sharing some of the problems.

並且分享一些問題。

And Warren Buffet had recommended I do that --

華倫巴菲特(Warren Buffet)建議我那麼做，

being honest about what was going well, what wasn't,

如實地談論好的部份與不好的部份，

and making it kind of an annual thing.

並且以年會的方式承現出來。

A goal I had there was to draw more people in to work on those problems,

我希望能吸引更多人投入解決這些問題的工作上，

because I think there are some very important problems

因為我認為這些問題非常重要，

that don't get worked on naturally.

並且需要大家的共同參與。

That is, the market does not drive the scientists,

市場無法操控科學家、

the communicators, the thinkers, the governments

傳播者、思想家與政府官員們

to do the right things.

去做正確的事情。

And only by paying attention to these things

我們必須關注這些事情，

and having brilliant people who care and draw other people in

並且讓關心此事的英才吸引更多其他的人加入，

can we make as much progress as we need to.

才能為我們所面對的問題帶來進步。

So this morning I'm going to share two of these problems

所以今天早上，我將與大家分享其中兩個問題，

and talk about where they stand.

並且談論他們的現況。

But before I dive into those I want to admit that I am an optimist.

但是在我進入這些話題之前，我必須向大家承認我是個極為樂觀的人。

Any tough problem, I think it can be solved.

任何棘手的問題我都認為有辦法去解決。

And part of the reason I feel that way is looking at the past.

而其中之一的原因是我認為我們可以由過去的經驗求得解答。

Over the past century, average lifespan has more than doubled.

在上一個世紀，人們的平均壽命延長了近一倍。

Another statistic, perhaps my favorite,

另外的一項統計，這大概是我最喜歡的部份，

is to look at childhood deaths.

就是檢視孩童的死亡率。

As recently as 1960, 110 million children were born,

在1960年代，1.1億的孩童出生，

and 20 million of those died before the age of five.

有2千萬孩童未滿5歲就夭折。

Five years ago, 135 million children were born -- so, more --

五年前，1.35億的孩童出生，比過去還多，

and less than 10 million of them died before the age of five.

然而未滿5歲就夭折的不到1千萬。

So that's a factor of two reduction of the childhood death rate.

由這兩點數據我們可看出孩童的死亡率降低了。

It's a phenomenal thing.

這只是個表面上的現象。

Each one of those lives matters a lot.

每一個被挽救的生命都充滿意義。

And the key reason we were able to it was not only rising incomes

其中重要的因素並不只是人們收入增加，

but also a few key breakthroughs:

還有幾個重要的核心技術的突破：

Vaccines that were used more widely.

疫苗被大量且廣大使用。

For example, measles was four million of the deaths

例如麻疹曾造成400萬人失去生命，

back as recently as 1990

在最近的1990年至今，

and now is under 400,000.

而今這個數字已低於40萬以下。

So we really can make changes.

所以我們真的可以創造改變。

The next breakthrough is to cut that 10 million in half again.

下一個關鍵技術的突破可以把1千萬夭折兒童的數量再減半，

And I think that's doable in well under 20 years.

我還認為在20年之後我們可以做得更好，

Why? Well there's only a few diseases

為甚麼呢? 現在只有一些少數的疾病

that account for the vast majority of those deaths:

會造成高致死率，

diarrhea, pneumonia and malaria.

這些病是腹瀉、肺炎與瘧疾。

So that brings us to the first problem that I'll raise this morning,

所以這引導出今天早上的第一個問題，

which is how do we stop a deadly disease that's spread by mosquitoes?

我們如何阻止蚊蟲散佈這些致命的疾病呢?

Well, what's the history of this disease?

這些疾病的歷史為何?

It's been a severe disease for thousands of years.

這些疾病是已存在數千年的重症。

In fact, if we look at the genetic code,

事實上，假如我們看一下遺傳基因，

it's the only disease we can see

它是唯一引起基因突變的疾病

that people who lived in Africa

住在非洲的人們

actually evolved several things to avoid malarial deaths.

為了避免瘧疾導致死亡，已經發展出幾種防治的方法。

Deaths actually peaked at a bit over five million in the 1930s.

在1930年代死亡率人數最高曾超過5百萬人。

So it was absolutely gigantic.

這真是個很大的數字，

And the disease was all over the world.

而且這種疾病傳遍全球。

A terrible disease. It was in the United States. It was in Europe.

它是個可怕的疾病。它出現在美國，也出現在歐洲。

People didn't know what caused it until the early 1900s,

但在20世紀之前人們都不知道病因，直到1900年初期，

when a British military man figured out that it was mosquitoes.

一位英國的士兵發現了蚊子才是元兇。

So it was everywhere.

