of the European Union will take place.

會在何時進行尚未明瞭。

David Cameron has still to agree the precise terms

David Cameron 還是同意他的歐洲夥伴設立

of a new deal for Britain with his European partners.

一個全新處理英國議題的明確方案。

So, the referendum could take place in the summer,

所以，公投可能會在今年夏天舉行，

maybe in the autumn, or maybe even a lot later,

或是秋天，或者更久以後，

because Janan Ganesh, our political commentator,

因為， Janan Ganesh ，我們的政治評論家，

you have a slightly different take on whether we should be having a referendum at all at this time.

你有個比較不同的觀點，關於這次是否該不該舉行公投。

Well, people are obsessed about whether it's gonna be June, whether it's gonna be September,

嗯，人們極度關注它會在六月或是九月舉行，

whether it can conceivably be next summer.

或是它可能會在明天夏天才舉行。

I think the problem with timing, is that we're not doing this maybe a decade from now.

我想時間點會是一個問題，是因為十年前我們不會做這種事。

There is so much uncertainty about the future direction of the European Union, and how Britain relates to it.

對於歐盟未來的走向以及應英國在這之中的關係有太多的不確定性，

That really, we have no sense of what we're voting to stay in, or get out of,

那真的是，我們根本不知道我們投票支持留下或退出的是甚麼，

and the principal example, that I talked about this week in the column,

而最只要的例子，我這週在專欄提過，

is eurozone integration. It is not impossible that within a decade the eurozone becomes the real EU in all but name.

是歐元區的整合。在十年內歐元區變成真正的歐洲聯盟，國名名存實亡不是不可能。

It becomes the effective, decision-making caucus for things like economic and financial regulation.

它變成有效率的決策組織，專門針對經濟或金融制裁等議題。

But that's what David Cameron thought was going to happen

但是這就是 David Cameron 在2012年最危急的時刻

at the height of the crisis in 2012,

覺得會發生的事，

and one of the reasons he called for a referendum.

也是他會聲張需要公投的原因之一。

Absolutely, and the government tried very hard to protect Britain

完全正確，而且正負非常努力地在保護英國

in the event of that integration, so there were very complicated double majorities introducing bits of banking policies,

在那次整合的事件中，所以當時對於銀行政策有非常複雜的兩派立場，

so that has to be a majority of non-euro countries as well as euro countries for certain policies.

所以非歐元國家是一個大勢力，歐元國家面對某些特定的政策也是。

Now that eurozone integration hasn't happened yet, but I think that's mainly because of

所以現在歐元區整合還沒發生，但我想這主要是因為

the sheer slog of getting any of these constitutional and institutional changes in the EU.

改變這歐盟的些組織和制度正如火如荼的衝擊著。

Give it several years, I think there's a chance, maybe in the form of a new treaty,

再給他幾年，我想是會有機會的，互許以一個新的條約的方式，

that something like that emerges to secure what has been an unstable currency of the past five years.

類似的狀況出現，得以鞏固過去五年動盪的貨幣。

Well, we are where we are, but I think the other interesting historical perspective that you gave this week, Janan,

我們現在還沒到那個階段，但我想，你這週提到的其他有趣的歷史論點，Janan，

is that actually the referendum, the first referendum that we had in 1975,

是公投，1975年的第一個公投，

still flush with EU membership in '73, should've taken place in the mid-1980s, when we had the big push to the single market.

還充斥著1973年的歐盟會員資格，應該要再1980年代中期，當單一市場受到衝擊的時候舉行。

Tell us a bit more about that.

告訴我們多一點。

Well, 1986 was a far more important year in Britain's relationship with Europe than 1975 was.

1986年對英國和歐洲的關係遠比1975年重要的多。

In '86, Margaret Thatcher, Prime Minister of the time, signed the Single European Act,

在1986年，柴契爾夫人，當時的總理，簽署了單一歐洲法案，

which began the single market as we know it, perhaps as we know it now.

為單一市場，或許是我們現在熟知的單一市場，拉開序幕。

It introduced more qualified majority voting, reduced vetos, eroded national sovereignty for the sake of this internal market.

它介紹更多多數決的權力，刪減了否決權，侵蝕了網路市場的國家主權。

That was a much bigger decision point for this country, and there wasn't a referendum.

那是一個對這個國家來說很大的決定，而當時並沒有公投。

In 1975, a much more limited European economic community we'd only been in for two years, and we did have a referendum.

1975年，一個才兩歲，受到更多限制的歐洲經濟體卻有了公投。

So we've got the timing wrong I think, already.

所以我想我們已經把時間點弄錯了。

And I worry that if we're a decade early last time, we're a decade early this time.

而且我擔心如果上次我們早了十年，這次我們也早了十年。

But we are where we are as I was saying,

但究係我剛剛說的，我們現在到了甚麼階段我們就是在甚麼階段上。

so David Cameron, where, how do you says his chances of securing here, and yes, at this particular moment,

所以 David Cameron ，你怎麼看他鞏固這裡的機會，在這個特定的時刻。

and where is the balance of opinion in Britain?

英國的平衡點又在哪裡?

Some of it hinges on the quality of the deal, that he extracts in February the 18th, the 19th,

有些要看協議的質量，他在2月18、19號摘錄的，

when there's a European Summit.

在歐洲高峰會議上。

So, no more closer union, a bit of a crack down on benefits from migrants,

所以沒有更近的聯盟，對移民的利益嚴加控管，

and some guarantees of protection against that eurozone integration that you talked about earlier.

而你稍早提到，對於歐元區整合的抗議聲浪。

Well, this is where he has a problem.

嗯，這就是他有麻煩的地方了。

The area of renegotiation that matters most to this country's strategic interests

重新商議的空間對這個國家戰略上的利益有著重要的地位。

which is protecting non-euro countries within the EU,

可以保護歐盟的非歐元區。

so we don't just become a rubber-stamp.

所以不會不經審查就批准。

Is not the area of renegotiation that matters to voters, which is migration,

對於選民來說重要的不是重新商議的空間，是移民，

and if you look at the preliminary deal he agreed with Donald Tusk, the Council President,

如果你注意他和 Donald Tusk ，會議主席，最初的協定，

the government is clearly prioritised winning staff back on migration, and fair play, they've done quite a bit of that.

政府很明顯的優先利用移民把員工贏回來，公平來說，他們做了很多這樣的事。

But they haven't concentrated quite the same diplomatic capital

但是他們沒有集中同樣多的外交資本

on the technical work of protecting non-euro countries in the EU.

在技術上保護歐盟非歐元國家這方面。

So I think his chances of winning the referendum are reasonable.

所以我合理覺得他有贏得此次公投的機會。

He's got something on migrants.

他對移民有一套。

My worry is will voters stay in, and then find ourselves in a very invidious position within several years.

我擔憂的是會不會選民會留下來，並在幾年內發現我們身處一個不公平的環境。

So, David Cameron's chances of securing an in-vote, remain-vote in the European Union

所以 David Cameron 在歐盟保留原票數以及獲得新票源的機會

are somewhat better than Arsenal's chances of winning the Premier League, is that what you think?

在某方面來說比 Arsenal 贏得超級聯賽還高囉? 你是這樣覺得嗎?

Sadly, much much better.

很難過的，高非常多。

Thank you very much, Janan Ganesh.

非常謝謝你 Janan Ganesh 。

Thank you.

謝謝。