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  • In Syria, the Assad regime has fallen.

  • Hafez al-Assad took power in 1971, and ruled Syria with an iron fist.

  • Then his son Bashar took over, and survived a decades-long civil war, in part by using poison gas and barrel bombs to kill thousands of his own citizens.

  • Just 11 days ago, he controlled pieces of a failed state.

  • Then suddenly, rebels launched a surprise attack in Aleppo.

  • A few days later, they took Hama, then Homs.

  • Then late Saturday, as they closed in on the capital Damascus, Assad fled.

  • It's an historic moment.

  • Syrians have endured decades of oppression under Assad, and millions have lived abroad in poverty as refugees.

  • But Syria is still in jeopardy.

  • So how did the Assad regime collapse so quickly?

  • And what comes next?

  • The Syrian civil war has raged since protesters rose up against Assad in 2011.

  • But by 2020, it had become a so-called frozen conflict.

  • Five main groups had emerged, but fighting between them had died down.

  • A coalition of anti-government rebels controlled a pocket of territory in the north and parts of the south.

  • Above them, militias backed by Turkey.

  • And to the east, Kurdish-led militias.

  • In the southeast, remnants of the terrorist group ISIS remained.

  • But otherwise, Assad's government controlled the rest.

  • At least in name.

  • In reality, he was completely reliant on two allies.

  • At the height of the civil war, Iran had directed several militias to fight for Assad.

  • The most powerful, Hezbollah, remained in Syria to protect him.

  • Russia helped, too, by conducting airstrikes on the rebels and maintaining several military bases.

  • Assad did have an army, but let it grow corrupt and weak.

  • Without Iran and Russia, he had little to keep him in power.

  • And in 2023, an event would start a chain reaction that would lead to his downfall.

  • On October 7th, an Iranian-backed militia, Hamas, attacked Israel.

  • Israel responded not only against Hamas, but also against Iranian-backed militias in Syria, Hezbollah, and even Iran itself, weakening the whole network.

  • They could no longer protect Assad.

  • And Russia was distracted, too, having committed most of its military to its invasion of Ukraine.

  • This gave the rebels in Syria an opportunity to test Assad's forces in Aleppo.

  • Celebrating their victory, rebel fighters are in the streets of Aleppo.

  • The Syrian government's clearly abandoned both weapons and ammunition in a hurry.

  • On the move, at pace.

  • This lightning advance poses the biggest challenge to President Assad in many years.

  • As rebels raced towards Damascus, neither Russia nor Iran were eager to get involved.

  • Assad was on his own, and his troops knew it.

  • Here are some of them reportedly changing out of their military uniforms and fleeing.

  • As his army melted away, Assad went to the airport, where he and his family boarded a plane and fled to Moscow, ending one of the most oppressive regimes in the world.

  • Now several different groups want to replace him.

  • So when this story broke, obviously there was a deluge of news, and it was quite a challenge trying to separate the noise.

  • Luckily, I was able to stay organized for this story thanks to my Ground News subscription.

  • Ground News is a website and an app that gathers news from all over the world and puts it in one place.

  • It then gives me a clearer way to navigate how every story is being told.

  • Like this story about the collapse of the Assad regime.

  • Because of today's sponsor, Ground News, I'm able to see that almost a thousand news outlets reported on the story.

  • With nearly even reporting across the political spectrum.

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  • I'll get you back to the story now.

  • This is Abu Mohammed al-Jilani, arriving in Damascus on Sunday.

  • He leads Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the rebel group that led the uprising and who are in the best position to take power.

  • The biggest question is, who are they?

  • When Syria's civil war started, Jilani helped form a group called Jabhat al-Nusra.

  • They were Islamist extremists who aimed to turn Syria into an Islamist caliphate.

  • Jilani initially allied with other extremist groups, Al-Qaeda and its ally ISIS.

  • Then in 2016, he formed a new group, which he claimed was not connected to Al-Qaeda.

  • A year later, he merged with other allegedly moderate groups to form HTS.

  • Today it calls itself an independent entity that follows no organization or party, Al-Qaeda or others.

  • But the U.S. regards it as a foreign terrorist organization that maintains contact with Al-Qaeda leadership.

  • A week ago, CNN asked Jilani in this interview what his group stood for.

  • What is HTS right now?

  • Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is one of the factions in the region.

  • Now we're talking about a larger project.

  • We're talking about building Syria.

  • No one has the right to erase another group.

  • There must be a legal framework that protects and ensures the rights of all.

  • He said publicly he wants to protect Syria's minorities, like Christians and Kurds.

  • But even if Jilani controls the capital, he'll have a hard time controlling the whole country.

  • In the north, a coalition of rebel groups called the Syrian National Army have different ideologies.

  • Some are aligned with Turkey's government, while others still want to establish an Islamic state governed by Sharia law.

  • Additionally, the Kurdish-led groups in the north won't want to give up their autonomy.

  • The Kurds are an ethnic group that suffered for decades under Syria's government and value their territory as a safe haven.

  • Many Alawites, another sect, supported Assad and may not accept rule by the rebels.

  • And ISIS could take advantage of the chaos to try and regain strength.

  • Elements of Assad's regime also remain, but some appear to be open-minded.

  • His former prime minister says he's ready to hand over the government to rebels and work with them to form a new one.

  • As these groups jockey for power, they will also have to deal with influence from outsiders.

  • Turkey gains the most from Assad's downfall.

  • It's hosting over 3 million Syrian refugees, and a friendly Syria will allow it to send them home.

  • In addition, the militias Turkey backs will give it influence, and are more free to attack the Kurdish groups, which Turkey considers terrorists.

  • Even as Assad fled, reports emerged of Turkish-backed militias attacking Kurdish towns.

  • But it's Iran that has lost the most.

  • Without Assad, it can't count on Syria to be a buffer between it and Israel, and it's cut off from its most important ally, Hezbollah.

  • Other countries are more wait-and-see.

  • If we can establish in a peaceful relations with the new forces emerging in Syria, that's our desire.

  • But if we do not, we'll do whatever it takes to defend the state of Israel.

  • Israel's deployed troops in southern Syria, and claims to have used airstrikes to hit weapons facilities.

  • It opposed Assad, but will not want an Islamist regime that's even more hostile to replace him.

  • Neither will these Arab states, who may worry that the success of Syria's rebels may inspire revolts in their own countries.

  • Ultimately, though, none of them want Syria to descend into another bloody civil war.

  • Zooming out further, Russia has lost a key ally in the Middle East, and may lose its military bases in Syria.

  • The United States also has a base, which it uses to fight ISIS.

  • On Sunday, President Joe Biden outlined a blueprint for US support in Syria.

  • But incoming President Donald Trump stated that the US should, quote, have nothing to do with Syria, and that it should let it play out.

  • The next Syria is just beginning to take shape.

  • Peaceful coordination between these groups and foreign powers will be an immense challenge.

  • But for now, Syrians across the country are in the streets, celebrating the simple fact that they have the opportunity at all.

  • For now, I'm going to make room for this video, so next week we'll be back with our sports story.

  • That should be the last one of the year, and then we'll be back in January.

  • Special thanks to my team for working super hard to get this out really, really quickly.

  • I hope you liked it, and we'll see you in a couple weeks.

  • All right.

In Syria, the Assad regime has fallen.

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