Name: 費裡德的觀點：加薩停火揭示了中東新格局！ (Fareed’s take: What the Gaza ceasefire reveals about the new Middle East)
Uploaded: 2025-12-26T16:59:15.000Z
Duration: 5 min 38 s

基礎被動語態

Donald Trump is often called a transactional president, and this week that apt description led to success.

唐納·川普常被稱為「交易型總統」，這週這個貼切的描述帶來了成功。

The ceasefire negotiated between Israel and Hamas was a transaction, and a complicated one at that.

以色列與哈瑪斯之間協商的停火，是一場交易，而且還很複雜。

It's worth placing all the caveats that this is only phase one, and

值得注意的是，這只是第一階段，

it may break down or get stuck if the parties renege on their commitments.

如果各方違背承諾，可能會破裂或卡住。

But the first phase is in fact a plausible pathway to ending the horrific violence in Gaza and represents a chance well worth taking.

但第一階段確實是結束加薩駭人暴力的一條可行的途徑，也代表一個值得把握的機會。

It also reveals five important realities about the Middle east today.

這也揭示了現今中東的五個重要現實。

First, Israel is in a commanding position of strength.

首先，以色列處於顯著的優勢地位。

Dan Sinner, the Republican analyst and author, noted on GPS last week that the deal was an Israeli plan, or at least an American plan that Israelis could live with.

共和黨分析師兼作者 Dan Sinner 上週在 GPS 上提到，這項協議是以色列的計畫，或者至少是個以色列能接受的美國計畫。

Well, Israel is the power on the ground and it's become more powerful in the last two years as it has defeated an array of its enemies abroad.

嗯，以色列是實際掌握權力的一方，而且在過去兩年裡，隨著擊敗一系列海外敵人，它變得更加強大。

Nothing is going to happen without its consent.

沒有以色列的同意，什麼都不會發生。

As a practical matter, if you want Israel's guns to stop firing, you need a plan that Israel can live with.

實際上，如果你希望以色列停止開火，你需要一個以色列能夠接受的計畫。

Indeed, Israel's rise has been so dramatic that both Qatar and Saudi Arabia have begun warily to balance against that strength.

的確，以色列的崛起是如此戲劇性，以至於卡達和沙烏地阿拉伯都開始謹慎地制衡這種力量。

Doha seeking military guarantees from Washington and Riyadh signing a mutual defense pact with Pakistan, a nuclear armed nation.

多哈尋求華盛頓的軍事保證，利雅德則與擁有核武的巴基斯坦簽署了互助防禦條約。

Second, you can get concessions from Israel, but it takes political capital and skill.

第二，你可以從以色列那裡獲得讓步，但這需要政治資本和技巧。

President Trump used both intelligently in getting Benjamin Netanyahu to accept the deal.

川普總統明智地運用了這兩者，讓班傑明·納坦雅胡接受了這項協議。

Trump has huge political capital with Israelis and he used it to pressure Netanyahu.

川普在以色列人中擁有巨大的政治資本，並利用它來向納坦雅胡施壓。

He seized the moment when Israel's attack on Hamas operatives in Doha produced lots of blowback in the region and he took Hamas partial acceptance of the plan and pretended it was a full embrace, even though the Israelis had begun to balk, forcing the deal to a close.

他抓住了以色列攻擊多哈哈瑪斯行動人員引發該地區強烈反彈的時機，並將哈瑪斯對計畫的部分接受偽裝成完全接受，儘管以色列人已經開始猶豫，迫使協議達成。

Third, you see in the negotiations the reality of the new Middle East.

第三，你在協商中看到了新中東的現實。

Look at who was in the negotiating room for the deal.

看看誰參與了這項協議的協商。

Egyptians, Turks, Israelis, Qataris and Americans along with Hamas.

埃及人、土耳其人、以色列人、卡達人、美國人以及哈瑪斯。

The Egyptians are important only in this particular context because of their border with Gaza and the Rafah crossing, which is a key corridor for flooding aid into Gaza.

埃及人在這個特定情境下之所以重要，是因為他們與加薩接壤，而且拉法口岸是援助物資進入加薩的關鍵通道。

They represent in some ways the old Middle Eastern order, dominated by the large, populous and culturally rich countries like Egypt, Syria and Iraq.

