuff.

  • At the end of the day, at the end of the day, it's very, very simple.

  • Tesla, in its current juncture, needs Elon more than ever.

  • They want Elon to be absolutely focused, laser focused on Tesla, taking away his pay package, taking away his stock, because this is all about options, taking away his ability to control what's going on at Tesla.

  • All of this would have diverted his attention away from Tesla into other projects, which is the one thing no Tesla shareholder wants.

  • In fact, the guy who sued was a guy with nine shares.

  • It's all about the lawyers here.

  • The lawyers are asking for billions, and this whole thing was just a legal mumbo-jumbo.

  • At the end of the day, the shareholders absolutely saw it for what it is, a complete no-brainer.

  • They voted for, and then Elon Musk was asked on Twitter, hey, Elon, now that this was approved in a massive landslide, because the gap was absolutely insane, everybody voted for, with the exception of a few morons.

  • But basically, after that happened, Omar came on Twitter, sorry, on X, and he basically asked Elon Musk, you know, Elon, now that this has passed, and it's settled, will you make Tesla the most valuable company in the world?

  • And then Elon just replied, yes.

  • Now, I personally would not bet against Elon when he makes statements like this, and I think he's proven it in the past, he's definitely capable of doing so.

  • I think that this puts to bed, and rest in peace, the whole counter-argument about the Tesla key man risk, Elon going outside of Tesla to develop some new AI, the whole Tesla FUD is cleared.

  • The dude is now all in on Tesla, as he should have been, as he always were, and the shareholders did the right thing.

  • For them, for him, and for the company.

  • This opens up an opportunity to get a lot more institutional shareholders into Tesla.

  • Now that there's no more uncertainty, at least not as much as before, now that that risk is gone, you will see a lot more institutional participation in Tesla, which will drive the price of the stock up.

  • Voting no on this would have not just been unjust, it would have hurt the company, and their shareholders in a very detrimental way.

  • I don't think that people even understand on the street what this deal was.

  • It wasn't about Elon getting $56 billion in cash, that was never the deal.

  • The deal was to get options.

  • By the way, he still has to spend $7 billion to buy these options of the company, but those options will give him voting rights and control over what happens in Tesla.

  • That's what it's all about.

  • Elon was never about the money.

  • Look at it this way.

  • When the guy sold PayPal with a couple hundred millions in the bank, he could have just retired, but instead he chose to buy a rocket company and an electric vehicle company.

  • Back in those days, that's financial suicide, and yet he did it because he thought it was cool.

  • He's not really financially driven like that.

  • He wants to control over Tesla, and now that he has it, all hell will break loose.

  • I think we'll see $200 soon, and I think we'll see $250 quite soon as well, and a lot of the haters, the doubters, and the bears are about to have some really, really bad weeks.

  • Now, as far as the ARK Invest new model that just came out.

  • ARK Invest just released a new five-year price target for Tesla, a whole new model.

  • It's available on their website.

  • I'll put the link in the video.

  • Now, basically, they have three cases here.

  • Bull case, $3,100.

  • Medium case, $2,600, and bear case, $2,000, meaning that Tesla is 1,600% upside in the bull case, 1,300% upside in the medium case, and 1,000% in the bear case.

  • Basically, the model has a few assumptions, and the assumptions are very simple.

  • The main assumption is that 90% of the business in five years is not going to be from selling vehicles.

  • It will be from the robo-taxi business.

  • ARK Invest believes that within two years, the robo-taxis will launch and will become a pivotal part of Tesla, in fact, overtaking the EV sales as they are right now.

  • EV sales are projected to be 10% of the business in 2029, just to show you how big they think robo-taxi will be.

  • It doesn't mean Tesla won't sell electric vehicles.

  • Quite the contrary.

  • Based on this model, Tesla sells 5.8 million in the bear case and 14.5 million vehicles per year on the bull case in 2029.

  • As far as the gross margin, that is supposed to go up to the 50s EBITDA from 17% to 32%.

  • And basically, Tesla will become either an $11 trillion company in the max bull case or $7 trillion company in the bear case.

  • Now, they do think that the robo-taxi is a major pivotal point of this model.

  • But they did say, hey, if robo-taxi for whatever reason doesn't happen, this company is going to be worth $350 in five years, which means double than the current share price, which means 100% in five years, which means way above the S&P 500 in the bear, bear, bear case.

  • Now, they are adding miles 110 times faster and way more, which is a very distant second.

  • Nobody's going to catch the FSD stuff.

  • And the craziest part about this model is what was excluded from it.

  • In fact, with the exception of Optimus and Energy, which was taken just as a minor consideration, it does not include whatsoever FSD licensing.

  • ARK Invest is telling you that without FSD licensing, which I think is the next catalyst for Tesla, by the way, not robo-taxi, without FSD licensing, this is a $7 to $11 trillion company.

  • Now, with FSD licensing, with 80% gross margin, with this standardization of autonomous driving, we're talking about a massive, massive business that is not currently even included in this ARK Invest model, which makes you think about how big this company can really be if they launch robo-taxis and FSD within the next five years.

  • If you look at Tesla from a fundamental perspective, if you just ignore the ARK Invest model, look, this company increased its revenues in three years by 160%.

  • Operating income is up 220%.

  • Debt has come down by 20%.

  • Net income is up almost by 1000% in three years.

  • All of this is selling at six Stein sales, 52 forward PE.

  • It ain't cheap, but greatness never is.

  • Companies like this, they always traded premium.

  • And with Tesla, look, we even put it through our own stock MVP scorecard.

  • It scored 85, one of the highest scores we've seen, and only lost because it has a PE of about 30 and an institutional shareholding below 50 with 45%.

  • It's probably going to go up to 90 very, very soon.

  • Now, just to supplement the ARK Invest five-year model, my own personal DCF that shows me the current present value of Tesla is $1,400 per share, almost 10 times of where it is right now.

  • That is why this thing is 20% of my portfolio.

  • If you actually want to run your own DCF on Tesla and maybe run it through the scorecard, maybe other companies, check out stockMVP, stock-mvp.com.

  • It's a platform I've created for you guys, for the retail investors to research stocks and get better at this whole game, stock-mvp.com.

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Folks, we have some mind-blowing Tesla updates, absolutely insane, you want to hear this.

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