As you may remember from our first video,

如果你對我們的第一支影片還有印象

economics can be divided into two parts: microeconomics and macroeconomics.

應該知道經濟學分為兩部分：個體經濟學和總體經濟學

Since macroeconomics is the one that's most often in the news,

因為總體經濟學比較常出現在報章雜誌裡

that's where we're gonna start.

所以我們就從總體經濟學出發

We'll get to microeconomics, which is also super important in future episodes.

我們之後也會討論個體經濟學，因為它相當重要

But what is macroeconomics again?

那什麼是總體經濟學呢？

It's the study of economic aggregates revealed through national

這是一門研究總體經濟的學問，透過

income accounting, which is then...

國民收入會計，意思是...

Okay okay, when you define it like that,

好了好了，你這樣解釋會讓

macroeconomic sounds boring

總體經濟學聽起來很無聊

but it is not boring!

但其實它一點也不無聊 !

It is exciting!

它很有趣 ！

Macro is about booms and busts,

總經是關於繁榮及蕭條

will you get a job when you graduate,

你畢業後能找到工作嗎

should the government cut taxes.

政府應不應該課稅

In theory, lowering marginal tax rates would actually increase the...

理論上，降低邊際稅率其實會增加

No no no!

停停停！

Remember, the goal of learning economics is to become a better decision maker,

記得喔，學習經濟學的目標是成為更好的決策者

and part of that is learning how the whole economy works.

其中一部分就是要了解整體經濟的運作模式

So let's learn about the whole economy.

那麼現在就開始學習整體經濟吧！

So, macroeconomics is the study of the entire economy.

總體經濟學是一門研究整體經濟的學問

Macroeconomists tell you the big stuff,

總體經濟學家會告訴你宏觀的事情

like economic output, unemployment, inflation, interest rates, and government policies.

例如經濟產出、失業率、通貨膨脹、利率、和政府決策

Now when it comes to fields of study, macroeconomics is a relatively new subject.

相較其他領域而言，總體經濟學其實是一門較新的研究領域

It wasn't until the Great Depression in the 1930's

一直到1930年代的經濟大蕭條

that economists fully appreciated the need for a systematic way to measure the overall economy,

經濟學家才體認到我們需要一套有系統的方法來測量整體經濟

and that we might need theories to guide policies and fix potential problems.

也需要能引領政策及解決潛在問題的理論

A hundred years ago, there was no comprehensive data on economic activity,

一百年前，那時對於經濟活動還沒有詳盡的數據

so there was no macroeconomics.

也因此當時並沒有總體經濟學

Today, economic data is plentiful,

現在我們有豐富的經濟數據

but that doesn't mean that economists agree about where the economy is,

但這並不表示經濟學家們都對問題想法一致，像是經濟狀況如何

where it's going, or what should be done to help.

未來經濟如何、應該有什麼因應對策

Macroeconomists make predictions based on data,

總體經濟學家所做的預測是根據數據、

theoretical models and historical trends, but in the end, they're just predictions.

理論模型和歷史趨勢，不過畢竟也只是預測

If you ask three economists the same question, you're likely to get three different answers,

如果問三位不同的經濟學家同一個問題，你很有可能得到三種不同的回答

but how, you ask, can the dismal "science" be so subjective?

你會問這門鬱悶的「科學」怎麼如此主觀？

Well, economics is not a traditional science

經濟學與一般的科學不同

because it is nearly impossible to control all the different variables.

因為我們不太可能控制所有的變因

Like all the social sciences, economics is studying people,

就跟所有的社會科學一樣，經濟學是一門研究人的學問

and it turns out that sometimes people are unpredictable.

而事實上人是無法預測的

I challenge all of you to a tournament of champions in Flappy Bird!

你們所有人來跟我比一場 Flappy Bird 吧 !

Who saw that coming?

誰能料到這情況發生？

That doesn't mean that economics is all guesswork.

這不代表經濟學全是些不可靠的臆測

For example, right now in early 2015, the economy of Greece is, well it's not, it's not good.

