Name: 中東部石油不僅僅是供應的問題｜短線觀點 (Mid East oil not just about supply | Short View)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T05:55:18.000Z
Duration: 2 min 55 s

情態助動詞 B1

Most of us might look at a map of the Middle East and think lots of oil.

大多數的我們看到一張中東地圖，就可能會聯想到許多石油。

程度副詞

After all, almost a third of the world's crude supply comes from this region.

無論如何，大約三分之一的是原油供給是來自這個區域。

轉承詞

Over the past year though, Saudi led strategy by OPEC to push up production

雖然在過去這一年，沙烏地阿拉伯帶動石油輸出組織增加石油產量

and grab back market share from US shell oil producers, has had a dramatic effect on oil prices.

並搶回美國殼牌石油生產商的市占率，已經對油價產生巨大影響。

Brent has fallen to nearly $30 a barrel this week.

布侖特原油已在這星期跌至一桶近三十美金。

Lower commodity imports should have some positive effects on the world economy,

較低的日用品進口應對全球經濟有些正面的影響，

particularly upon the largest developed economies.

尤其是對那些強盛的已開發經濟體而言。

Cheaper petrol appears to have spurred gasoline demand in the US,

便宜的汽油似乎已在美國激起人們對汽油的需求，

the world's largest consumer, on average up nearly 4 percent last year.

美國身為世界最大的汽油消費者，平均來說需求增加了 4% 左右。

Now the bad news is, what rising OPEC production could do to demand in oil exporting countries themselves?

壞消息是，石油輸出國組織石油產量的增加會對石油出口國自身的需求造成什麼影響？

Case in point, the Middle East, more than 9% of world oil consumption.

典型來說，中東地區擁有全球 9% 石油消費量。

As you can see here and notice the change over the period from 2000.

就如同你現在所看到的，請注意這自 2000 年的變化。

And Saudi Arabia's economy has begun to feel the effects of this and has begun to suffer.

還有，沙烏地阿拉伯已開始感受到這些效應並已備受折磨。

This year, economic output will grow at the slowest pace since 2009 according to Credit Suisse.

今年，根據瑞士信貸，經濟產量將以自 2009 年以來最慢的速度攀升。

預算赤字在國民生產毛額的 15% 。

As a result, Middle Eastern oil demand could suffer.

因此，中東的石油需求恐怕會陷入泥沼。

This region, consumed nearly 9 million barrels per day in 2014 according to BP,

根據英國石油公司在 2014 年的調查，這個地區每日消耗近九百萬桶石油，

mostly from Saudi Arabia, Iran and the UAE.

大部分來自沙烏地阿拉伯、伊朗及阿拉伯聯合大公國。

China, the world's number two consumer, uses 11 million barrels daily,

中國，這個世界第二大的石油消費國，每日大約消耗一千一百萬桶，

at seasonal peaks, well over 1 million barrels per day are burnt just to generate electricity in the middle eastern region.

在季節性的高峰，平均每日超過一百萬桶的燒毀，只為其國土中東地區的發電。

So any economic slowdown should lead to less power output and less oil demand.

所以任何經濟衰退可能導致較少的能源產出和較低的石油需求。

In the decade to 2014, consumption there expanded at a faster pace in percentage terms than any other region, including Asia-Pacific.

在到 2014 年的十年間，包括亞太地區，那裡消費量擴大的百分比較其他地區都還要的迅速。

In terms of barrels per day, the Middle East oil demand growth compares with the two largest consumers as you can see here.

在日消耗桶數的方面你可以看到，中東地區石油需求的增長與兩個最大的消費國相比，

Meanwhile, Saudi government revenues are down enough that the ministers are even considering privatizing its state oil company Aramco.

同時，沙烏地阿拉伯政府的收入下降到部長們甚至考慮私有化其國有的沙烏地阿拉伯國家石油公司。

Cuts to fuel subsidies will raise costs to consumers too.

燃料補貼的削減亦會增加消費者的支出。

Late last month, petrol jumped by two-thirds in Saudi Arabia although petrol remains extremely cheap there.

上月末，儘管汽油在沙烏地阿拉伯十分便宜，汽油在當地仍漲了三分之二，

Still, even the UAE has also had to cut subsidies last summer.

不過在去年夏天，即使是阿拉伯聯合大公國也不得不削減補貼。

The bear market in oil is likely to hurt oil producing economies, which in turn will diminish overall oil demand.

在熊市中，石油很可能會影響石油生產國，這也就會反過來降低整體的石油需求。

The Middle East is not just about oil supply.

中東地區所代表的不僅僅是石油供給。