that I hope will resonate with other things you've already heard,

我希望這會和你們已經得到的資訊獲得共鳴

and I'll try to make some connections myself, in case you miss them.

我也會嘗試做一些連接﹐免得你遺漏了什麼

I want to start with what I call the "official dogma."

我想從”定律“開始談

The official dogma of what?

什麼定律﹖

The official dogma of all western industrial societies.

所有西方工業社會的定律

And the official dogma runs like this:

這定律是這麼說的﹕

if we are interested in maximizing the welfare of our citizens,

為了人民的福利和幸福著想

the way to do that is to maximize individual freedom.

我們必須讓每個人擁有最大的個人自由

The reason for this is both that freedom is in and of itself good,

因為自由本身是好的

valuable, worthwhile, essential to being human.

有益的﹐是身為人的基本價值之一

And because if people have freedom,

如果人們有了自由

then each of us can act on our own

每個人都可以自發地

to do the things that will maximize our welfare,

去追求屬於自己的最大幸福

and no one has to decide on our behalf.

我們不需要別人來幫我們做決定

The way to maximize freedom is to maximize choice.

最大的自由的方法就是擁有最多選擇

The more choice people have, the more freedom they have,

人們的選擇性越多﹐他們擁有的自由也越多

and the more freedom they have,

他們擁有的自由越多

the more welfare they have.

他們就越幸福快樂

This, I think, is so deeply embedded in the water supply

這件事深深地銘刻於我們的思源中

that it wouldn't occur to anyone to question it.

沒有人會質疑它

And it's also deeply embedded in our lives.

它在每個方面存在我們的生活中

I'll give you some examples of what modern progress has made possible for us.

讓我給你們一個例子﹐看看現代社會發展帶來的可能性

This is my supermarket. Not such a big one.

這是我家附近的超市﹐不算很大

I want to say just a word about salad dressing.

我想談談沙拉醬

175 salad dressings in my supermarket,

我的超市裡有175種沙拉醬

if you don't count the 10 extra-virgin olive oils

如果我們不把那10種特級初榨橄欖油

and 12 balsamic vinegars you could buy

還有12種紅酒醋算進去的話

to make a very large number of your own salad dressings,

你也可以買這兩種東西回去自己調專屬你自己的沙拉醬

in the off-chance that none of the 175 the store has on offer suit you.

如果175種沙拉醬裡沒一樣合你意的話

So this is what the supermarket is like.

這就是我們今日的超市。

And then you go to the consumer electronics store to set up a stereo system --

如果你去電子用品店﹐想要裝一套音響系統

speakers, CD player, tape player, tuner, amplifier --

音箱﹐CD播放器﹐卡帶播放器﹐調節器﹐擴音器

and in this one single consumer electronics store,

在任何一家電子用品店裡

there are that many stereo systems.

都有許多不同的音響系統

We can construct six-and-a-half-million different stereo systems

我們可以從一家電子用品店裡所提供的不同零件裡

out of the components that are on offer in one store.

組裝出六百五十萬種不同的音響

You've got to admit that's a lot of choice.

你必須承認這些選擇還真多

In other domains -- the world of communications.

在其他領域 - 在傳播的世界裡

There was a time, when I was a boy,

曾幾何時﹐在我還是個小男孩的時候

when you could get any kind of telephone service you wanted,

你可以選擇任何電信公司

as long as it came from Ma Bell.

只要確定它連接到貝爾公司

You rented your phone. You didn't buy it.

你租你的電話﹐你不是買

One consequence of that, by the way, is that the phone never broke.

這樣做其中一個結果是﹐那種電話從來就不會壞

And those days are gone.

這些時光過去了

We now have an almost unlimited variety of phones,

現在我們有無盡的選擇

especially in the world of cell phones.

尤其是手機

These are cell phones of the future.

這些是來自未來的手機

My favorite is the middle one --

我最喜歡中間那個

the MP3 player, nose hair trimmer, and creme brulee torch.

有播放音樂﹐剪鼻毛﹐還能烤布丁

And if by some chance you haven't seen that in your store yet,

如果你還沒有在商店裡看到這隻手機

you can rest assured that one day soon you will.

你大可放心﹐總有一天你會看到它

And what this does is

它的功能是

it leads people to walk into their stores asking this question.

讓人們走進店裡問﹕你們有那種功能很少的電話嗎﹖

And do you know what the answer to this question now is?

你知道答案是什麼嗎﹖

The answer is "No."

答案是“沒有“”

It is not possible to buy a cell phone that doesn't do too much.

