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  • This is Donald Trump's base, people without a bachelor's degree, also known as working-class voters.

  • And his ability to broaden his support within this group of people delivered him the 2024 election.

  • I want to thank the millions of hardworking Americans across the nation who have always been the heart and soul of this really great movement.

  • But how did he do it?

  • Let's dive into the data.

  • If we look at how these two groups voted, it's clear voters with degrees made up Kamala Harris' base support and those without made up Trump's.

  • And if you compare how these groups voted in 2020 versus today, you'll see a significant shift to Trump by the non-college voters.

  • You can see how he's made those gains if you sort the non-college voters by gender.

  • Trump made huge gains among men and a small gain among women without a college degree.

  • And if we just look at his voters, he gained support with Black and Hispanic voters since 2020.

  • It was part of a Republican strategy.

  • They argued that Hispanic voters wouldn't be alienated but would be attracted to a crackdown on immigration at the border, illegal immigration at the border.

  • And that many Black voters are culturally conservative and would respond to a culturally conservative message from Republicans.

  • This election suggests that that strategy is working.

  • I believe their values are more in line with my culture as well as my family culture and values.

  • So is the strategy to appeal to young men.

  • If you look at how voters 45 and older voted in 2020 and in 2024, their support didn't change much.

  • But when you look at younger voters, that's where things change.

  • In 2020, voters under 30 went for President Joe Biden by a 25-point margin.

  • But in 2024, voters under 30 went for Harris by only a 5-point margin.

  • One presumption that seems totally to have exploded in this election is the idea that young voters are uniformly liberal.

  • To understand this shift, let's look only at how men voted.

  • In 2020, young men supported Biden by 15 points.

  • In 2024, that support flipped.

  • And young men supported Trump by 13.

  • Trump spent a lot of time campaigning specifically to young men.

  • He went to Ultimate Fighting Championship competitions.

  • He went to a sneaker convention.

  • The audience there is largely young men.

  • He went on multiple podcasts where the audience is primarily young men.

  • You ever been in a fistfight, Mr. President?

  • Probably not.

  • He produced a video with the golfer Bryson DeChambeau.

  • For a while, it was the number one trending video on YouTube.

  • Ah, it's perfect.

  • Let's go.

  • What Trump did to win was really broaden this base of working-class voters, bringing in more men and more Black and Hispanic voters.

  • This is important because it shows the Republican Party has a path to future growth.

  • It's not just going to try to squeeze more votes out of a shrinking group in the electorate.

  • It was able to supplement white working-class voters with those from these other groups.

This is Donald Trump's base, people without a bachelor's degree, also known as working-class voters.

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How This Core Voter Group Delivered Trump the 2024 Election | WSJ State of the Stat

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    VoiceTube posted on 2024/11/08
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