Subtitles section Play video Print subtitles In Syria, the Assad regime has fallen. Hafez al-Assad took power in 1971, and ruled Syria with an iron fist. Then his son Bashar took over, and survived a decades-long civil war, in part by using poison gas and barrel bombs to kill thousands of his own citizens. Just 11 days ago, he controlled pieces of a failed state. Then suddenly, rebels launched a surprise attack in Aleppo. A few days later, they took Hama, then Homs. Then late Saturday, as they closed in on the capital Damascus, Assad fled. It's an historic moment. Syrians have endured decades of oppression under Assad, and millions have lived abroad in poverty as refugees. But Syria is still in jeopardy. So how did the Assad regime collapse so quickly? And what comes next? The Syrian civil war has raged since protesters rose up against Assad in 2011. But by 2020, it had become a so-called frozen conflict. Five main groups had emerged, but fighting between them had died down. A coalition of anti-government rebels controlled a pocket of territory in the north and parts of the south. Above them, militias backed by Turkey. And to the east, Kurdish-led militias. In the southeast, remnants of the terrorist group ISIS remained. But otherwise, Assad's government controlled the rest. At least in name. In reality, he was completely reliant on two allies. At the height of the civil war, Iran had directed several militias to fight for Assad. The most powerful, Hezbollah, remained in Syria to protect him. Russia helped, too, by conducting airstrikes on the rebels and maintaining several military bases. Assad did have an army, but let it grow corrupt and weak. Without Iran and Russia, he had little to keep him in power. And in 2023, an event would start a chain reaction that would lead to his downfall. On October 7th, an Iranian-backed militia, Hamas, attacked Israel. Israel responded not only against Hamas, but also against Iranian-backed militias in Syria, Hezbollah, and even Iran itself, weakening the whole network. They could no longer protect Assad. And Russia was distracted, too, having committed most of its military to its invasion of Ukraine. This gave the rebels in Syria an opportunity to test Assad's forces in Aleppo. Celebrating their victory, rebel fighters are in the streets of Aleppo. The Syrian government's clearly abandoned both weapons and ammunition in a hurry. On the move, at pace. This lightning advance poses the biggest challenge to President Assad in many years. As rebels raced towards Damascus, neither Russia nor Iran were eager to get involved. Assad was on his own, and his troops knew it. Here are some of them reportedly changing out of their military uniforms and fleeing. As his army melted away, Assad went to the airport, where he and his family boarded a plane and fled to Moscow, ending one of the most oppressive regimes in the world. Now several different groups want to replace him. So when this story broke, obviously there was a deluge of news, and it was quite a challenge trying to separate the noise. Luckily, I was able to stay organized for this story thanks to my Ground News subscription. Ground News is a website and an app that gathers news from all over the world and puts it in one place. It then gives me a clearer way to navigate how every story is being told. Like this story about the collapse of the Assad regime. Because of today's sponsor, Ground News, I'm able to see that almost a thousand news outlets reported on the story. With nearly even reporting across the political spectrum. I could then filter the news outlets I wanted to read by political bias, recency, location, even government affiliation. In this case, I was really interested to see stories rated with a very high factuality. Ground News even uses these same tags for each story and headline, so that you have all the details on hand. I also love this interactive map feature that lets me explore news from all over the world. Ground News has become my first stop during breaking news, and I know if you're a fan of Search Party, this is the kind of thing you're looking for. So we've sponsored with Ground News to offer you 50% off their Vantage plan at the link ground.news.searchparty. You can find more info in the description or by scanning this QR code. This is the biggest discount they've ever offered, so I really recommend you giving Ground News a shot right now. It's great for anyone who wants a more clear understanding of what's happening in the world. Search Party and Ground News share the same mission, that's to make this news more transparent, more understandable. Thanks again to Ground News for supporting our work. I'll get you back to the story now. This is Abu Mohammed al-Jilani, arriving in Damascus on Sunday. He leads Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the rebel group that led the uprising and who are in the best position to take power. The biggest question is, who are they? When Syria's civil war started, Jilani helped form a group called Jabhat al-Nusra. They were Islamist extremists who aimed to turn Syria into an Islamist caliphate. Jilani initially allied with other extremist groups, Al-Qaeda and its ally ISIS. Then in 2016, he formed a new group, which he claimed was not connected to Al-Qaeda. A year later, he merged with other allegedly moderate groups to form HTS. Today it calls itself an independent entity that follows no organization or party, Al-Qaeda or others. But the U.S. regards it as a foreign terrorist organization that maintains contact with Al-Qaeda leadership. A week ago, CNN asked Jilani in this interview what his group stood for. What is HTS right now? Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is one of the factions in the region. Now we're talking about a larger project. We're talking about building Syria. No one has the right to erase another group. There must be a legal framework that protects and ensures the rights of all. He said publicly he wants to protect Syria's minorities, like Christians and Kurds. But even if Jilani controls the capital, he'll have a hard time controlling the whole country. In the north, a coalition of rebel groups called the Syrian National Army have different ideologies. Some are aligned with Turkey's government, while others still want to establish an Islamic state governed by Sharia law. Additionally, the Kurdish-led groups in the north won't want to give up their autonomy. The Kurds are an ethnic group that suffered for decades under Syria's government and value their territory as a safe haven. Many Alawites, another sect, supported Assad and may not accept rule by the rebels. And ISIS could take advantage of the chaos to try and regain strength. Elements of Assad's regime also remain, but some appear to be open-minded. His former prime minister says he's ready to hand over the government to rebels and work with them to form a new one. As these groups jockey for power, they will also have to deal with influence from outsiders. Turkey gains the most from Assad's downfall. It's hosting over 3 million Syrian refugees, and a friendly Syria will allow it to send them home. In addition, the militias Turkey backs will give it influence, and are more free to attack the Kurdish groups, which Turkey considers terrorists. Even as Assad fled, reports emerged of Turkish-backed militias attacking Kurdish towns. But it's Iran that has lost the most. Without Assad, it can't count on Syria to be a buffer between it and Israel, and it's cut off from its most important ally, Hezbollah. Other countries are more wait-and-see. If we can establish in a peaceful relations with the new forces emerging in Syria, that's our desire. But if we do not, we'll do whatever it takes to defend the state of Israel. Israel's deployed troops in southern Syria, and claims to have used airstrikes to hit weapons facilities. It opposed Assad, but will not want an Islamist regime that's even more hostile to replace him. Neither will these Arab states, who may worry that the success of Syria's rebels may inspire revolts in their own countries. Ultimately, though, none of them want Syria to descend into another bloody civil war. Zooming out further, Russia has lost a key ally in the Middle East, and may lose its military bases in Syria. The United States also has a base, which it uses to fight ISIS. On Sunday, President Joe Biden outlined a blueprint for US support in Syria. But incoming President Donald Trump stated that the US should, quote, have nothing to do with Syria, and that it should let it play out. The next Syria is just beginning to take shape. Peaceful coordination between these groups and foreign powers will be an immense challenge. But for now, Syrians across the country are in the streets, celebrating the simple fact that they have the opportunity at all. For now, I'm going to make room for this video, so next week we'll be back with our sports story. That should be the last one of the year, and then we'll be back in January. Special thanks to my team for working super hard to get this out really, really quickly. I hope you liked it, and we'll see you in a couple weeks. All right.
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