Wolf, here it is.

The path to 270.

The red states are in Trump's column.

The blue states are in Harris' column for the purpose of this exercise.

And we've got seven remaining yellow toss-up battleground states.

And as you know, those battleground states are razor-thin.

Look, these are our poll-a-polls in the battleground states.

No clear leader in any of them, in any of these battleground states.

So this is razor-thin.

So what is the path to victory for each candidate?

Well, the Harris campaign will say that their best, most direct path to 270 electoral votes is through the blue wall.

If she were to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, she'd be at 270 electoral votes and the next president.

But what if Donald Trump repeats his 2016 victory in Pennsylvania?

Then Harris drops down to 251, and she has to go hunting in the Sun Belt to find some more votes.

Certainly, if she were able to flip North Carolina from red to blue this time, that would get her knocking on the door to 270.

And then maybe Nevada behaves like it has for Democrats in recent cycles, and that would put Harris over the top in that scenario.

What about Donald Trump's path?

Well, let's reset the map.

Seven yellow battleground states.

And Donald Trump's most direct path is to hang on to North Carolina.

That is the state he won by the narrowest margin four years ago.

In fact, it's the only state he won of the seven battleground states.

And let's say he flips Georgia back.

You'll recall he famously lost it by just fewer than 12,000 votes.

So let's say that ends up back in his column.

And let's say he does get that Pennsylvania victory repeated from 2016.

That's it.

He'll be at 270 electoral votes.

He doesn't need any of the rest of the battleground states.

But what if Harris does pull it out in Pennsylvania?

Then where does Donald Trump go for the next 19 electoral votes?

Well, even if he were to win Nevada and Arizona out West, that still would not get him to 270.

He would need at least one of the other remaining so-called blue wall states such as Michigan.

And that would do the trick and get him over the top at 283.

Let's go to John King.

He's at the magic wall.

You know, and John, you know, it's those individual groups, whether you're talking about Arab Americans in Michigan or Jewish voters or Puerto Rican voters in Pennsylvania.

You know, everyone's talking about such specific groups because we keep hearing about how this is one of the tightest races in history.

We'll see if that's really the case.

How do you see it two days out?

The data tell us it is the closest race in the 10.

This is my 10th presidential election.

There's never been one this close, according to the numbers.

But they do sometimes break late.

So you should prepare yourself for any possibility of outcomes, a split back and forth between the states.

Or you could prepare yourself that one candidate does have late momentum and runs up most of the battleground states.

Either one of those scenarios, a sort of a split decision, a boxing match or somebody sweeping most of them is possible.

So let's go through some of the numbers.

And why do I say that?

Let's start in the blue wall states.

Right.

Look at these.

Forgive me for turning my back.

Just want to stretch this out a little bit so people can see it more clearly at home.

This is the CNN poll of polls.

You're right.

There were some New York Times data out today.

There are some hints of maybe a little bit of Harris momentum in there.

The Sunday before the election, I always lapse back into caution mode.

Right.

Let's be careful.

Let's let people vote.

Let's be respectful of the process.

And let's look at the average of the polls.

That's the safest way to do it.

Forty nine.

Forty six in Wisconsin.

So you could say Harris is the lead.

That's so close.

It's you know, that's a statistical tie.

But forty eight.

Forty six in Michigan.

Forty eight.

Forty eight.

An actual tie in, of course, battleground Pennsylvania.

So let me just shrink this down and take it off to the side a little bit and put it down here and then we'll do this one.

So that's the blue wall states.

What about the Sunbelt states?

Right.

So forgive me again.

I just want to stretch it out.

North Carolina.

Trump with a one point edge.

That's the statistical tie.

No clear leader.

Georgia.

Same thing.

Trump.

Forty nine.

Harris.

Forty seven.

So the Trump campaign say we're ahead a little bit.

I would say then that means who turns out it's going to affect that.

And Arizona.

Again, Trump consistently has had a tiny lead in Arizona.

Small in Arizona.

Forty nine.

Forty seven.

Again, certainly advantage Trump by the numbers, but within reach for the vice president.

It's that close.

So, you know, when you look at all this and you talk about how it could, you know, late break either way or something very close is very close in every state, but sort of all ends up being very close going towards one candidate.

I mean, how does all this play out, John, when you look at the path to 270?

