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  • This is Taipei, capital of Taiwan, an island democracy of 23 million people.

  • But Taiwan's international status is highly contested.

  • It is claimed by Beijing, but it's never been part of the People's Republic of China.

  • Instead, over the last 20 years,

  • Taiwan has evolved into a thriving democracy.

  • In 2016, people here chose their first female president, Tsai Ing-wen.

  • She rejects China's claims to Taiwan and has moved the island further towards Japan and the United States.

  • When I sat down with President Tsai at her home in Taipei,

  • I began on that delicate topic, the threat from China, and whether it's increased under the leadership of Xi Jinping.

  • Do you fear Xi Jinping?

  • Do you think the world, the democratic world, should fear Xi Jinping and his ambitions?

  • I think Xi Jinping now dislike the fact that he may have a plan of some sort, but I don't think that is a definitive plan.

  • Because the world is changing.

  • The situation in China is changing.

  • But the world is very different now, especially after the Ukrainian war, because the democracy seems to be able to get together to form a meaningful deterrence whenever there is an invasion contemplated.

  • So if we deal with the matter very carefully, there's still a great possibility for us to maintain peace as we all need.

  • Tsai's predecessor, President Ma Ying-jeou, had tried to negotiate with China, even holding a meeting with President Xi Jinping in Singapore.

  • Tsai's strategy has been completely different.

  • Instead of trying to conciliate China, she's built up Taiwan's own defences.

  • Nearly doubling spending, buying new fighter jets and developing Taiwan's first indigenous submarines.

  • Today the Lion Dance is to celebrate the opening of a new special forces training base on the outskirts of Taipei, another tangible example of where this new military spending is going.

  • So I guess for President Tsai, this is a sort of demonstration of what she's been trying to achieve in defence policy over the last eight years, because part of her big thing is that Taiwan doesn't spend enough on defence.

  • When she came in, it was about 2% of GDP.

  • She's managed to push that up to about 2.5% of GDP.

  • A lot of people say Taiwan needs to be spending north of 3% of its GDP to have an effective military, given the huge threat that it faces from China.

  • One of the things you've done very differently from your predecessor, he engaged in dialogue with China.

  • He was trying to get Taiwan into basically an economic partnership with China.

  • You, when you came to power, decided on a very different course, it strikes me.

  • One of, firstly, building up Taiwan's own military strength.

  • I would say that the military capability of ours is much strengthened with the investments that we have put in in the last eight years.

  • And also with the assistance of our friends, primarily from the United States.

  • So the investment that we have put into the military capacity building is unprecedented, despite the fact that people are urging us to increase the budget further.

  • I think if there's a need, we will always increase and expand our military spendings.

  • But this is a time for us to use the money available efficiently and to build our capacity at a speed that can match with the expansion of the Chinese military capability.

  • Today, the president is also meeting some young recruits.

  • Another major reform she's pushed through is a return to one year of compulsory military service.

  • She concedes it's not won her many supporters among young voters.

  • I was actually able to convince the public here that extension of the military service is something that we need to do and I get the support of the people here.

  • And also the young people, despite they have some complaints, but it's not about their love for the country.

  • They have love for the country, they have the dedication for the country, and they have no hesitation to serve in the military.

  • It's just that we have to make sure that their time spent in the military is worthwhile.

  • We are obligated to provide them with the best equipment, best training, and they know how to protect themselves as well as protect the country.

  • President Tsai's political opponents call her military strategy naïve, even dangerous.

  • They point to the vastly superior military forces China now has at its disposal, and they say trying to defeat these with Taiwan's much smaller forces is a fool's errand.

  • Taiwan is small.

  • It has a small population compared to China, and China's military is vast.

  • Its military modernization is extraordinary.

  • And that in the end, this is what your critics would say, is Taiwan cannot hope by itself to deter China militarily.

  • Of course that makes some sense, but the cost of taking over Taiwan is going to be enormous.

  • And Chinese leadership have to make a good calculation as to whether they are prepared to pay the cost.

  • But what we need to do is to increase the cost of an invasion.

  • So strengthening our military capability is one, and working with our friends in the region to form a collective deterrence is another.

  • I suppose, again, just playing devil's advocate here, your critics would say, well, that's all very well, but Taiwan has very few formal diplomatic allies.

  • It doesn't have any formal military alliances.

  • And that during the last eight years, particularly the last four years, the situation around Taiwan has actually become objectively more threatening.

  • Of course, we cannot exclude any possibility at the moment, including a possible military conflict and invasion from China.

  • But the thing is, with the collective efforts of the parties concerned in the region,

  • China actually feels the pressure, because it's not only military, it's a concern.

  • They have to be aware of the fact that a war may cost their economic development.

  • And the economic consequences is such that it may probably delay the development of China for years, even for decades.

