Name: 美國攻擊委內瑞拉對油價有何影響？ | DW 新聞 (What does the US attack on Venezuela mean for oil prices? | DW News)
Uploaded: 2026-01-06T17:04:46.000Z
Duration: 9 min 19 s

程度副詞

The insecurity that's being created by this is quite high.

這造成的這種不確定性非常高。

轉承詞

Even the American oil companies that have seen their share price increase today because of expectations of them re entering Venezuela, this will take some time.

即使是美國的石油公司，由於預期他們將重新進入委內瑞拉，今天的股價有所上漲，但這需要一些時間。

They'll be reluctant to jump into Venezuela right now.

An attack on one of the world's most oil rich countries.

攻擊世界上一個石油豐富的國家。

What could it mean for oil supply and what kind of signal could it send to the rest of the world?

這對石油供應意味著什麼，又會向世界其他地方發出什麼樣的信號？

Henning Gloucestein is an analyst with Eurasia Group in London and he joins me now for more.

Henning Gloucestein 是 Eurasia Group 在倫敦的分析師，他現在加入我們，提供更多資訊。

We've seen that oil markets have been a little jumpy since this attack.

我們看到，自從這次攻擊以來，石油市場一直有點波動。

Do you believe that traders have settled on an interpretation for what this event really means for global oil?

您認為交易員們已經確定了對這次事件對全球石油真正意義的詮釋嗎？

So, I mean, I wouldn't say they've settled, no.

所以，我的意思是，我不會說他們已經確定了，沒有。

I mean it's, it's a very, it's a, it's an environment that's quite difficult to understand because, you know, the events that happened over the last couple of days have been so sudden.

我的意思是，這是一個非常、非常難以理解的環境，因為，你知道，過去幾天發生的事件實在是太突然了。

However, there are a few things to keep in mind.

So globally, oil markets are oversupplied at the moment.

所以，在全球範圍內，石油市場目前供應過剩。

So that means that there's more oil being pumped into the market than is being consumed.

這意味著進入市場的石油比消耗的要多。

And that hasn't changed with the situation in Venezuela.

而委內瑞拉的情況並沒有改變這一點。

Now Venezuela does have the biggest oil reserves in the world, but

現在委內瑞拉擁有世界上最大的石油儲備，但

they're not actually a great exporter at this stage.

在這個階段，它們並不是一個很好的出口國。

And virtually all of its exports have in the past been going to China.

而且，過去幾乎所有的出口都流向了中國。

So it's almost like a single market being affected by this.

所以，這幾乎就像一個單一市場受到了影響。

Also, we have seen since this morning that some Venezuelan tankers have actually left Venezuela.

而且，我們從今天早上就看到，有些委內瑞拉的油輪已經離開了委內瑞拉。

So the US embargo doesn't seem to be fully enforced at this stage.

所以美國的禁令在這個階段似乎並沒有完全執行。

And then lastly, probably it will take some time for American companies or other international companies to fully re engage in Venezuela.

最後，美國公司或其他國際公司要完全重新進入委內瑞拉，可能還需要一些時間。

So the short term impact to global markets is quite low.

是以，對全球市場的短期影響相當小。

However, the insecurity that's being created by this is quite high.

然而，由此產生的不確定性卻相當高。

And that's why I wouldn't say markets have settled, but they're far from being in panic.

這就是為什麼我不會說市場已經穩定下來，但離恐慌還差得很遠。

I want to touch on that insecurity in just a moment.

我認為這是一個非常有趣的點。

First, I want to ask most viewers would look at this and say Venezuela sits on this incredible wealth of oil.

首先，我想問大多數觀眾看到這個情況，會說委內瑞拉擁有驚人的石油財富。

Surely if that's the reason for this attack in the first place and there's going to be a lot more oil entering the global market, how can it be that we're not going to see a much greater effect and that that couldn't depress prices further?

當然，如果這就是最初受到攻擊的原因，而且將會有更多的石油進入全球市場，為什麼我們不會看到更大的影響，而且這不會進一步壓低價格呢？

For example, if there's already oversupply.

So we do actually think the prices because of the events will go down in the short term because what will probably happen is that the, the, the U.S.

所以我們確實認為，因為這些事件，價格短期內會下跌，因為可能會發生的是，美國

embargo that was in place up until the U.S.

禁令，這在過去幾天美國介入之前一直存在，現在已經被解除。

intervention over the last couple of days is already being lifted.

所以會有比過去幾週更多的委內瑞拉石油進入市場，但是

So more Venezuelan oil will be hitting the market than has been over the last couple of weeks, but

也不會多很多，因為要提高委內瑞拉的產量，然後是出口，這需要大量的投資。

it won't be a lot more because to raise Venezuela's production and then its exports will, will require a lot of investment.

