That was a great day for my mother.

對我媽來說，那是一個重要的日子。

My mother and father had been saving money for years to be able to buy that machine,

我的媽媽和爸爸存了很多年的錢才能夠買到這台洗衣機，

and the first day it was going to be used, even Grandma was invited to see the machine.

而這是它第一次被使用的日子，甚至連奶奶都被邀請來看這台洗衣機。

And Grandma was even more excited.

奶奶還比媽媽更興奮。

Throughout her life she had been heating water with firewood,

她這一輩子都是靠柴火來燒熱水，

and she had hand washed laundry for seven children.

她必須用雙手替七個孩子洗衣物。

And now she was going to watch electricity do that work.

而現在她會看到電力來做這件事。

My mother carefully opened the door, and she loaded the laundry into the machine, like this.

我媽媽小心地打開了門，然後她將這些衣物放進了洗衣機，就像這樣。

And then, when she closed the door, Grandma said, "No, no, no, no. Let me, let me push the button."

然後，當她關上門的時候，奶奶說：「等等， 讓我來按這個按鈕。」

And Grandma pushed the button, and she said, "Oh, fantastic! I want to see this! Give me a chair! Give me a chair! I want to see it,"

然後奶奶按下了按鈕，她說：「喔，真神奇啊！我想看看這個！給我一張椅子！給我一張椅子！我想看看它！」

and she sat down in front of the machine, and she watched the entire washing program.

於是她坐在洗衣機的前面，她看了整個洗滌的流程。

She was mesmerized.

她整個人都被迷住了。

To my grandmother, the washing machine was a miracle.

對我的奶奶來說，洗衣機是一個奇蹟。

Today, in Sweden and other rich countries, people are using so many different machines.

現在，在瑞典和其他有錢的國家，人們使用著各種不同的機器。

Look, the homes are full of machines. I can't even name them all, you know.

看，家裡堆滿了各種機器。我甚至沒辦法說出全部的名稱。

And they also, when they want to travel, they use flying machines that can take them to remote destinations.

同時，當他們想旅行時，他們會使用可以帶他們到遙遠的地方的飛行器。

And yet, in the world, there are so many people who still heat the water on fire, and they cook their food on fire.

然而，在這個世界上，還有許多人需要生火來燒熱水，也必須靠火來煮飯。

Sometimes they don't even have enough food, and they live below the poverty line.

有時候甚至沒有足夠的食物，他們活在貧窮的標準線之下。

There are two billion fellow human beings who live on less than two dollars a day.

有二十億的人們每天生活費用不到兩塊美金。

And the richest people over there -- there's one billion people -- and they live above what I call the "air line,"

而最富裕的人們 --有十億的人們 -- 他們生活在這條我稱為天際線的線之上，

because they spend more than 80 dollars a day on their consumption.

因為他們每天用在生活的花費超過八十美金。

But this is just one, two, three billion people, and obviously there are seven billion people in the world,

但這只是十、二十、 三十億的人們，而世界上有七十億的人口，

so there must be one, two, three, four billion people more who live in between the poverty and the air line.

所以還有十、二十、三十、四十億的人，生活在貧窮線與天際線之間。

They have electricity, but the question is, how many have washing machines?

他們擁有電力，但問題是，多少人擁有洗衣機？

I've done the scrutiny of market data, and I've found that, indeed, the washing machine has penetrated below the air line,

我做過市場調查，我發現，確實，洗衣機在這條天際線之下，

and today there's an additional one billion people out there who live above the "wash line."

而今日有十億人生活在「洗衣機線」之上。

And they consume more than 40 dollars per day.

他們每天的花費超過四十美元。

So two billion have access to washing machines.

所以有二十億的人可以使用洗衣機。

And the remaining five billion, how do they wash?

那麼剩下的五十億人們，是怎麼洗衣服的呢？

Or, to be more precise, how do most of the women in the world wash?

或者，更準確地來說，世界上大部分的女人是怎麼洗衣服的呢？

Because it remains a hard work for women to wash.

因為對女人來說，洗衣服仍然是件辛苦的事情。

They wash like this: by hand.

她們會這樣洗衣服：用手洗。

It's a hard, time-consuming labor, which they have to do for hours every week.

這是一件辛苦又耗費時間的工作，而她們每個禮拜都要花費好幾小時來做這件事。

And sometimes they also have to bring water from far away to do the laundry at home, or they have to bring the laundry away to a stream far off.

