Two moons are turning the tides in emerging markets, according to Michael Power, Strategist at Investec.

根據Investec. 策略分析師 Michael Power 的觀察，兩大巨頭將主導新興市場的情勢。

China's dwindling demand for the resources exported by developing nations is an old narrative.

中國對發展中國家出口品需求日益降低，早已不是新鮮事。

Years of declining growth rates and rising unemployment have caused lasting damage across the emerging world.

多年來中國生育率不斷下降，失業率持續攀升，對整個新興市場造成長久的傷害。

But it's the other moon, represented by the US Federal Reserve,

但真正引起市場恐慌的，

which is now causing particular consternation.

是另一個巨頭，美國聯準會。

The Fed is the definitive source of global financial liquidity,

聯準會是掌控全球資金流動的大老。

and the surge in landing to developing countries that propelled much of their growth in the last 15 years

過去十五年來，聯準會推動發展中國家經濟成長的政策

has now come to a halt.

卻在今年度踩煞車。

This may give way to a vicious circle of deleveraging, according to the Bank for International Settlements,

被人稱為「央行的央行」的國際清算銀行

which is known as the central bank of central banks.

認為此現象可能會造成去槓桿化的惡性循環。

新興市場若崩盤，會對西方國家有何影響？

The developing world accounts for more than half of global economic growth.

全球經濟成長超過半數是來自發展中國家的貢獻，

Their misfortunes cannot but rebound upon the West.

那些國家的經濟衰退勢必會為西方國家帶來反彈效應，

The total stock of dollar denominated credit in bonds and bank loans to emerging markets

截至去年九月底，發行給新興市場的美元債券和銀行貸款

was 3.3 trillion USD at the end of September.

為3.3兆美元。

That's down from 3.36 trillion USD at the end of June.

相較於去年六月底共少了六億美元。

And the irresistible allure of cheap credit inspired households from Brazil to Thailand and Turkey,

在此低息貸款的政策吸引下，巴西、泰國、土耳其等國家人民

to spend beyond their means.

開始大量消費，入不敷出。

Injecting more liquidity into an engorged financial system with quantitative easing,

對早已膨脹的經濟體注入流通性和採取量化寬鬆政策

may now be doing more harm than good in the developing world.

可能對發展中國家弊大於利。

新興市場何去何從？

Investors are deserting emerging market assets in droves.

投資者接二連三從新興市場撤資。

Capital outflows hit an estimated 735 billion USD last year.

去年，資本外流量預估有7350億美元，

That marked the first year of net outflow since 1998, according to the Institute of International Finance.

國際金融協會稱此為新興市場自1998年以來，首次的資本淨外流。

Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund

IMF總裁 Christine Lagarde 於上週直言

warned last week of the threat to global growth,

新興市場潛在的危機

that an impending crisis in the emerging markets would pose.

恐對全球經濟成長造成衝擊。