  • So if you are a leader of China, what is more important, taking over Taiwan or your continuing growth economically and socially?

  • Absolutely crucial to Tsai's strategy of deterring China is support from America.

  • For decades, the United States has kept China guessing as to whether they would or would not defend Taiwan if Beijing attacked.

  • But following the Russian invasion of Ukraine,

  • President Joe Biden has broken with that tradition, saying repeatedly he would send US troops to defend Taiwan.

  • Are you willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan if it comes to that?

  • Yes.

  • You are?

  • That's a commitment we made.

  • That's a commitment we made.

  • We are notlook, here's the situation.

  • We agree with a one-China policy.

  • We signed onto it, and all the attendant agreements made from there.

  • But the idea that it could be taken by force, just taken by force, is just notis just not appropriate. It would dislocate the entire region and be another action similar to what happened in Ukraine.

  • President Biden has been extremely supportive of Taiwan.

  • When asked about whether he would intervene if Taiwan were attacked, he has repeatedly said yes.

  • His critics have said that that is moving America too far away from this idea of strategic ambiguity, and that actually that makes the situation for Taiwan more dangerous.

  • I think the ambiguity is still there.

  • I think the US administration has been very careful in delivering the messages they want to deliver to the public.

  • So as far as I am concerned, the way I read it is that the ambiguity is still there.

  • The Chinese government sees things very differently.

  • When the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, landed in Taipei in August 2022 to show her support for Tsai's government,

  • Beijing reacted with fury.

  • In China's view, the United States had crossed a line.

  • Probably the most high-profile American visit during your presidency was that of the US House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi.

  • It caused a big reaction from China.

  • For the first time, China fired ballistic missiles over the top of Taiwan into the Pacific Ocean.

  • So I wonder, from your point of view, what are the benefits of these sort of very high-profile visits?

  • We have been isolated for a long time.

  • And we need friends.

  • And we need people to come and express their concerns for us.

  • So for any president, you just can't say no to a visit like the Speaker Pelosi's.

  • But the thing is that, of course, there are risks associated with it.

  • So you have to manage the risks.

  • So there are a lot of communications and diplomacies, the detail of which I cannot tell you.

  • But there are a lot of work behind the scenes to make less of an impact on the cross-strait situation.

  • How important is victory on the battlefield for Ukraine and continued Western support for Ukraine in terms of how it affects Taiwan?

  • Many people suggest that Taiwan is a much more important case than Ukraine, because we are indispensable in terms of global supply chain.

  • And our geographic location represents a great deal in terms of strategic values to the region as a whole.

  • So there are arguments that perhaps the U.S. should shift their support and resources from Ukraine to Taiwan.

  • We say, no, you have to support Ukraine until the very end, because the determination is the most important thing as far as we are concerned.

  • And we don't want to take advantage of the Western countries deciding to reduce or eventually abandon Ukraine.

  • No, that's not our position.

  • Our position is that the democracies should support Ukraine with all force and effect.

  • You mentioned Taiwan's position in the global supply chain.

  • Do you think there's now a much wider recognition of just how important?

  • We're talking here, of course, we're talking about semiconductors, right?

  • We're talking about Taiwan semiconductors and other big Taiwanese companies.

  • Do you think people around the world understand how vital Taiwan's position is?

  • Let me put it this way.

  • Ninety percent of the advanced chips are produced in Taiwan.

  • And for the future technology like AI, Taiwan holds the key.

  • So that itself is important enough for the rest of the world.

  • President Tsai has had to deal with her share of disasters, the latest a huge earthquake which hit the island last month, bringing down buildings and unleashing landslides along the mountainous east coast.

  • A week after the quake, I flew with the president as she visited the hardest hit areas.

  • So we're on board President Tsai's aircraft right now, heading from Taipei to Hualien, where there was a huge earthquake last week.

  • And she's just getting a briefing about the situation there and about what she's going to see.

  • Last time Taiwan was hit by a quake of this size, hundreds of buildings collapsed and more than 2,000 people were killed.

  • This time, the death toll was less than 20.

  • We learned the lesson, of course, the earthquake in Nantou, 25 years ago, had major damage to the region.

  • And it was devastating.

  • And people were actually shocked.

  • And we realized that we had to do something about it, because this is a place where there's no shortage of natural disaster.

  • The other crisis Tsai's government had to face was COVID-19.

  • Back in 2003, the island had been hit by SARS.

  • This time, they moved fast to close the borders.

  • And the result was in the first year of COVID-19, just seven people died of the disease in Taiwan.

  • One thing that's very noticeable, although you didn't have any lockdowns domestically, you did close your borders very quickly.

  • Was that key?

  • That is one of the keys, because of the SARS experience.

  • And the source of the disease back then was from China.

  • And this time, our suspicion is that it is also from China.

  • So we made a very quick decision and then stopped the Chinese tourist groups coming into Taiwan.