So let's take this literally, as in let's assume it played out exactly like our averages say on the Sunday before.

Right.

So you have Harris gets Wisconsin.

Harris gets Michigan.

Pennsylvania is an actual tie.

All right.

Donald Trump would get North Carolina in that scenario.

There we go.

Make it red.

Donald Trump will get Georgia in that scenario.

Make it red.

Donald Trump gets Arizona in that scenario.

Make it red.

Where does that leave you?

Look at this.

We don't have any recent polling.

We don't have enough to have a poll of polls in Nevada.

So we're leaving that one as a toss up.

But under that scenario, just giving them as we have them in our battleground poll of polls right now. 262 for Trump. 251 for Harris.

Doesn't matter really who would win Nevada in that case.

It would get Harris to 257.

It would get Trump to 268.

So let's, for the sake of this argument, leave it yellow as a toss up, because the point is it all comes down to battleground Pennsylvania.

In this scenario, if everything plays out exactly the way it averages out right now, whoever wins Pennsylvania wins 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue and gets to be president of the United States.

So that is why the campaigns have spent more in Pennsylvania, Aaron, than any other state.

And by a huge margin, it's not really even close because they understand it's the biggest prize. 19 electoral votes.

And whoever wins Pennsylvania is likely to win the White House.

I will say this.

Harris does have an advantage here.

She does have an advantage here.

That's the third blue wall state.

Those three states have voted together since 1992.

So if that pattern were to continue, that would be for Harris.

But as you know, rules are sometimes made to be broken.

And those are the three states that made Donald Trump president.

That was the big surprise in 2016, remember, when he crashed the blue wall and won all three of them.

That is equally conceivable.

The numbers are that close.

I mean, it is incredible how really any option.

And then you would be able to look back historically and find a poll that would have supported the outcome that actually happens.

So now can we talk about I know, you know, there's been a lot of discussion out there about hurting and whether a lot of the polls are sort of showing it razor thin.

Some people are worried about being wrong.

And then all of a sudden in walks the Des Moines Register poll.

Harris ahead in Iowa, the Selzer poll and Selzer.

What stands out to you in that poll?

I mean, certainly when I first saw it on Twitter and I didn't see who did it, I said, oh, is this one of those ones that, you know, people are just sort of putting out there and making up?

And then I said, no, this is a gold standard poll.

Wow.

This isn't expected.

What do you see in there?

So Ann is one of the best in the business, right?

Does that mean Kamala Harris is going to win Iowa?

No, it doesn't mean that.

And Ann would say that in a heartbeat.

There's a margin of error.

Sometimes you're pulling in a snapshot of time.

So what was going on in the news when you were polling?

Ann would be the last one to say it means Harris is going to win.

But she'd be the first one to say her data, which is good data, says this is suddenly a very competitive race in battleground Iowa, which was not competitive.

That's what, eight points back in 2020.

I think you have a graphic you could show me.

The biggest thing to me was the shift in independent women.

You have no clear leader in the state.

You also have independent women swinging to Harris.

So has Donald Trump hurt himself?

Has Donald?

There it is right there. 57% of independent women say they're for Harris to 29% for Donald Trump.

So that's a big swing among women.

Remember, this is the first presidential election post the Dobbs decision.

This is the first presidential election after the last Iowa poll, which you mentioned was pretty close.

You know, Trump was ahead in the last Iowa poll, but that was narrowed too.

Since just before that poll, the Iowa six week abortion ban kicked in.

So it has now been the law of the land, if you will, in the state for months.

Right.

Is that having an impact in this race or something Trump has said in the last few days?

I can tell you the last time I've been to Iowa three times this year, first, mostly around the caucuses.

Then I went back and visited our Trump voters right before the Democratic convention to see what they thought of Harris.

Our focus then was on Trump voters.

But while we were in the state, we were into a lot of Democrats who said, do not forget us.

We are energized by the vice president's pick.

And this is going to be a lot closer than you think.

Maybe they were right.

Maybe.

I mean, you know, it's anybody's guess.

And of course, you know, if she ends up being right, then that is that is sure a capstone.

It just puts another step.

It just tells you how close this environment is, that states that you didn't think were going to be in play just might be.

That's why Tuesday is going to be interesting.