所以它造成大流行。

And two tools helped bring the death rate down.

有兩種工具能幫助降低死亡率，

One was killing the mosquitoes with DDT.

一種是靠DDT來殺死蚊子。

The other was treating the patients with quinine, or quinine derivatives.

另外一種是利用奎寧或者類奎寧這種藥品來治療病患。

And so that's why the death rate did come down.

這也是為甚麼這疾病的致死率迅速下降的原因。

Now, ironically, what happened was,

但現在諷刺的是，

it was eliminated from all the temperate zones,

瘧疾在溫帶地區幾乎被消滅，

which is where the rich countries are.

正是富裕國家的所在地。

So we can see: 1900, it's everywhere.

所以我們可以看到，1900年全世界飽受瘧疾的困擾，

1945, it's still most places.

到了1945年，它仍然肆虐大多數地區。

1970, the U.S. and most of Europe have gotten rid of it.

到了1970年，美國與歐洲大部份的國家已經擺脫瘧疾了。

1990, you've gotten most of the northern areas.

1990年時，北半球的國家幾乎都已經免除瘧疾的威脅。

And more recently you can see it's just around the equator.

到今天你只能到赤道附近的國家才能看到這類的疾病。

And so this leads to the paradox that

這指出一項矛盾的事，

because the disease is only in the poorer countries,

只有在貧困的國家中才會受到這疾病的肆虐，

it doesn't get much investment.

所以它缺乏投資。

For example, there's more money put into baldness drugs

例如投入研發治療禿頭的資金，

than are put into malaria.

就超過瘧疾。

Now, baldness, it's a terrible thing.

當然禿頭很可怕，

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

And rich men are afflicted.

富人們飽受其苦。

And so that's why that priority has been set.

這也是為甚麼它比投資瘧疾還來得重要。

But, malaria --

但是，

even the million deaths a year caused by malaria

瘧疾每年可以奪走上百萬生命

greatly understate its impact.

所造成的影響還不只如此。

Over 200 million people at any one time are suffering from it.

超過2億人口每刻都受到它的威脅，

It means that you can't get the economies in these areas going

所以在瘧疾流行的區域，經濟是無法得到發展的，

because it just holds things back so much.

因為它實在是影響太大了。

Now, malaria is of course transmitted by mosquitoes.

當然，瘧疾是由蚊子傳播的。

I brought some here, just so you could experience this.

我帶了一些到現場，就是希望大家可以也體驗一下子。

We'll let those roam around the auditorium a little bit.

我們可以一起在這個會場中聽一下它們的嗡嗡聲。

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

There's no reason only poor people should have the experience.

沒有理由只讓窮人們體驗這種感覺

(Laughter) (Applause)

(笑聲) (鼓掌)

Those mosquitoes are not infected.

放心，這些蚊子並沒有帶有瘧疾。

So we've come up with a few new things. We've got bed nets.

我們已經有一些新的方法。例如蚊帳。

And bed nets are a great tool.

蚊帳非常有用。

What it means is the mother and child stay under the bed net at night,

當晚上母親和小孩待在蚊帳內，

so the mosquitoes that bite late at night can't get at them.

那麼叮人的蚊子就沒輒了。

And when you use indoor spraying with DDT

當你在室內噴灑DDT

and those nets

並和蚊帳一起使用，

you can cut deaths by over 50 percent.

可以使致死率降低超過一半。

And that's happened now in a number of countries.

現在已經有許多國家可以做到了，

It's great to see.

這真是太棒了。

But we have to be careful because malaria --

但是我們仍然要小心虐疾，

the parasite evolves and the mosquito evolves.

因為寄生蟲和蚊子都在進化。

So every tool that we've ever had in the past has eventually become ineffective.

過去我們用來對付瘧疾的工具到最後都有可能失效。

And so you end up with two choices.

最後只有兩條路可以選擇，

If you go into a country with the right tools and the right way,

帶著正確的工具和正確的方法到一個國家，

you do it vigorously,

並衝滿活力地去執行防疫工作，

you can actually get a local eradication.

那麼你可以做到局部的根除，

And that's where we saw the malaria map shrinking.

使瘧疾流行範圍被縮小在地圖上的某一部份。

Or, if you go in kind of half-heartedly,

或者，如果你是半推半就地去從事防疫工作，

for a period of time you'll reduce the disease burden,

一段時間內你可以降低人們對這疾病的負擔，

but eventually those tools will become ineffective,

但是最後這些工具將會失效，

and the death rate will soar back up again.

致死率又會回到之前的高峰。

And the world has gone through this where it paid attention and then didn't pay attention.

這兩種情況都曾經世界上發生過。

Now we're on the upswing.