舉例來說，現在是 2015 年年初，希臘的經濟狀況...嗯...不是很好

But how can we tell,

但我們由何得知？

and is it gonna get better? Is it gonna get worse? What should be done about it?

情況會好轉嗎？還是會惡化？應該採行什麼對策呢？

These are all questions that macroeconomists try to answer,

這些都是總體經濟學家想要解決的問題

but for this video, we're gonna focus on the question "How can we tell?"

不過在接下來的影片中，我們會專注於「我們由何得知？」這問題上

Well in general, policy makers have three economic goals:

決策者普遍上有三個經濟目標：

they want to keep the economy growing over time,

他們想要維持經濟持續成長

they want to limit unemployment,

他們想要控制失業率

and they want to keep prices stable.

他們想要維持物價穩定

Now for the most part when these three things happen,

在多數情況下，這三件事情同時達成的時候

the citizens are happy, politicians get reelected, and economists get raises.

老百姓會開心，政府官員能夠續任，經濟學家得到加薪

There are three specific measurements that economists analyze to see if a country is achieving each goal.

經濟學家分析三種特定的指標來檢視國家是否達到每項目標

They're the Gross Domestic Product, unemployment rate, and the inflation rate.

分別是國內生產總值 (GDP)、失業率、和通貨膨脹率

The most important measure of an economy is Gross Domestic Product or GDP.

其中最重要的經濟指標就是國內生產總值，簡稱 GDP

GDP is the value of all final goods and services produced within a country's border

GDP 是指一國境內生產的所有最終產品和服務的價值

in a specific period of time, usually a year.

在一段特定期間內，通常是一年

Now there are some details worth mentioning.

有一些值得注意的細節

GDP doesn't include every transaction that's in the economy.

GDP 並不能反映出所有的交易活動

For example, if you buy a used domestic car,

舉例來說，假如你買了一輛國產的二手車

it doesn't count towards GDP because nothing new was produced.

這筆交易並不會計入 GDP 中，因為二手車不是新生產出來的

Now that same logic applies to buying financial assets like stocks,

相同的邏輯也能套用於金融資產上，例如股票

or when one company buys another company, for example when Google bought YouTube.

或是企業併購，例如 Google 買下 YouTube

Those don't count towards GDP because no new good or service was produced.

這些都不能計入 GDP 內，因為沒有生產出新的產品或服務

Also, GDP often doesn't include illegal activity,

另外，GDP 通常也不包含非法交易

since drug dealers don't usually report their sales to the government,

因為通常毒販並不會向政府報告他們的銷售情形

or non-traditional economic activity like household production.

以及未透過市場交易的生產活動，例如家戶生產

For example, if a charges someone $100 to fix their hot water heater,

例如，水管工人向他人收取 100 元作為修理熱水器的工錢

that counts towards GDP.

這會計入 GDP 中

When he fixes his own water heater, that doesn't count towards GDP.

而當他修理自家的熱水器時，則不計入 GDP 中

Here's a list of countries organized by GDP.

這些國家以 GDP 大小排序

Notice that GDP is measured in dollars, not in the raw number of things produced.

特別注意，GDP 是以錢做為衡量單位，而非產品的個數

If we analyzed just the raw number,

要是我們只計算產品個數

then a country that produced five million thumbtacks

那麼一個生產五百萬個圖釘的國家

would look like they're doing just as well as a country that produced five million cars,

就會與另一個生產五百萬輛汽車的國家有著相同的生產力

but there's also a problem with using the dollar value of stuff produced: it's inflation.

但使用金錢作為衡量價值又會引發另一個問題：通貨膨脹

If two countries produce the same amount of cars, but one has higher prices,

假設有兩個國家生產相同數量的車子，但其中一國價格較高

then that country's going to have a higher nominal GDP, or GDP not adjusted for inflation.

那麼這個國家就會有較高的名目 GDP，也就是未經通膨調整的 GDP

To get a more accurate idea of the health of the economy,

為了更精確的判斷一個經濟體的好壞

economists look at Real GDP, which is GDP adjusted for inflation.

經濟學家檢查的是實質 GDP，也就是經過通膨調整後的 GDP

Just what "adjusted for inflation" means is really important,

「經過通膨調整」是一個很重要觀念

but too big of a topic to discuss right now. We'll get to it.