有時候她們必須將水從很遠的地方帶回家中洗衣服，或是必須將衣物帶到很遠的溪流旁邊清洗。

And they want the washing machine.

所以，她們想要有洗衣機。

They don't want to spend such a large part of their life doing this hard work with so relatively low productivity.

她們不想將生命中大部分的時間用在這種又辛苦又沒什麼價值的工作上。

And there's nothing different in their wish than it was for my grandma.

她們的這個願望和我奶奶的願望沒什麼不同。

Look here, two generations ago in Sweden -- picking water from the stream, heating with firewood and washing like that.

看這裡，兩代之前的瑞典 --從溪流邊取水，生火燒水和用手洗衣服。

They want the washing machine in exactly the same way.

她們也同樣想要有洗衣機。

But when I lecture to environmentally-concerned students, they tell me, "No, everybody in the world cannot have cars and washing machines."

但是，當我對著關心環保的學生們演說時，他們告訴我：「不，世界上的人們不可以都擁有汽車和洗衣機。」

How can we tell this woman that she ain't going to have a washing machine?

我們該怎麼告訴這個女人她不可以有一台洗衣機？

And then I ask my students, I've asked them -- over the last two years I've asked, "How many of you doesn't use a car?"

於是我問我的學生們，在過去兩年中，我問過他們：「你們之中有多少人不開車？」

And some of them proudly raise their hand and say, "I don't use a car."

一部分人自豪地舉起他們的手告訴我：「我不開車。」

And then I put the really tough question: "How many of you hand-wash your jeans and your bed sheets?"

接著我問他們一個尖銳的問題：「你們之中有多少人會用手洗牛仔褲和床單？」

And no one raised their hand.

結果沒有人舉手。

Even the hardcore in the green movement use washing machines.

即使是綠色運動的激進人士也會使用洗衣機。

So how come something that everyone uses and they think others will not stop it? What is special with this?

所以，這種每個人都會使用的東西，他們怎麼能夠期望別人不使用？這有什麼特別的嗎？

I had to do an analysis about the energy used in the world. Here we are.

來看看我對世界上能源使用狀況進行的分析。

Look here, you see the seven billion people up there: the air people, the wash people,

你看這裡有七十億的人們：天際等級的人，洗衣機等級的人，

the bulb people and the fire people.

使用燈泡的人和生火的人。

One unit like this is an energy unit of fossil fuel -- oil, coal or gas.

這是一個單位，一個石化燃料的單位 -- 石油，煤炭或天然氣。

That's what most of electricity and the energy in the world is.

這是世界上的電力和能源主要的來源。

And it's 12 units used in the entire world, and the richest one billion, they use six of them.

整個世界使用了十二個單位的能源，最有錢的十億人們，他們用了六個單位。

Half of the energy is used by one seventh of the world's population.

有一半的能源被這七分之一的人口給用掉了。

And these ones who have washing machines, but not a house full of other machines, they use two.

而這個家中有洗衣機卻沒有其它機器的族群，他們用了兩個單位。

This group uses three, one each.

這個族群用了三個單位，每十億人用一個單位。

And they also have electricity. And over there they don't even use one each.

他們也擁有電力。而這裡的人們卻用不到一個單位。

That makes 12 of them.

這樣總共是十二單位的能源。

But the main concern for the environmentally-interested students -- and they are right -- is about the future.

但是對關心環保的學生們而言，最主要的問題是 --而他們是對的-- 是未來的狀況。

What are the trends? If we just prolong the trends, without any real advanced analysis, to 2050, there are two things that can increase the energy use.

趨勢會是如何呢？如果我們將趨勢線延伸，不做任何進階的分析，到了2050 年，有兩件事會造成能源消耗的增加。

First, population growth. Second, economic growth.

第一，人口的成長。第二，經濟的成長。

Population growth will mainly occur among the poorest people here because they have high child mortality and they have many children per woman.

人口的增加主要發生在最貧窮的人們這邊，因為他們有較高的兒童死亡率，同時每個女人的平均生育數也比較多。

And that you will get two extra, but that won't change the energy use very much.

於是，這邊就會多出兩個單位，但這並不太會造成能源使用量的改變。

What will happen is economic growth.

接下來的是經濟成長。

The best of here in the emerging economies -- I call them the New East -- they will jump the air line.