現在我們正處於這種疾病的上升期，

Bed net funding is up.

蚊帳的資助量在增加，

There's new drug discovery going on.

新的藥物正在進行研發。

Our foundation has backed a vaccine that's going into phase three trial

我們的基金會正在支持一項已經進入第三期實驗的疫苗工作，

that starts in a couple months.

並在兩個月之後可以開始使用。

And that should save over two thirds of the lives if it's effective.

如果有效的話將可以拯救超過2/3的生命。

So we're going to have these new tools.

所以我們即將擁有這樣新的工具。

But that alone doesn't give us the road map.

但是這些個工具能不足以替我們指出一條新的道路。

Because the road map to get rid of this disease

因為在消滅這些疾病的道路之上

involves many things.

包含太多的事了。

It involves communicators to keep the funding high,

它需要透過溝通者來確保投資充的，

to keep the visibility high,

將它盡量透明化，

to tell the success stories.

並且傳播成功的故事。

It involves social scientists,

它還需要社會科學家

so we know how to get not just 70 percent of the people to use the bed nets,

來協助我們指導，不只是70%人們去使用蚊帳，

but 90 percent.

而是90%的人們。

We need mathematicians to come in and simulate this,

我們需要數學家來幫助建立數值模型，

to do Monte Carlo things to understand how these tools combine and work together.

例如蒙地卡羅方法(Monte Carlo)來讓我們更加瞭解這些工具相互配合後所得到的作用為何。

Of course we need drug companies to give us their expertise.

當然我們需要藥廠給我們專業的協助。

We need rich-world governments to be very generous in providing aid for these things.

我們還需要富國的政府能慷慨地資助這些活動。

And so as these elements come together,

當這些條件都具備了，

I'm quite optimistic

我才能非常的樂觀

that we will be able to eradicate malaria.

看待我們能夠根除瘧疾這件事。

Now let me turn to a second question,

現在讓我們轉到第二個問題上面，

a fairly different question, but I'd say equally important.

一個與前一個問題毫無相關的問題，但同樣很重要，

And this is: How do you make a teacher great?

這問題就是 : 如何創造一位好的老師。

It seems like the kind of question that people would spend a lot of time on,

這個問題看起來似乎要我們費很多的時間去思考，

and we'd understand very well.

但是我們卻很容易理解這問題。

And the answer is, really, that we don't.

但是事實上，真的，我們並不瞭解這樣的問題。

Let's start with why this is important.

就讓我先說說為甚麼這個問題那麼的重要。

Well, all of us here, I'll bet, had some great teachers.

我敢說在座的各位都曾經被好的老師教導過，

We all had a wonderful education.

我們也都受過很好的教育。

That's part of the reason we're here today,

這也是為甚麼我們今天坐在這裡的原因，

part of the reason we're successful.

也是我們為甚麼成功的部分原因。

I can say that, even though I'm a college drop-out.

甚至可以這樣說，我雖是個大學沒畢業的中輟生，

I had great teachers.

但仍有很棒的老師教導過我。

In fact, in the United States, the teaching system has worked fairly well.

事實上，美國的教育系統運作得還不錯。

There are fairly effective teachers in a narrow set of places.

在少數地方聚集了有影響力的老師。

So the top 20 percent of students have gotten a good education.

所以排名前20%的學生得到了好的教育。

And those top 20 percent have been the best in the world,

而那前20%的學生成為了這世界上的精英，

if you measure them against the other top 20 percent.

與其它世上其它國家前20%的學生相比，

And they've gone on to create the revolutions in software and biotechnology

美國前20%的精英學生創造並引領了軟體工業與生物科技的革命，

and keep the U.S. at the forefront.

並使美國站在世界的前峰。

Now, the strength for those top 20 percent

現在，這些前20%精英們的能量，

is starting to fade on a relative basis,

相對於之前來說已經開始漸漸消失，

but even more concerning is the education that the balance of people are getting.

但取而代之的是人們關注於是否可得到這些教育的平衡性。

Not only has that been weak; it's getting weaker.

而這種平衡性的減弱，卻要比整體教育體制的減弱還更強。

And if you look at the economy, it really is only providing opportunities now

假如你看經濟領域就可以發現，現在得到好工作機會的人

to people with a better education.

都是受過較好的教育。

And we have to change this.

這亟需改變。

We have to change it so that people have equal opportunity.

我們需要做改變才能讓每個人都得到平等的機會，

We have to change it so that the country is strong

這樣國家才會變強大，

and stays at the forefront

並且在各領域繼續保持名列前茅：

of things that are driven by advanced education,

與高等教育相關的，

like science and mathematics.

例如科學與數學。

When I first learned the statistics

當我第一次看到統計數字時

I was pretty stunned at how bad things are.