不過現在還沒辦法解釋，我們之後再來討論

So what does the Real GDP in Greece tell us about its economy?

所以希臘的實質 GDP 是如何反映他的經濟呢？

In 2013, the Greek Real GDP was around 242 billion dollars,

在 2013 年，希臘的實質 GDP 大約是 2420 億美元

but that number doesn't really mean anything until you compare it to previous years.

但其實這個數字本身不具任何意義，除非你將它拿來與前幾年做比較

In 2012, it was 250 billion dollars, in 2011, it was 288 billion,

2012 年，實質GDP 為 2500 億美元，2011 年為 2880 億美元

and in 2010 it was 300 billion.

2010 年為 3000 億美元

In fact, starting in 2008, Greece has had six years of decreasing GDP,

實際上，從 2008 年開始的六年間，希臘的實質 GDP 逐年遞減

and the data reveals that this recession

這些數據顯示出這次的經濟衰退

is just as deep and prolonged as the Great Depression in the United States in the 1930's.

就和美國在 1930 年代發生的大蕭條一樣嚴重且持久

Now, I just used the term recession, which a lot of people use incorrectly.

我現在用了經濟衰退這個詞，但其實很多人會錯用這個詞

A recession is not just when the economy's bad,

經濟衰退不單只表示景氣差

officially it's when two successive quarters or six months show a decrease in Real GDP.

確切來說是指實質 GDP 連續兩季也就是為期六個月都是負成長

Even though the economy in Greece is still struggling,

儘管現在希臘的經濟仍然吃緊

it climbed out of its recession in 2014, experiencing a slight increase in GDP.

在 2014 年時，希臘從衰退期爬升，它的GDP有些微的成長

A depression, on the other hand, doesn't have a technical definition,

另一方面，蕭條並沒有特定的定義

but it's a severe recession, when the economy's really really bad.

是指經濟衰退非常嚴重，也就是經濟極差的時候

It's worth noting though that GDP can be a little problematic.

值得注意的是 GDP 也有些小問題

I mean not all countries measure GDP in the same way,

並非所有國家計算 GDP 的方式都相同

and in recent years some European Union countries

近幾年，有些歐盟國

have started experimenting with counting underground markets,

開始嘗試計算地下經濟

like the sex trade and drug trade as part of the total.

例如性交易和毒品交易

In fact, GDP isn't even that old an idea.

事實上，GDP 並不是個過時的觀念

According to Robert Froyen, during the Great Depression,

據羅伯特．弗羅伊所說，在經濟大蕭條期間

economic decisions were made "on the basis of such sketchy data as stock price indices,

經濟決策是「根據一些粗略的數據，例如股市價格指數

freight car loadings, and incomplete indices of industrial production.

貨運車的裝載量，以及不完整的生產指數

The fact was that comprehensive measures of national income and output did not exist at the time.

事實上，詳盡的國民所得及產出測量在當時並不存在

The depression, and with it the growing role of government in the economy,

經濟的蕭條，以及政府在經濟體中日漸重要的角色

emphasized the need for such measures

讓這類計量的需求受到重視

and led to the development of a comprehensive set of national income accounts."

導致全面性的國民所得會計帳的發展」

So GDP was invented to account for national income,

所以 GDP 的發明是為了計算國民所得

and it may not necessarily provide a complete picture of a country's economy,

因此它可能不會是一個國家經濟體完整的面貌

but for the moment it's what we've got.

但目前這就是我們所能得知的

So that's economic growth, or at least one way to look at economic growth.

這就是經濟成長，或至少是一個能觀察經濟成長的方式

Now, for the next big issue for macroeconomists: unemployment.

現在來談談總體經濟學家的下一個重要議題：失業

Anyway, the major goal of unemployment policy is to limit unemployment,

失業政策主要的目標是要降低失業

and that's measured by - you guessed it - the unemployment rate.

衡量標準就是，沒錯，失業率

In Greece, unemployment is over 25%.