他們在某種程度上代表了舊中東秩序，由埃及、敘利亞和伊拉克等人口眾多、文化豐富的大國主導。

The new Middle east is dominated by Israel and the Gulf states.

新中東則由以色列和海灣國家主導。

Nowhere is that more evident than in the rise of Qatar, a tiny gas rich kingdom with just around 400,000 citizens but a shrewd leadership that is willing to talk to all parties, including Iran and Hamas, which makes them indispensable in any conflict.

這點在卡達的崛起上最為明顯，這個由大約四十萬公民組成、面積微小的富裕天然氣王國，擁有精明的領導層，願意與包括伊朗和哈瑪斯在內的所有各方對話，這讓他們在任何衝突中都不可或缺。

Mediation, where the old Middle east was led by the large states that espoused pan Arabism and and encourage Palestinian terrorism, the Gulf Kingdom's search for modernity, technological advancement and above all, peace and stability.

調解方面，舊中東由倡導泛阿拉伯主義並鼓勵巴勒斯坦恐怖主義的大國領導，而海灣王國則追求現代化、技術進步，最重要的是和平與穩定。

Turkey is the new wild card, strong but ruled by a willful leader who has flirted with Islamic radicalism.

土耳其是新的變數，雖然強大，但由一位意志堅定、曾與伊斯蘭激進主義眉來眼去的領導人統治。

Fourth, the new Middle east is one where the Iranian threat has weakened considerably.

第四，新中東的伊朗威脅已大大減弱。

Ever since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, the Arab states have worried about an expansionist, ideologically aggressive Iran.

自1979年伊斯蘭革命以來，阿拉伯國家一直擔心伊朗的擴張主義和意識形態上的侵略性。

But over the last 15 years or so, Iran has been in economic misery and periodically convulsed by political crises, from a green movement to widespread protests, from the women's movement to divisions within its ruling elite.

但在過去約15年裡，伊朗經濟陷入困境，並週期性地被政治危機所困擾，從綠色運動到廣泛的抗議，從婦女運動到統治精英內部的分裂。

Through all of this, Iran faced a series of devastating Israeli attacks on its nuclear scientists, military leaders and nuclear facilities, culminating in the attacks in June, which was so comprehensive as to be almost akin to an invasion.

在這一切過程中，伊朗面臨以色列一連串毀滅性的攻擊，目標鎖定其核子科學家、軍事領袖和核設施，其中六月的攻擊規模之大，幾乎可比擬一場入侵。

Finally, despite all the violence, extremism and animosity, there is really no long term plan that doesn't end with some kind of a two state solution.

最後，儘管充滿暴力、極端主義和敵意，實際上沒有任何長期計畫能不以某種形式的「兩國方案」告終。

The veteran American diplomat Martin Indyk, who was passionately pro Israel and also in favor of a Palestinian state, wrote an essay in Foreign affairs last year, a few months before his tragic death, titled the Strange Resurrection of the Two State Solution.

資深美國外交官 Martin Indyk，他熱切支持以色列，同時也贊成巴勒斯坦建國，他在去年、也就是他不幸離世前幾個月，於《外交事務》雜誌上發表了一篇文章，標題是「兩國方案的奇異復活」。

He argued in it that decades of abandonment of that objective have only proven that there is no alternative.

他在文中論述，數十年來對此目標的忽視，只證明瞭沒有其他替代方案。

Every other alternative, continued occupation, one state expulsion doesn't really work, so people will eventually, reluctantly come back to it.

其他所有替代方案，像是持續佔領、單一國家驅逐，都行不通，所以人們最終會不情願地回到這個選項。

But that will only happen now if President Trump comes to it himself and invests it with his power and energy.

但這只有在川普總統親自推動，並投入他的權力和精力時才可能實現。

His plan makes a small reference to it, but

他的計畫中對此有簡短提及，但

in announcing the ceasefire, he hoped not just for a ceasefire, but for everlasting peace.

在宣佈停火時，他期盼的不僅是停火，而是永恆的和平。

That would require more than a transaction.

The fruits of that vision, genuine and lasting peace, would echo through history and would constitute a prize much larger even than the one awarded by the Nobel Committee every October.

這份遠見所結出的果實，也就是真正且持久的和平，將會名垂青史，其價值甚至遠比諾貝爾委員會每年十月頒發的獎項來得更加豐厚。