things like the cold, the flu, strep throat,

如感冒、流感和咽喉炎，

came from wandering clouds of poisonous vapor?

都來自周圍飄蕩的“毒氣”，你會怎麼想？

You'd probably think that absurd, and, don't worry, it's completely wrong.

你應該覺得很荒唐。 是的，這樣說真是一個大錯誤。

Yet that's actually what people thought caused diseases for several centuries.

可是，在古代的幾個世紀， 真的有人認為“毒氣”是疾病的源頭。

They called it miasma theory,

他們稱它為 “瘴氣”

and everyone from the public to the medical establishment accepted it.

而所有人，由大眾到醫療院所， 都相信這種說法。

But by the 1840s, in the midst of devastating cholera outbreaks in London,

可是，到了1840年代，倫敦暴發致命的“霍亂”

a small group of scientists had grown skeptical.

一小群的科學家開始懷疑了這種說法

Early microscopes had revealed the existence of tiny microorganisms,

早期顯微鏡已顯示微小的微生物的存在。

and they proposed that it was actually these germs that cause diseases,

他們提出這些微生物（病菌） 就是疾病的源頭，

hence the name germ theory.

並稱之為 “Germ Theory” （菌原論）。

Though most people held onto their assumptions

雖然大部分的人執迷自己的想法，

and strongly resisted this theory,

並強烈地拒絕新的理論，

its supporters were determined to prove them wrong

但新理論支持者決定藉著收集有力的數據，

by collecting compelling data.

來證明他們是錯的。

Leading the charge was a physician named Dr. John Snow.

率先做這事的是一位醫生，名叫約翰·斯諾。

Dr. Snow observed that cholera-infected patients

他觀察 “霍亂” 的病人

experienced severe vomiting and diarrhea,

有嚴重嘔吐和腹瀉。

symptoms of the gut as opposed to the lungs,

這些是消化系統的症狀，而非肺部。

and thought that perhaps the disease was transmitted through food or drink,

他認為這種疾病或許是透過飲食傳播的

not the air.

而不是經由空氣。

After investigating previous outbreaks,

在調查了先前的幾次爆發後，

he became convinced

他深信

that cholera was spread through contaminated water sources.

霍亂靠受污染的水而傳播。

Then, late in the summer of 1854

1854年夏末，

when cholera suddenly struck the Soho district,

霍亂突然在 Soho 區暴發

a neighborhood in London very close to his own,

該地靠近倫敦，離他家很近

Dr. Snow was hot on its trail.

斯諾緊追不捨

He requested the records for the deceased,

他向有關單位要了死者的記錄

and within the first week, there had already been 83 deaths.

發現在暴發的第一週，就已經有83名死亡病例

He mapped out where each of the deceased had lived

他按圖標記死者居住地點

and found that 73 of them resided close to the water pump on Broad Street.

發現其中73名死者都住在 位在 Broad Street 的一個水泵附近。

Dr. Snow strongly recommended shutting down the pump,

他強烈地建議關閉那個水泵，

and because he knew how unpopular germ theory was,

由於他明白 “菌原論” 是不受歡迎的，

he suggested that cholera was spread through a poison in the water

所以當他在向當局提出報告時

instead of microorganisms,

他說霍亂是透過水中的"毒“傳播的

when presenting his case to governmental officials.

而沒提到“微生物”的字眼

They were unconvinced,

雖然當局不相信他

but agreed to shut down the pump as an extra precaution.

但他們同意關閉那個水泵， 作為額外的防範措施。

Almost immediately, new cases of infection subsided.

很快地，幾乎沒有新的霍亂案例了

Bolstered by his success,

受自己的成功影響，

Dr. Snow was determined to connect the contaminated pump water

斯諾決心要研究

to the disease.

受污染的水泵和霍亂的關係。

He found the story of a widow who had died of cholera

他發現了一位因霍亂而死的寡婦。

and lived far away from Soho,

住在離Soho很遠的地方，

but had a servant bring her water from the Broad Street pump daily

但她的僕人每天都從 Broad Street 的水泵打水給她，

because she liked the taste.

因為她覺得味道好。

He also discovered a workhouse

他又發現在那水泵附近

located around the corner from the Broad Street pump

有一家濟貧院。

that housed hundreds of people, but only a handful had become infected,

住了幾百人，卻只有幾個人被霍亂感染了。

which Dr. Snow attributed to the fact

斯諾認為原因是那家濟貧院

that the workhouse had its own private well.

有自己的水井。

Finally, Dr. Snow heard of an infant

最後，斯諾還聽說

who may have been one of the earliest victims of the outbreak.

在霍亂暴發初期的受害者之一，有位是嬰兒

He learned that the child's dirty diapers

他的髒尿布

had been thrown into a cesspool

曾被丟到

right next to the public water pump on Broad Street.

那水泵旁邊的汚水坑內。

Again, Dr. Snow presented his case,

約翰·斯諾 再次提出他的發現，

but even then, city officials spurned his theory,

但當局依然鄙視了他的理論，

not wanting to admit that there was human waste in London's water supply,

因為他們不想承認倫敦的供水有排泄物。

or that they were wrong about miasma theory,

更不想承認他們對有幾百年歷史的

which was, after all, hundreds of years old.

“瘴氣” 的想法是錯的。

It wasn't until 1884 that Dr. Snow's efforts

一直到1884年，斯諾醫生的努力

were vindicated by Dr. Robert Koch,

才被羅伯·柯霍醫生所證實

who isolated the cholera-causing bacterium.

他分離出霍亂的病菌。

Koch developed a technique to grow pure cultures,

柯霍發明了一種 “細菌純培養” 技術，

and through a series of experiments,

通過一連串的實驗，

definitively proved that a specific bacterium

他證明了特定的細菌

directly cause disease.

會直接導致疾病。

Major contributions to germ theory

對証明 “菌原論” 最有貢獻的是

also came from prolific scientist Louis Pasteur,

一位富有創造力的科學家 -- 路易·巴斯德

whose study of microorganisms led to the development of the first vaccines.

他對微生物的研究促成第一種疫苗的研發。

By challenging assumptions with data-driven research,

通過以數據為主導的研究，

these scientists discredited an age-old theory

科學家挑戰了人的臆測， 證明了一個老舊的理論是不可信的，

and sparked a revolution that was incredibly beneficial to public health.

他們引發了一場對大眾健康有利的革命。

But all of this raises the question,

可是，以上所衍生的問題是：

what are the widely held scientific beliefs of today

現今廣受支持的科學信念

that our descendants will find ridiculous?

會不會被我們的後代認為是無稽之談呢？

And as any scientist would tell you,

正如所有科學家所說的

a question is an excellent place to start.

有疑問正是一個好的開始。