希臘的失業率超過 25%

The unemployment rate is calculated

失業率的計算方式是

by taking the number of people that are unemployed and dividing by the number of people in the labor force, times 100.

失業人口數除以勞動力總人口，乘以 100

Now this percentage represents

這個比例代表的意義是

the number of people that are actively looking for a job but just can't find one.

有在積極找工作卻找不到工作者的數量

First, the labor force only includes

首先，勞動力只包括

people that are of legal working age and working or actively looking for work,

已滿法定工作年齡以及有積極找工作的人

so little kids don't count

所以小孩並不算在內

and neither do people who aren't able to work or who just choose not to work.

還有欠缺工作能力以及沒有意願工作的人都不算在內

So what about someone who's been looking for a job but just gives up?

那麼對於那些曾找過工作但後來放棄了的人呢？

Well, they're no longer part of the labor force, and they're no longer considered unemployed.

當然，他們就不能再算入勞動力中，所以也不能再算是失業者

These are called discouraged workers.

這些人被稱為沮喪勞工

The unemployment rate also doesn't take into account people that are underemployed.

另外，失業率也不能包括就業不足人口

A worker with a five hour a week part time job is considered fully employed

一個每週工時５小時的臨時工也會被視為全職工作者

even if they're looking for a better job.

就算他們仍在尋找一份更好的工作

In both of these cases,

這兩種情況下

the official unemployment rate underestimates the problems in the labor market.

都會使官方統計出的失業率低估了勞力市場的問題

A common misconception is that the goal is to have 0% unemployment,

很多人都誤以為達到零失業率是最理想的目標

but it turns out there's types of unemployment that'll exist even when the economy's going strong.

但事實上，儘管經濟再好，有些失業類型仍然會存在

Economists would point out that there's three types of unemployment,

經濟學家指出了三種失業類型

or three reasons why people would be unemployed.

也可以說是三種人們可能會面臨失業的原因

First is frictional unemployment.

首先是摩擦性失業

This is when people are temporarily unemployed or between jobs.

是指人們暫時性失業或是轉換工作中

So if you quit your job and look for a new one, or if you're just entering the labor force,

也就是當你剛辭職在找新工作，或是剛進入勞動市場

then you're frictionally unemployed.

就稱之為摩擦性失業

The second is called structural unemployment.

其次是結構性失業

Workers are out of work because there's no demand for that specific type of labor.

是指因社會對某種類型的工作無需求所造成的失業

This would be like a VCR repair person,

就像是修理錄影機的工人

but it also includes technological unemployment, where workers are replaced by machines.

此外，也包括科技性失業，也就是勞工被機器所取代

Now both frictional and structural unemployment will always exist;

摩擦性失業及結構性失業兩者皆不會消失

the goal is not to have 0% unemployment.

因此目標不會是要達到 0% 失業率

I mean, 0% is not even possible.

我是說，0% 是完全不可能的

We're always going to have people between jobs or people fired because machines do it better.

永遠都會有轉換工作的人以及被生產力更高的機器所取代的人

So the goal is to have no cyclical unemployment.

因此我們的目標是要沒有循環性失業

This is unemployment due to a recession.

這是經濟衰退所造成的失業

It's when people stop buying stuff, so businesses lay off their workers

這是當人們停止消費，造成企業裁員

and since workers have lower incomes,

也因為這些員工的收入減少

they stop buying stuff which means more people lose their jobs.

他們也停止消費，意味著更多人會面臨失業

An economy is considered to be at full employment when there's only frictional and structural unemployment.

一個經濟體中只存在摩擦性失業和結構性失業時就稱充分就業

This is called the natural rate of unemployment.

這就是自然失業率

This natural rate differs slightly between countries,

每個國家的自然失業率有些微不同

in the United States it's usually between 4 to 6 percent unemployment.

美國的自然失業率通常在 4% 到 6% 之間

Now as you might expect the GDP growth rate and the unemployment rate are inversely related.

你可能猜到 GDP 成長率與失業率呈負相關

That means that when GDP is rising, the unemployment rate is falling,

表示 GDP 上升，則失業率下降

when GDP is falling, the unemployment rate is rising.

