in a typical day?

你做了多少選擇嗎?

Do you know how many choices you make

你知道一個星期之中

in typical week?

你做了多少選擇嗎?

I recently did a survey

最近，我做了一項調查

with over 2,000 Americans,

對象是兩千名美國人

and the average number of choices

那些美國人在一天之中

that the typical American reports making

平均做了

is about 70 in a typical day.

七十項選擇

There was also recently a study done with CEOs

最近還有一項關於總裁的調查

in which they followed CEOs around for a whole week.

在調查中，科學家跟著那些總裁整整一個星期

And these scientists simply documented all the various tasks

這些科學家簡單地把那些總裁

that these CEOs engaged in

參與的事情記錄下來

and how much time they spent engaging

以及總裁在那些相關的事情中

in making decisions related to these tasks.

花了多少時間做決定

And they found that the average CEO

科學家從那些總裁中發現到

engaged in about 139 tasks in a week.

他們在一周中平均會參與139件事情

Each task was made up of many, many, many sub-choices of course.

每件事情都由許多選擇以及次要選擇所構成

50 percent of their decisions

有百分之五十的決定

were made in nine minutes or less.

用了不到九分鐘的時間

Only about 12 percent of the decisions

只有百分之十二的決定

did they make an hour or more of their time.

他們花了一個小時以上的時間

Think about your own choices.

想想看你自己的選擇

Do you know how many choices

你知道你有多少選擇

make it into your nine minute category

需要花費九分鐘

versus your one hour category?

又有多少需要一小時呢?

How well do you think you're doing

你覺得自己

at managing those choices?

有多擅長做選擇呢？

Today I want to talk

今天，我想和各位談論

about one of the biggest modern day choosing problems that we have,

關於現代生活中我們碰到的最大問題

which is the choice overload problem.

就是我們要做太多選擇了

I want to talk about the problem

我想談論這些問題

and some potential solutions.

以及一些可能的解決方法

Now as I talk about this problem,

當我談論這個問題時

I'm going to have some questions for you

我想先問你幾個問題

and I'm going to want to know your answers.

然後我想知道你的答案

So when I ask you a question,

當我問你一個問題

since I'm blind,

由於我是盲人

only raise your hand if you want to burn off some calories.

所以如果你舉手的話，只能因此消耗一些熱量

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

Otherwise, when I ask you a question,

因此，當我問你一個問題時

and if your answer is yes,

如果你的答案是肯定的

I'd like you to clap your hands.

請你拍手

So for my first question for you today:

今天我的第一個問題是：

Are you guys ready to hear about the choice overload problem?

你們大家都準備好聽關於「選擇過量」的問題了嗎？

(Applause)

(掌聲)

Thank you.

謝謝

So when I was a graduate student at Stanford University,

當我還是史丹佛大學的研究生時

I used to go to this very, very upscale grocery store;

我經常去一間非常高級的雜貨店

at least at that time it was truly upscale.

至少在那個時候它是非常高級的

It was a store called Draeger's.

那是一間叫「德瑞格」的店

Now this store, it was almost like going to an amusement park.

現在這間店幾乎變成了一間遊樂場

They had 250 different kinds of mustards and vinegars

他們有兩百五十種的黃芥茉和醋

and over 500 different kinds

還有超過五百種不同的

of fruits and vegetables

水果和蔬菜

and more than two dozen different kinds of bottled water --

以及二十多種不同的瓶裝水

and this was during a time when we actually used to drink tap water.

這還是在我們習慣喝水龍頭水的那個年代

I used to love going to this store,

我以前很喜歡去這家店

but on one occasion I asked myself,

但是有一次我問自己

well how come you never buy anything?

為何你從來不買東西？

Here's their olive oil aisle.

這裡是賣橄欖油的走道

They had over 75 different kinds of olive oil,

他們有超過七十五種不同的橄欖油

including those that were in a locked case

包含那些被鎖在櫃子裡

that came from thousand-year-old olive trees.

用千年老橄欖樹製成的油

So I one day decided to pay a visit to the manager,

因此，有一天我決定去見經理一面

and I asked the manager,

我問他

"Is this model of offering people all this choice really working?"