我真被這糟糕的現況給嚇到了。

Over 30 percent of kids never finish high school.

超過30%的學生無法完成他們高中學業。

And that had been covered up for a long time

而且這個數據還是長期被低估的，

because they always took the dropout rate as the number

因為在統計輟學率時它只是

who started in senior year and compared it to the number who finished senior year.

比對當年升上高三的學生數量與完成高三學業學生的數量，

Because they weren't tracking where the kids were before that.

所以它不包含高三前的學生狀況，

But most of the dropouts had taken place before that.

但是大多數的輟學都在高三前就發生了，

They had to raise the stated dropout rate

輟學率被大大的低估了。

as soon as that tracking was done

如果將高三前的資料列入統計，

to over 30 percent.

輟學率一定超過30%。

For minority kids, it's over 50 percent.

對於少數民族的學生來說，輟學率甚至超過50%。

And even if you graduate from high school,

即使完成了高中學業，

if you're low-income,

如果來自低收入家庭，

you have less than a 25 percent chance of ever completing a college degree.

那麼將只有25%的機會可以完成大學學位。

If you're low-income in the United States,

在美國如果你是低收入戶的話，

you have a higher chance of going to jail

那麼你進監獄的機會，

than you do of getting a four-year degree.

反而高於你獲得大學學位。

And that doesn't seem entirely fair.

這完全不公平。

So, how do you make education better?

所以我們該如何改善我們的教育系統呢?

Now, our foundation, for the last nine years, has invested in this.

過去九年來，我們的基金一直投資在這上面。

There's many people working on it.

有許多人為此努力地工作著。

We've worked on small schools,

我們做小型的學校，

we've funded scholarships,

我們提供獎學金，

we've done things in libraries.

我們幫忙修建圖書館。

A lot of these things had a good effect.

諸多此類的事情都造成不錯的效果。

But the more we looked at it, the more we realized that having great teachers

但隨著我們了解愈深，我們就會瞭解到擁有偉大的老師

was the very key thing.

是一件重要的事。

And we hooked up with some people studying

我們曾經聯繫一些

how much variation is there between teachers,

致力於研究師資差異性的人，

between, say, the top quartile -- the very best --

譬如說那些位於頂尖1/4的師資們

and the bottom quartile.

和那些最差的1/4之間的差距，

How much variation is there within a school or between schools?

以及同校內或者跨校間老師的差異有多少呢?

And the answer is that these variations are absolutely unbelievable.

這差異會讓你難以置信。

A top quartile teacher will increase the performance of their class --

頂尖的那1/4的師資將會提高他們班上學生的教育水準，

based on test scores --

當你用分數去衡量的話，

by over 10 percent in a single year.

短短的一年內就可以提高10%。

What does that mean?

這代表著甚麼意義嗎?

That means that if the entire U.S., for two years,

這表示假如全美國在兩年之內，

had top quartile teachers,

全部由這頂尖的1/4師資授課，

the entire difference between us and Asia would go away.

那麼美國與亞洲的的教育差距將不復存在。

Within four years we would be blowing everyone in the world away.

在四年之內，我們的教育水準將超過世界上的任何一個國家。

So, it's simple. All you need are those top quartile teachers.

所以很簡單，我們唯一需要的就是這1/4的頂尖師資。

And so you'd say, "Wow, we should reward those people.

也許你們會那麼說「喔，我們應該獎勵這些人。

We should retain those people.

要留住這些人。

We should find out what they're doing and transfer that skill to other people."

我們應該要研究他們的教學方式並傳授給其它人。」

But I can tell you that absolutely is not happening today.

但是我可以跟您說，這些事情直一件也沒有發生。

What are the characteristics of this top quartile?

這頂尖1/4的師資具有怎樣的特性呢?

What do they look like?

他們看起來是甚麼樣的呢?

You might think these must be very senior teachers.

你也許認為這些老師是相當的資深。

And the answer is no.

但是你錯了。

Once somebody has taught for three years

在經過最初三年的教學之後，

their teaching quality does not change thereafter.

這些老師的教學品質就不會有太大的改變了。

The variation is very, very small.

即使有，這些改變也非常的小。

You might think these are people with master's degrees.

你或許會認為這些老師都有碩士學位。

They've gone back and they've gotten their Master's of Education.

他們都曾經回到大學去拿到教育學的碩士學位。

This chart takes four different factors

這邊有個圖表說明了4個不同的因素，

and says how much do they explain teaching quality.

並且解釋其各自與教學品質之間的關聯性。

That bottom thing, which says there's no effect at all,

最下面的這一條，說明了與教學品質最無關的

is a master's degree.