即使是美國石油公司，今天因為預期他們會重新進入委內瑞拉，這需要一些時間。

And even the American oil companies that have seen their today, because of expectations of them reentering Venezuela, this will take some time.

他們會，他們會不願投入委內瑞拉。

They'll be, they'll be reluctant to jump into Venezuela.

現在，甚至還不清楚誰領導這個國家，是會由美國來管理，就像川普說的，還是會建立一個臨時政府。

Right now, it's not even clear who leads the country, whether it's going to be, you know, run by the United States, as Donald Trump has been saying, or whether some interim government is being put in place.

這就是，這就是還不太清楚會發生什麼。

This is what's, what's not really clear what will happen.

這就是還不太清楚會發生什麼。

So that's why we think in the, in the short term, the impact on markets will be relatively muted because not that much will change.

所以，這就是為什麼我們認為短期內，對市場的影響會相對緩和，因為不會有太多改變。

What is it that's preventing more oil from coming into the system?

是什麼阻止了更多的石油進入這個系統？

In other words, we hear that Venezuela has so much and yet that it takes so much money or so much time, so much investment to get it going again, as you've said as well.

換句話說，我們聽說委內瑞拉有這麼多石油，但卻需要這麼多錢或這麼長時間、這麼多投資才能讓它重新啟動，就像你說的一樣。

Venezuela's oil industry has been very poorly invested.

委內瑞拉的石油產業一直投資不足。

So it's been struggling with underinvestment of the last few years because of Venezuela's relative isolation, in particular with regards to the United States.

所以，由於委內瑞拉相對孤立，特別是與美國之間的關係，過去幾年一直面臨著投資不足的問題。

And that will take some time to resolve before American or any international money comes back into Venezuela.

這需要一些時間來解決，美國或其他國際資金才能重新進入委內瑞拉。

It'll be a matter of months, probably even years.

這將是幾個月，甚至可能幾年的問題。

Do we have any idea who is most likely to benefit at this point?

我們有任何跡象表明誰最有可能在此時受益嗎？

I know this is a very early stage, but should Venezuela begin to produce more oil?

我知道這還處於非常早期階段，但委內瑞拉應該開始生產更多石油嗎？

This has been a long standing debate who gets that money.

這是一個長久以來的爭論，關於誰能獲得那些資金。

It will mostly go to American companies that become involved again with US Government support.

大部分會流向重新參與並獲得美國政府支持的美國公司。

And if things go a little bit better than, than hope for, especially critics will hope that money will hopefully remain in Venezuela as well.

如果情況比預期稍微好一些，特別是批評者會希望這些資金也能留在委內瑞拉。

But my expectation is that most of the oil revenues, the future oil revenues have raised output and exports will go to U.S.

但我預期，大部分的石油收入，未來因產量和出口增加而產生的石油收入，將會流向美國。

companies, and most of the oil will go to the United States as well.

公司，而大部分石油也會運往美國。

Henning, you touched on this just a moment ago, but

Henning，你剛才提到了這一點，但是

perhaps oil prices could be driven just as much, if not more from the geopolitical consequences of these strikes.

或許油價的波動，即使不是更多，也可能受到這些罷工的地緣政治後果的影響。

Could you explain that a little bit more?

I mean, One of the insecurities that markets are taking away from this is that Venezuela, although it's not a large export and produce at this stage, it is another oil producer that is being impacted by geopolitics.

我的意思是，市場從中獲得的不確定性之一是，委內瑞拉雖然在這個階段出口和產量不大，但它是另一個受到地緣政治影響的石油生產國。

還有許多其他國家也已經受到影響。

Iran is affected by sanctions and by the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East.

伊朗受到制裁以及中東地緣政治危機的影響。

Russia, of course, is under sanctions as well because of its invasion of Ukraine.

俄羅斯當然也因為入侵烏克蘭而受到制裁。

So oil markets, although they're well supplied, are, are increasingly prone to risk from geopolitical disruption and activity that is very hard for traders and the markets to anticipate.

所以，儘管石油市場供應充足，但越來越容易受到地緣政治幹擾和交易員及市場難以預測的活動的風險影響。

We've seen a lot of focus in particular on Iran, obviously a favorite target of the Trump administration.

我們看到特別關注伊朗，顯然是川普政府的重點目標。

How significant would any sort of disruption to that oil production be as opposed to Venezuela?