而 GDP 下降時，失業率會上升

And that's exactly what happened in the United States during the Great Depression,

這完全就是美國在經濟大蕭條時發生的情況

in the 1930's, droughts, bank failures, and counterproductive policies caused GDP to fall,

1930 年代，乾旱、銀行倒閉、及無效的政策導致 GDP 下降

and unemployment peaked at 25 percent.

同時失業率最高飆升至 25%

Let's move on to the third economic goal: stable prices.

接著來談第三個經濟目標：穩定物價

While I might like the idea of the stuff I buy getting cheaper across the board,

雖然我可能會希望我想買的東西整體上愈來愈便宜

falling prices are not really a good thing.

但價格愈來愈低廉並不完全是件好事

Average prices in Greece have fallen about two percent recently,

最近，希臘的平均物價下降了 2% 左右

and during the 1930's, the inflation rate in the US was negative ten percent.

1930 年代，美國的通膨率為負 10%

But how can cheaper stuff be bad for the economy?

不過為什麼東西愈來愈便宜反而對經濟有害呢？

Well the goal is to keep prices stable, mainly to avoid rapid inflation,

我們的目標是維持物價穩定，主要是希望避免快速的通貨膨脹

or rising prices, but we also want to avoid excessive deflation which is falling prices.

或是快速的物價上漲，但是我們同時希望避免過度的通貨緊縮或是物價下跌

Inflation is measured by tracking the prices of a set amount of commonly purchased items,

通貨膨脹是透過追蹤一籃生活用品的物價

or what economists call a market basket.

或是經濟學家所說的市場菜籃

The inflation rate is the percent change in the price of that basket over time.

通貨膨脹是不同時間下同一籃物品的物價變動率

Too much inflation is bad because it decreases the purchasing power of money;

過度的通貨膨脹是件壞事，因為會降低貨幣購買力

it means you can buy less stuff with the same amount of money,

意味著金額不變，能買到的東西卻變少

which has all sorts of negative effects on the economy.

這會對經濟造成負面影響

Business costs increase as workers demand higher wages and interest rates increase,

工人要求更高的薪資，導致企業的成本增加，且利率上升

so it's harder to get loans, so people buy less cars and houses.

因此貸款的難度增加，造成人們少買車和房

Deflation on the other hand, seems like it would be a good thing

另一方面，通貨緊縮看似是件好事

but most economists see falling prices as a bad thing.

但大多數的經濟學家都認為物價持續下降是件壞事

Falling prices actually discourage people from spending

事實上，物價持續下降會導致人民減少消費

since they might expect prices to fall more in the future.

因為人們可能會期望未來的價格更便宜

Less spending in the economy means GDP is gonna decrease

一經濟體中的消費減少，表示 GDP 也會下降

and unemployment's gonna increase,

而失業率將會上升

and that just becomes a vicious cycle.

而這就形成了惡性循環

So severe recessions are often accompanied by deflation

因此嚴重的經濟衰退通常會伴隨著通貨緊縮

because the demand for goods and services falls,

因為人們對商品及勞務的需求減少

but when the economy starts to improve again, we often see an increase in prices.

但經濟再次好轉時，我們也常會看到物價跟著上升

Throughout history, economies have expanded and contracted.

從古至今，經濟會一直歷經擴張及收縮

It's called the business cycle.

就稱為景氣循環

Let's go to the Thought Bubble.

我們來想像一下

If we imagine the economy as a car, then GDP, employment and inflation are the gauges.

如果我們把經濟體想成一輛車，那麼 GDP、就業、和通膨就是儀表

A car can cruise along at 65 miles per hour without overheating.

一輛車在時速 65 哩下不會過熱

Safe cruising speed is like full employment;

安全的行車速度好比是充分就業

unemployment is low, prices are stable and people are happy.

失業率低，則物價穩定，皆大歡喜

But if we drive that car too fast for too long, it'll overheat,

但要是長時間行駛速度過快，那麼車子就會過熱

and in the economy, significant spending increases GDP causing an expansion.

而在經濟體中，GDP 急速上升就會造成擴張

Unemployment falls and factories start producing at full capacity to keep up with demand.