some achieve greatness,

「有些人成就偉大」

and others have greatness thrust upon them", quoth William Shakespeare.

「還有些人則被迫偉大」 莎士比亞如是說

Or did he?

他真的說過嗎？

Some people question whether Shakespeare really wrote the works that bear his name,

有些人質疑莎士比亞是否 真的寫了聲稱他所著的劇本

or whether he even existed at all.

以及是否真有其人

They speculate that Shakespeare was a pseudonym for another writer,

他們懷疑莎士比亞 是另一位作家的筆名

or a group of writers.

或是一群作家的筆名

Proposed candidates for the real Shakespeare

他們提出莎士比亞的本尊候選人

include other famous playwrights, politicians and even some prominent women.

應為其他知名劇作家、政治家 甚至是某些地位顯赫的女性

Could it be true that the greatest writer in the English language

難道這位英語系最偉大的作家

was as fictional as his plays?

就像他的作品一樣是虛構的？

Most Shakespeare scholars dismiss these theories

大部分的莎士比亞學者

based on historical and biographical evidence.

基於歷史及傳記等證據 都對這些說法嗤之以鼻

But there is another way to test whether Shakespeare's famous lines

但是還有另外一種方法 能驗證莎士比亞的名句

were actually written by someone else.

是否真的出自他人之手

Linguistics, the study of language,

研究語言的語言學家

can tell us a great deal about the way we speak and write

可以從檢視語法、文法、語義及字彙 看出我們說話及寫作的習慣

by examining syntax, grammar, semantics and vocabulary.

十九世紀晚期

And in the late 1800s,

波蘭哲學家 文森提·魯托斯拉夫斯基

a Polish philosopher named Wincenty Lutosławski

正式提出一種稱為 統計文體學的方法

formalized a method known as stylometry,

以此來調查作者認定的爭議

applying this knowledge to investigate questions of literary authorship.

所以統計文體學怎麼用呢？

So how does stylometry work?

基本概念就是每一位作家的 寫作風格都具某些特性

The idea is that each writer's style has certain characteristics

這些特性在個別作品中也相當一致

that remain fairly uniform among individual works.

特性的例子包括平均句長

Examples of characteristics include average sentence length,

遣詞用字

the arrangement of words,

甚至某個字出現的次數都是

and even the number of occurrences of a particular word.

我們來看「汝」這個字 把它看成一維或一軸

Let's look at use of the word thee and visualize it as a dimension, or axis.

把每部莎士比亞的作品 都放在該軸上

Each of Shakespeare's works can be placed on that axis,

就像數據點一樣 根據那個字出現的次數來放

like a data point, based on the number of occurrences of that word.

在統計學上 這些點的密集度

In statistics, the tightness of these points

提供我們所謂的變異數 即我們預期的數據範圍

gives us what is known as the variance, an expected range for our data.

但是，這只是在非常 高維空間內的一種特性

But, this is only a single characteristic in a very high-dimensional space.

藉由稱為主成分分析的叢聚工具

With a clustering tool called Principal Component Analysis,

我們能減化多維空間成簡單的主成分

we can reduce the multidimensional space into simple principal components

集體量測莎士比亞作品中的變異數

that collectively measure the variance in Shakespeare's works.

然後我們能以此測試候選人的作品

We can then test the works of our candidates

看他們的主成分是否相符

against those principal components.

舉例來說

For example,

如果法蘭西斯·培根有足夠多的作品 落在莎士比亞的變異數中

if enough works of Francis Bacon fall within the Shakespearean variance,

那可能就是蠻強的證據

that would be pretty strong evidence

證明法蘭西斯·培根 與莎士比亞其實是同一人

that Francis Bacon and Shakespeare are actually the same person.

那麼測試的結果是什麼？

What did the results show?

嗯，進行此試驗的文體學家 做出的結論是

Well, the stylometrists who carried this out have concluded

莎士比亞就是莎士比亞

that Shakespeare is none other than Shakespeare.

此吟遊詩人非彼吟遊詩人是也！

The Bard is the Bard.

冒牌貨的作品跟莎士比亞的 特殊風格就是不符

The pretender's works just don't match up with Shakespeare's signature style.

然而，我們大無畏的 統計學家的確發現

However, our intrepid statisticians did find

一些令人信服的合作證據

some compelling evidence of collaborations.

舉個例，最近一項研究推斷

For instance, one recent study concluded

莎士比亞與劇作家克里斯多福·馬羅 合作寫出亨利六世

that Shakespeare worked with playwright Christopher Marlowe on "Henry VI,"

第一及第二部

parts one and two.

莎士比亞的身分只是 文體學家能解決的許多問題之一

Shakespeare's identity is only one of the many problems stylometry can resolve.

這門學問還能幫我們 判定作品的寫作時代

It can help us determine when a work was written,

古代文本是否為贗品

whether an ancient text is a forgery,

學生是否抄襲

whether a student has committed plagiarism,

或你收到的電郵 是最速件還是垃圾信

or if that email you just received is of a high priority or spam.

難道這代表著莎士比亞 臺詞中的經典詩句

And does the timeless poetry of Shakespeare's lines

能簡化成數字與統計？

just boil down to numbers and statistics?

非也

Not quite.

文體分析也許能透露出莎士比亞 作品在結構上的不同之處

Stylometric analysis may reveal what makes Shakespeare's works structurally distinct,

但是它不能捕捉字裡行間 所表達的情感與情緒之美

but it cannot capture the beauty of the sentiments and emotions they express,

或為什麼這些作品能感動我們

or why they affect us the way they do.

至少目前還不能

At least, not yet.