你無法買到一支功能剛好就好的手機

So, in other aspects of life that are much more significant than buying things,

在我們人生其他那些比買東西還要更重要的部份

the same explosion of choice is true.

我們也面臨相同的“選項爆炸”

Health care -- it is no longer the case in the United States

醫療 - 現在在美國﹐你去看醫生

that you go to the doctor, and the doctor tells you what to do.

醫生不會直接告訴你該怎麼做

Instead, you go to the doctor,

你去看醫生

and the doctor tells you, "Well, we could do A, or we could do B.

醫生告訴你﹐好吧﹐我們可以選A 或是選B

A has these benefits, and these risks.

A有這些好處﹐有這些危險性

B has these benefits, and these risks. What do you want to do?"

B有這些好處﹐有這些危險性。你想怎麼做﹖

And you say, "Doc, what should I do?"

你回答﹕醫生﹐我該怎麼做!

And the doc says, "A has these benefits and risks, and B has these benefits and risks.

醫生再重複﹕A有這些利弊﹐B有這些利弊

What do you want to do?"

你想怎麼做﹖

And you say, "If you were me, Doc, what would you do?"

然後你說“醫生﹐如果你是我﹐你會怎麼做”

And the doc says, "But I'm not you."

醫生說“但我不是你。”

And the result is -- we call it "patient autonomy,"

結果是﹐我們說這是“病人的自主權”

which makes it sound like a good thing,

聽上去好像是件好事

but what it really is is a shifting of the burden and the responsibility

但實際上它不過是把做出選擇的重擔和責任

for decision-making from somebody who knows something --

從一個真正有能力的人

namely, the doctor --

也就是醫生

to somebody who knows nothing and is almost certainly sick

轉移到一個相對無知而且正在生病狀態中

and thus not in the best shape to be making decisions --

可能無法做出什麼好決定的人 -

namely, the patient.

也就是患者

There's enormous marketing of prescription drugs

處方藥的廣告很多

to people like you and me,

針對像你我這種人

which, if you think about it, makes no sense at all,

如果你認真地想﹐其實並不怎麼合理

since we can't buy them.

既然我們不能買

Why do they market to us if we can't buy them?

對我們下這麼多廣告幹嘛﹖

The answer is that they expect us to call our doctors the next morning

答案是﹐他們希望我們隔天早上打電話給我們的醫生

and ask for our prescriptions to be changed.

希望修改處方

Something as dramatic as our identity

甚至更戲劇性地﹐我們的身份

has now become a matter of choice,

都可以是一種選擇

as this slide is meant to indicate.

這投影片寫著“等孩子長大了﹐他們自己能選擇性別”

We don't inherit an identity; we get to invent it.

我們的身份不是與生俱來的﹐我們可以自己創造

And we get to re-invent ourselves as often as we like.

還能在任何時候﹐隨時“再造”

And that means that everyday, when you wake up in the morning,

這代表著每天早上﹐你醒來以後

you have to decide what kind of person you want to be.

你可以選擇你想做怎樣的人

With respect to marriage and family,

以婚姻和家庭關係為例

there was a time when the default assumption that almost everyone had

在過去﹐社會的既定想法是

is that you got married as soon as you could,

越早結婚

and then you started having kids as soon as you could.

越早有孩子越好

The only real choice was who,

唯一的選擇就是你的對象

not when, and not what you did after.

不是何時﹐也不是之後你該做什麼

Nowadays, everything is very much up for grabs.

今日﹐凡事都有可能

I teach wonderfully intelligent students,

我教導一群聰明的學生

and I assign 20 percent less work than I used to.

我給他們的功課比以前的學生少了兩成

And it's not because they're less smart,

不是因為他們比較不聰明

and it's not because they're less diligent.

也不是因為他們比較不勤奮

It's because they are preoccupied, asking themselves,

而是他們還有其他事要做﹐他們自問

"Should I get married or not? Should I get married now?

“我應該結婚嗎﹖我應該現在結婚﹖

Should I get married later? Should I have kids first, or a career first?"

還是晚點再結﹖我應該先有孩子﹐還是先有事業”

All of these are consuming questions.

這些都是很費時的問題

And they're going to answer these questions,

他們必須要回答這些問題

whether or not it means not doing all the work I assign

無論這代表著無法完成所有的功課

and not getting a good grade in my courses.

或是無法在我班上拿到好成績

And indeed they should. These are important questions to answer.

但他們的確應該思考﹐回答這些問題很重要

Work -- we are blessed, as Carl was pointing out,

工作 - 如 Carl 剛剛所說﹐我們非常幸運

with the technology that enables us

今日科技讓我們

to work every minute of every day from any place on the planet --

在這個星球上的何時何地﹐每一刻都可以工作

except the Randolph Hotel.