這邊所發生的經濟成長 --我稱之為新東方 -- 他們會跳過天際線。

"Wopp!" they will say. And they will start to use as much as the Old West are doing already.

他們將會說：「跳！」接著他們會開始使用跟舊西方一樣多的能源耗用量。

And these people, they want the washing machine.

而那些人們，他們想要有洗衣機。

I told you. They'll go there. And they will double their energy use.

我說過的，他們將會移動到這裡。於是他們會增加兩倍的能源使用量。

And we hope that the poor people will get into the electric light.

而我們希望貧窮的人們能夠開始使用電燈。

And they'll get a two-child family without a stop in population growth.

接著他們會擁有兩個小孩的家庭而不會阻止人口成長。

But the total energy consumption will increase to 22 units.

但是能源的總耗用量將會增加到 22 單位。

And these 22 units you know-- still the richest people use most of it.

而這 22 單位的主要使用者仍然是最有錢的那些人。

So what needs to be done?

所以我們該做些什麼呢？

Because the risk, the high probability of climate change is real.

由於目前所存在的風險，關於氣候變遷的高度可能性是存在的。

It's real.

這是真實的事情。

Of course they must be more energy-efficient.

當然，他們必須更有效率的使用能源。

They must change behavior in some way.

他們必須改變使用習慣。

They must also start to produce green energy, much more green energy.

他們也必須開始製造綠色能源，更多的綠色能源。

But until they have the same energy consumption per person, they shouldn't give advice to others -- what to do and what not to do.

但在每個人能夠消耗相同單位的能量之前，他們不應該去建議別人 -- 什麼該做，而什麼不該做。

Here we can get more green energy all over.

這樣我們可以在整體上獲得更多綠色能源。

This is what we hope may happen.

這是我們期望發生的事。

It's a real challenge in the future.

這在未來是一大挑戰。

But I can assure you that this woman in the favela in Rio, she wants a washing machine.

但是我向你保證，在里約貧民窟中的這個女人，她想要有洗衣機。

She's very happy about her minister of energy that provided electricity to everyone -- so happy that she even voted for her, you know.

她很高興她那位能源部長能夠提供給每個人民電力 -- 所以人們都樂意投票給她。

And she became Dilma Rousseff, the president-elect of one of the biggest democracies in the world you know --

而她就是 Dilma Rousseff，在這世界中最大的民主國家之一 的總統當選者 --

moving from minister of energy to president.

從能源部長變成了總統。

If you have democracy, people will vote for washing machines.

如果你有民主制度，人們會為了洗衣機而投票。

They love them.

他們喜歡洗衣機。

And what's the magic with them?

它們神奇的地方在哪兒？

My mother explained the magic with this machine the very, very first day.

我媽媽在使用洗衣機的第一天解釋洗衣機的神奇之處給我聽。

She said, "Now Hans, we have loaded the laundry.

她說：「現在漢斯，我們把衣物放了進去，

The machine will make the work. And now we can go to the library."

洗衣機就會把衣物洗好。所以現在我們可以去圖書館了。」

Because this is the magic: you load the laundry, and what do you get out of the machine?

這是個神奇的事情：你把衣物放進去以後，你可以藉由洗衣機得到什麼？

You get books out of the machines, children's books.

你可以藉由洗衣機得到書本，兒童讀物。

And mother got time to read for me.

而媽媽有空可以念給我聽。

She loved this. I got the "ABC's" -- this is where I started my career as a professor, when my mother had time to read for me.

她喜歡這件事，我得到了「ABC」這本書 -- 這是我以教授作為工作的起點，在我媽媽有空念給我聽之後。

And she also got books for herself.

她也為自己得到了一些書。

She managed to study English and learn that as a foreign language.

她開始唸英文，學習這個作為第一外語。

And she read so many novels, so many different novels here, you know.

她讀了許多小說，許多不同的小說。

And we really, we really loved this machine.

我們真的很愛洗衣機。

And what we said, my mother and me, "Thank you industrialization.

而媽媽和我想說的是：「謝謝工業化。

Thank you steel mill.

謝謝鋼鐵廠。

Thank you power station.

謝謝電廠。

And thank you chemical processing industry that gave us time to read books."

謝謝化學製品工業給予我們唸書的時間。」

Thank you very much.

非常感謝大家。

(Applause)

(掌聲)