「這種提供大家所有選擇的行銷模式真的有用嗎？」

And he pointed to the busloads of tourists

他以每天一車車前來的

that would show up everyday,

遊客為例

with cameras ready usually.

通常這些遊客也都準備了相機

We decided to do a little experiment,

我們決定做一點小實驗

and we picked jam for our experiment.

以果醬為實驗樣本

Here's their jam aisle.

這裡是賣果醬走道

They had 348 different kinds of jam.

他們有348種不同的果醬

We set up a little tasting booth

我們設置了一些試吃攤

right near the entrance of the store.

就在接近店門口的位置

We there put out six different flavors of jam

我們在那裡放了六種

or 24 different flavors of jam,

或是二十四種不同的果醬

and we looked at two things:

然後我們觀察兩件事：

First, in which case

第一，在哪一種情況下

were people more likely to stop, sample some jam?

人們比較願意停下來試吃？

More people stopped when there were 24, about 60 percent,

大部份的人在有二十四種果醬的時候停下來， 大約佔了百分之六十

than when there were six,

而有六種果醬時

about 40 percent.

則只有百分之四十的人停下來試吃

The next thing we looked at

另一個部份，我們觀察

is in which case were people more likely

在哪一種情況下

to buy a jar of jam.

人們比較有可能買一罐果醬

Now we see the opposite effect.

我們發現了相反的結果

Of the people who stopped when there were 24,

當人們看到二十四種果醬停下來時

only three percent of them actually bought a jar of jam.

只有百分之三的人真的買了一罐果醬

Of the people who stopped when there were six,

而在只有六種果醬前停下來的人

well now we saw that 30 percent of them

我們發現有百分之三十的人

actually bought a jar of jam.

買了果醬

Now if you do the math,

現在如果你試算看看

people were at least six times more likely to buy a jar of jam

人們碰到六種果醬後購買的比率

if they encountered six

遠高於碰到二十四種果醬的比率

than if they encountered 24.

至少超過六倍之多

Now choosing not to buy a jar of jam

現在選擇不買果醬

is probably good for us --

對我們來說反而是一個好消息

at least it's good for our waistlines --

-至少對我們的腰圍來說是好的-

but it turns out that this choice overload problem affects us

但這也代表了過多選擇的問題

even in very consequential decisions.

也影響了我們做許多重要的決定

We choose not to choose,

我們選擇不去做選擇

even when it goes against our best self-interests.

即使這件事與我們的最佳利益相左

So now for the topic of today: financial savings.

因此，我們要談到今天的另一個主題：省錢。

Now I'm going to describe to you a study I did

現在，我要向各位介紹一份

with Gur Huberman, Emir Kamenica, Wei Jang

我和Gur Huberman, Emir Kamenica, Wei Jang共同完成的研究

where we looked at the retirement savings decisions

這份研究裡，我們觀察了大約一百萬名美國人

of nearly a million Americans

如何在

from about 650 plans

全美的650種的退休儲蓄計畫中

all in the U.S.

做選擇

And what we looked at

在這個研究中我們想要了解的是

was whether the number of fund offerings

人們在退休儲蓄計畫

available in a retirement savings plan,

與401退休福利計畫中

the 401(k) plan,

是否因為提供的資金多寡

does that affect people's likelihood

而影響人們決定

to save more for tomorrow.

是否為未來存更多錢

And what we found

在這個研究中

was that indeed there was a correlation.

我們發現這兩者確實有關聯性

So in these plans, we had about 657 plans

因此在大約657個計畫中

that ranged from offering people

包含了提供人們兩種到59種不同選擇

anywhere from two to 59 different fund offerings.

的退休計畫裡

And what we found was that,

我們發現的是

the more funds offered,

提供的資金愈多

indeed, there was less participation rate.

反而愈少人參與

So if you look at the extremes,

因此當你看到圖片的起端

those plans that offered you two funds,

那些只提供兩種資金選擇的計畫

participation rates were around in the mid-70s --

人們的參與率大約是70%

still not as high as we want it to be.