與委內瑞拉相比，對該石油生產的任何干擾會有多少影響？

Well, we saw in mid-2025 when the, the military escalation between Israel and Iran and the United States and Iran reached new highs.

嗯，我們在 2025 年年中看到，以色列與伊朗以及美國與伊朗之間的軍事升級達到了新高點。

Oil prices were around $80 per barrel at that time.

It's less about Iran's oil production, exports, capabilities, but

這比較不是關於伊朗的石油產量、出口、能力，

more about the risk to the Strait of Hormuz, through which also Saudi Arabia's and Emirati and Kuwaiti oil is exported and which meets most of the demand in Asia Pacific.

而是關於荷姆茲海峽的風險，沙烏地阿拉伯、阿聯酋和科威特的石油也是透過那裡出口，而且那裡滿足了亞太地區的大部分需求。

So that's the main worry in the Middle east.

And that could flare up at any point in time because we do actually think Iran remains a hotspot for geopolitical risk with regards to its own activities, but

而且這隨時都可能爆發，因為我們確實認為伊朗仍然是地緣政治風險的熱點，這與它自身的活動有關，但

or how Israel and the United States act in the region.

也與以色列和美國在該地區的行動有關。

How long do we expect this kind of oversupply phase to last?

我們預計這種供應過剩的階段會持續多久？

I mean, where are we seeing oil in the long term?

我的意思是，從長遠來看，我們看到石油在哪裡？

Not that long ago, I remember it was said that peak demand perhaps had been reached around 2021, 22.

沒過多久，我記得有人說，石油需求的巔峰可能在 2021、22 年就達到了。

Now it seems like the calculus has changed.

現在看來，計算方式已經改變了。

Well, so demand isn't growing very fast in oil markets.

嗯，所以石油市場的需求成長並不是非常快。

It is growing slightly and it's at record high.

它正在小幅成長，而且處於歷史新高。

So that's important to keep in mind, but it's not growing fast.

所以這點很重要，但成長速度並不快。

That's because of China's electrif electrification going ahead at a breakneck speed.

這是因為中國的電動化正以驚人的速度推進。

So on the consumption side, there's not much new demand coming.

所以在消費端，沒有多少新的需求進來。

However, on the supply side, OPEC has raised output.

不過，在供應端，OPEC 已經提高了產量。

Other producers like Guyana and Brazil are raising output.

其他生產國，像是蓋亞那和巴西，也在提高產量。

So this is the reason for the oversupply as to how long it'll last, we reckon until 2027 or so, because what will definitely happen if prices go down much further with relation to where they are now.

這就是供應過剩的原因，至於會持續多久，我們估計會到 2027 年左右，因為如果價格比現在再下跌很多的話，肯定會發生一些事。

So if we see Brent Prices in the middle mid low 50s, investment into production will start to slow down, and

所以，如果我們看到布蘭特原油價格在中低 50 美元區間，生產投資就會開始放緩，

that will then bring output down below demand again, because, like you say, we haven't seen peak demand.

這樣就會讓產量再次低於需求，因為就像你說的，我們還沒看到需求達到高峰。

But if investment in production slows, then at some point, that should bring prices back up again again.

但如果生產投資放緩，那麼在某個時候，這應該會讓價格再次回升。

For those of us who may be looking at this not know a whole lot about how global oil markets work, if the Trump administration wants to increase all of this production in Venezuela, where is it going to go then?

對於我們這些可能不太瞭解全球石油市場運作的人來說，如果川普政府想增加委內瑞拉的所有產量，那這些產量會去哪裡呢？

Is it just about getting it into the US Domestic market?

Is it more these businesses, these American businesses, benefiting them?

這更多是為了讓這些企業、這些美國企業受益嗎？

What's the strategic or tactical sense in doing this?

這樣做的策略或戰術意義是什麼？

That's actually a very good point to make because over the last few years, almost all of Venezuela's crude oil has been going to China.

這其實是個很好的觀點，因為過去幾年，委內瑞拉幾乎所有的原油都銷往中國。

Historically, however, most of Venezuela's crude oil went across the Gulf and into the US Industry because the US refineries along the Gulf coast are geared towards processing what's called heavy crude oil, which Venezuela produces mostly.

然而，歷史上，委內瑞拉大部分的原油都通過墨西哥灣進入美國工業，因為美國墨西哥灣沿岸的煉油廠專門處理委內瑞拉主要生產的所謂重質原油。

So historically, this is where most of the oil has been going, and

所以，歷史上，這就是大部分石油的去向，

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美國攻擊委內瑞拉對油價有何影響？ | DW 新聞 (What does the US attack on Venezuela mean for oil prices? | DW News)

process

access

panic

term