  • And that was a time very close to the Lunar New Year.

  • We made the decision and it was quick and early enough.

  • President Tsai is a famous dog and cat lover.

  • She takes me to meet her four dogs and two cats.

  • She is a retired rescue dog.

  • She's now 12 years old.

  • The president is also something of an anglophile, having spent the early 1980s studying for a PhD in law at the London School of Economics, just when Britain had elected its first female prime minister, Margaret Thatcher.

  • I looked at the dates.

  • In the UK, you did your PhD in 1984.

  • It was the Thatcher era.

  • And I just wonder, did you register that when you were in the UK, that this was Britain's first female prime minister?

  • And that she, I mean, even if you didn't like her...

  • She is a very determined lady.

  • I have a lot of admiration for her, despite the fact that I may not be in agreement with all her policies.

  • But as a leader, she's a tough one.

  • One thing that comes across very clearly from spending time with President Tsai is that in spite of it looking very much like China, with a similar language, customs and religious beliefs, she sees Taiwan as a different, separate place with its own unique history.

  • It was first colonised by the Dutch, the Spanish, and later the Japanese and Chinese.

  • So it's all left a legacy here that makes it very different.

  • Yes. So we have very diverse culture here.

  • People influence Taiwan at different times and move to Taiwan and stay here at different times.

  • So it's a very interesting place.

  • This is still a very patriarchal society.

  • You, I know, have appointed many women to high positions in government.

  • You appointed the first transgender cabinet minister in Taiwan's history, maybe in Asia's history, I'm not sure.

  • Do you think there's an enduring legacy there that will last?

  • Or is there a danger Taiwan could revert to what I might call the boys' club once you're gone?

  • I have a lot of objection about that boys' club that you use.

  • People thought it was some sort of unusual happening in Taiwan.

  • But I want to say that the Taiwan society and democracy nowadays are mature enough to produce and accept a woman president.

  • And that is a tremendous achievement of the Taiwan society.

  • People came to Taiwan at different times.

  • And we also have the indigenous people here.

  • So in an immigration society, there are a lot of challenges.

  • And people are less bound by the tradition.

  • So you're saying basically that means Taiwan is a more open-minded society than, for example, China is?

  • We have the potential of being an open society.

  • And the fact is that over the years, we realised there is a potential and become, in my view, an advanced society.

  • That is the background to what became

  • Tsai Ing-wen's boldest and most controversial piece of legislation.

  • In 2019, despite resistance from conservative religious and family groups, her government pushed through legislation making Taiwan the first place in Asia to legalise same-sex marriage.

  • You were well ahead of any other country in Asia in pushing through that legislation.

  • Why was that such an important priority for you?

  • Because that's the hope of the younger generation, because that is a way to express ourselves as a more advanced country in terms of the progressive values.

  • And also, we have very active advocates for the same-sex marriage here.

  • So it's a test to the society here to see to what extent they can move forward with their values.

  • It was a very difficult journey for us to travel through to get to the stage that the legislature finally approved the same-sex marriage.

  • So it has taken a lot of effort and a lot of people's contribution as well.

  • I am actually rather proud that we managed to overcome our differences and get together and produce a package that we can all live with.

  • And eventually, we are all proud of it.

  • It's a very different place from when I was here as a student in the 1990s, very definitely.

  • So what is it that makes you feel satisfied about how Taiwan has changed?

  • I think we're more international now.

  • We have a lot of friends outside of Taiwan.

  • We used to be rather isolated.

  • And the primary relationship that we have to manage is with China.

  • But nowadays, we have to manage a lot of other relationships with the rest of the world.

  • And we interact directly with a lot of other countries and we help each other.

  • This is a time that we feel that we are actually part of the world.

  • In a few days from now, President Tsai will hand over to her successor,

  • Taiwan's current vice president, William Lai.

  • He has promised to continue her legacy of protecting Taiwan's status quo.

  • But what exactly is that status quo?

  • In most places in the world, that is an easy question to answer.

  • But not here.

  • Most people here in Taiwan, when you look at surveys and you ask them, they say we want to maintain the status quo.

  • No unification, no independence, status quo.

  • What does the status quo mean for you?

  • I think all the people agree on this thing that we are on our own.

  • We make our own decision.

  • We have a political system to govern the place.

  • And we have constitution, we have laws regulating the society as a whole.

  • And we have our military.

  • So we have all the elements of a state.

  • And it's just that we don't have enough number of diplomatic recognitions.

  • China, of course, will say that we're part of them.

  • So it's for the people to interpret what Taiwan represents at this moment in time.

  • But the most important thing is that we are on our own and we are a democracy.

  • And we enjoy freedom and democracy and progressive values.

  • And we are a group of people that are very proud of ourselves.

  • Thank you.

This is Taipei, capital of Taiwan, an island democracy of 23 million people.

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