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Hello, and welcome back to the Note.
大家好,歡迎回到 the Note。
And we've had another day of nervous excitement ahead of next week's emitting of the federal reserve.
我們又將有新的緊張時刻,也就是美聯儲在下週的表態,
Oil continues to hit new lows.
油價持續創新低。
The branch price drops below forty dollars baro.
分支價格落至四十
Today, stock markets will decide limit around the world
現在,股市價格會決定對各國的限制。
the S&P inherit states, be headed for a good day but gave up most of its gains.
S&P 指出,在放棄大部分的營收之後,
By the ends, I think the critical form of today has been foreign exchanged, particularly emerging markets.
總歸來說,我認為現在的關鍵形勢已和外國交流了,尤其是那些新興市場。
While we're looking at here, is JP Morgen's emerging market foreign exchanging
我們現在來看這裡,這裡是摩根大通外匯的新興市場。
covers nine major foreign currencies of emerging markets and it's drop to a new low since its inception.
包括了九大主要新興市場的外幣,且掉到一個自開始時的新低。
Critically it's lower than it was back to September at the point when
嚴格來說,這比它九月時來的低,
the pressure of some emerging markets' currencies seems to force the Fed to pass raising rates.
一些來自新興市場的貨幣的壓力似乎逼迫美聯儲通過提高利率的決定。
If we take a look, particularly, at South Africa, where they are in something close to crisis
如果我們特別看北非,它們恐怕離這災難是相當近的,
over the decision to that finance minister, you can see that this is now a very dramatic new record
根據財政部長所做的決定,你可以看到這現在是一個引人注意的新紀錄
low for the rand against the dollar which could create very serious impact.
低到北非幣對美元的匯率,而這會造成相當嚴重的影響。
Perhaps more important for the Fed, however, we need to look at the currencies of America's two neighbors
也許對美聯儲更重要的是,我們需要看美國隔壁兩國的外幣。
Canada and Mexico, we don't normally think of those two countries having much in common beyond that for the US,
加拿大和墨西哥,我們通常不會認為這兩個國家有很多連結,除了在美國附近之外,
but as you can see their currencies have been treated by the markets.
但你可以看到它們的匯率是如何被市場影響的。
It's almost their identical for the last two years.
這幾乎是它們這兩年來的相似之處。
In the case, of the pay sell one point today was on the course for its lowest close against the dollar ever
在這個情形下,*
narrowly avoided that.
But it really does have a dilemma.
但這的確有個為難的情況存在。
The Mexican central bank will be meeting the day after the Fed on Friday of next week.
墨西哥央行將會在下星期五和美聯儲進行面談。
Everyone assumes or has assumed that they will have to follow through the rate hike to defend their currency.
大家認為,或已經預見它們將必須透過遵循升息的路,保護自己國的貨幣。
If we take a look at Mexican inflation now,
如果我們現在看墨西哥的通膨,
plainly Mexican inflation is normally regarded as a problem for being too high.
純粹墨西哥通膨的原因普遍被認為是太高的結果。
That's how you decide three percents, their inflation is dropping very significantly .
這就是你如何決定三個百分點,它們的通膨指數急劇的下降。
It's hard to see even if the Fed heights,
我們很難看到美聯儲所處的高度,
it's hard to see how Mexico can respond with the height of its own with the inflation falling like that.
很難看見墨西哥如何對自己所處的高度,和通膨指數下降做出解決辦法。
At home, this is only one of many dilemmas we're likely to see around the world
簡單來說,這只是我們可以在全世界看到一個左右為難的情況之一
if the Fed does raise rates.
如果美聯儲確定升息的話。
We have an interesting time ahead of us.
未來我們可以預期會是相當有趣的。