不如我們所期待的高參與率

In those plans that offered nearly 60 funds,

而那些大約有60種不同資金選擇的計畫

participation rates have now dropped

參與率下降至

to about the 60th percentile.

大約60%

Now it turns out

由此可知

that even if you do choose to participate

即使有更多的選項

when there are more choices present,

提供你選擇

even then, it has negative consequences.

得到的反而是負面的結果

So for those people who did choose to participate,

因此對那些最後選擇參與的人們來說

the more choices available,

擁有愈多的選擇

the more likely people were

反而造成人們避免購買

to completely avoid stocks or equity funds.

股票或是類似的基金

The more choices available,

愈多的選擇

the more likely they were

人們反而更有可能選擇

to put all their money in pure money market accounts.

將錢單純的存在帳戶裡

Now neither of these extreme decisions

如果為人們未來的經濟情況著想

are the kinds of decisions

這兩種極端的方式

that any of us would recommend for people

都不會成為

when you're considering their future financial well-being.

我們推薦給他人的選擇

Well, over the past decade,

然而，在過去的十年裡

we have observed three main negative consequences

我們觀察到提供人們愈來愈多的選擇

to offering people more and more choices.

會產生三種主要的負面結果 （過多的選擇降低了…）

They're more likely to delay choosing --

他們更容易延遲決定-- （投影片：準時遵守約定）

procrastinate even when it goes against their best self-interest.

即使耽擱會影響他們的最佳利益

They're more likely to make worse choices --

他們更有可能做錯決定-- （投影片：選擇的品質）

worse financial choices, medical choices.

更糟的理財與醫療決定

They're more likely to choose things that make them less satisfied,

他們更有可能選擇讓他們不太滿意的決定 （投影片：滿足感）

even when they do objectively better.

即使客觀來說他們的選擇沒那麼不好

The main reason for this

造成這種情況最主要的原因是

is because, we might enjoy gazing at those giant walls

我們可能享受盯著那些巨大的城牆

of mayonnaises, mustards, vinegars, jams,

像是美乃滋、黃芥茉、醋、果醬等等的東西

but we can't actually do the math of comparing and contrasting

但是我們不可能真的一一比較

and actually picking from that stunning display.

然後從其中挑選出一罐

So what I want to propose to you today

因此，今天我想推薦

are four simple techniques --

四種簡單的技巧－

techniques that we have tested in one way or another

這些技巧都已經過我們一再的測試－

in different research venues --

透過不同的研究場域

that you can easily apply

讓你可以簡單的

in your businesses.

運用在事業上

The first: Cut.

第一：精簡

You've heard it said before,

相信你之前早已聽過

but it's never been more true than today,

「少即是多」這句話

that less is more.

這個說法對現今社會來說再真切合適不過了

People are always upset when I say, "Cut."

當我說「精簡」時，人們總是感到沮喪

They're always worried they're going to lose shelf space.

他們總是擔心會失去陳列的空間

But in fact, what we're seeing more and more

然而我們發現事實是

is that if you are willing to cut,

如果你願意選擇精簡

get rid of those extraneous redundant options,

捨去那些額外不必要的選項

well there's an increase in sales,

你的銷售量就會增加

there's a lowering of costs,

支出會減少

there is an improvement of the choosing experience.

這裡有一項關於選擇而有所進展的故事

When Proctor & Gamble

當寶僑公司（Proctor & Gamble ）將26種不同的海倫仙度絲產品

went from 26 different kinds of Head & Shoulders to 15,

精簡至15種時

they saw an increase in sales by 10 percent.

他們發現銷售額增加了百分之十

When the Golden Cat Corporation

當黃金貓公司（Golden Cat）捨棄了

got rid of their 10 worst-selling cat litter products,

10種銷售量最差的商品

they saw an increase in profits

他們的獲利成長了

by 87 percent --

百分之八十七

a function of both increase in sales

這是一個能夠增加銷售量

and lowering of costs.

又減少支出的功效

You know, the average grocery store today

你知道現在平均每一間雜貨店

offers you 45,000 products.

提供四萬五千種商品

The typical Walmart today offers you 100,000 products.

沃爾瑪(Walmart) 超市每天提供你十萬種商品

But the ninth largest retailer,

然而現今世界上

the ninth biggest retailer in the world today

第九大的零售商

is Aldi,

阿爾迪超市（Aldi）

and it offers you only 1,400 products --

只供應你一千四百種商品

one kind of canned tomato sauce.

其中只包含一種蕃茄醬

Now in the financial savings world,

在現今理財儲蓄的社會中

I think one of the best examples that has recently come out

我想最好的例子是

on how to best manage the choice offerings

最近由David Laibson 在哈佛大學進行的一項計畫

has actually been something that David Laibson was heavily involved in designing,

這個計畫是關於

which was the program that they have at Harvard.

如何用最好的方式來管理選擇

Every single Harvard employee

每一位哈佛的教職員

is now automatically enrolled

會自動被加入

in a lifecycle fund.

一項人生規畫基金中

For those people who actually want to choose,

對於那些真正想要選擇的人

they're given 20 funds,

他們會有二十種不同的基金

not 300 or more funds.

而非三百種或更多的選擇

You know, often, people say,

人們總是說

"I don't know how to cut.

「我不知道如何精簡，

They're all important choices."

每一個都是很好的選擇。」

And the first thing I do is I ask the employees,

因此，我對這些教職員詢問的第一個問題是：

"Tell me how these choices are different from one another.

「告訴我這些選擇有什麼不同？

And if your employees can't tell them apart,

如果你的教職員都無法分辨了

neither can your consumers."

更別說是你的顧客了。」

Now before we started our session this afternoon,

在我們開始這個活動之前

I had a chat with Gary.

我和Gary有一段對話

And Gary said that he would be willing

Gary告訴我他很樂意提供

to offer people in this audience

在場的聽眾

an all-expenses-paid free vacation

一個免費前往世界上

to the most beautiful road in the world.

最漂亮的公路旅行的機會

Here's a description of the road.

這是關於這條路的簡介

And I'd like you to read it.

給各位參考

And now I'll give you a few seconds to read it

現在我給大家一點時間來閱讀

and then I want you to clap your hands

如果你想要得到Gary提供的機會請你拍手

if you're ready to take Gary up on his offer.

（投影片：這條Stremnaya公路非常的漂亮，有壯麗的群山、懸崖和青草。由於這條公路的極佳景觀，結合了非常狹窄的路和極高的懸崖，因此也有人認為這條公路是世界上最危險的公路。*諷刺的是，公路的危險也成為了自1990年起，旅客最喜歡前往的地點。尤其是愛好山路的騎士將其視為最刺激的下坡道路。 *平均每個月會有兩台腳踏車會從路上摔下來。）

(Light clapping)

(稀少的掌聲)

Okay. Anybody who's ready to take him up on his offer.

有人想要得到這個機會嗎？

Is that all?

這是全部了嗎？

All right, let me show you some more about this.

好吧！我再讓你多知道一點。

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

You guys knew there was a trick, didn't you.

你們都知道事有玄機

(Honk)

(喇叭聲)

Now who's ready to go on this trip.

現在，有誰想要參加這趟旅行？

(Applause)

(鼓掌)

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

I think I might have actually heard more hands.

我想確實有更多人鼓掌了

All right.

其實

Now in fact,

事實上，

you had objectively more information

客觀來說

the first time around than the second time around,

你們在第一回合時較第二回合時有更多的訊息

but I would venture to guess

但是我大膽猜測

that you felt that it was more real the second time around.

你們在第二回合時有更真實的感覺

Because the pictures made it feel

因為這些照片讓一切都變得

more real to you.

更加真實

Which brings me to the second technique

因此這讓我有了第二個處理

for handling the choice overload problem,

過多選擇問題的技巧

which is concretization.

那就是「具體化」

That in order for people to understand

這會幫助人們理解

the differences between the choices,

每一樣選擇之間的差異處

they have to be able to understand

他們必須了解

the consequences associated with each choice,

每一個選擇所帶來的結果

and that the consequences need to be felt

還有這些結果需要讓人如臨其境