除了我們這次的旅館

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

There is one corner, by the way,

其實有一個角落可以上網

that I'm not going to tell anybody about, where the WiFi works.

但我不會告訴你們

I'm not telling you about it because I want to use it.

因為我想獨佔它

So what this means, this incredible freedom of choice

這些美好的選擇自由意味著什麼呢

we have with respect to work, is that we have to make a decision,

意味著我們必須做出選擇

again and again and again,

一次一次又一次地選擇

about whether we should or shouldn't be working.

像是我們應不應該工作

We can go to watch our kid play soccer,

我們可以去看孩子踢足球

and we have our cell phone on one hip,

口袋裡裝著手機

and our Blackberry on our other hip,

另一邊口袋裝著黑梅機

and our laptop, presumably, on our laps.

腿上放著電腦

And even if they're all shut off,

就算把它們全關上

every minute that we're watching our kid mutilate a soccer game,

看著你的孩子用心踢球的每一分鐘

we are also asking ourselves,

我們仍然自問著

"Should I answer this cell phone call?

“我應該接手機嗎？

Should I respond to this email? Should I draft this letter?"

我應該回這封Email嗎？我應該寫個草稿嗎？”

And even if the answer to the question is "no,"

就算所有的回答都是“不”

it's certainly going to make the experience of your kid's soccer game

這場看球經歷﹐一定會和

very different than it would've been.

過去非常不同

So everywhere we look,

無論我們往何處看

big things and small things, material things and lifestyle things,

大小事﹐各種物質和生活方式

life is a matter of choice.

人生就是做出選擇

And the world we used to live in looked like this.

我們的世界中曾經有些事情是肯定的

That is to say, there were some choices,

意思是﹐就算有些選擇性

but not everything was a matter of choice.

但不是每件事都需要做出選擇

And the world we now live in looks like this.

但現在我們的世界卻是這樣﹕十誡自己寫

And the question is, is this good news, or bad news?

我們要問﹕這究竟是好事還是壞事﹖

And the answer is yes.

解答是﹕是的

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

We all know what's good about it,

我們都知道好處在哪

so I'm going to talk about what's bad about it.

所以我想談談這有什麼壞處

All of this choice has two effects,

所有的選擇都有兩種效果

two negative effects on people.

兩種負面的效果

One effect, paradoxically,

一種是

is that it produces paralysis, rather than liberation.

選擇帶來的不是自由﹐而是癱瘓

With so many options to choose from,

一旦出現這麼多選項

people find it very difficult to choose at all.

人們發現做出選擇非常困難

I'll give you one very dramatic example of this:

讓我給你一個比較戲劇性的例子

a study that was done of investments in voluntary retirement plans.

一個就自願退休計劃投資的

A colleague of mine got access to investment records from Vanguard,

我的一個同事取得了“先鋒”這家共同基金的

the gigantic mutual fund company

投資記錄

of about a million employees and about 2,000 different workplaces.

紀錄裡包括兩千多個不同公司的一百多萬個職員

And what she found is that

她發現

for every 10 mutual funds the employer offered,

公司每增加十個基金選項

rate of participation went down two percent.

參與率就降低百分之二

You offer 50 funds -- 10 percent fewer employees participate

如果你提供50個基金選項﹐而不是5個

than if you only offer five. Why?

就會多出一成的職員放棄加入。為什麼﹖

Because with 50 funds to choose from,

因為50個基金選項

it's so damn hard to decide which fund to choose

讓人實在有夠難選

that you'll just put it off until tomorrow.

不然還是明天再想吧

And then tomorrow, and then tomorrow,

又一個明天﹐明天

and tomorrow, and tomorrow,

明天﹐明天

and of course tomorrow never comes.

當然﹐明天永遠不會來

Understand that not only does this mean

理解這件事不只意味著

that people are going to have to eat dog food when they retire

人們退休後只能吃狗食

because they don't have enough money put away,

因為他們沒有存夠錢

it also means that making the decision is so hard

這也代表著做出決定非常困難

that they pass up significant matching money from the employer.

他們寧可放棄東家提供的那部份退休金

By not participating, they are passing up as much as 5,000 dollars a year

放棄加入這些基金選項﹐等於放棄

from the employer, who would happily match their contribution.

公司本來很願意提供的5000美金

So paralysis is a consequence of having too many choices.

當我們面對太多選項﹐我們就痲痺了

And I think it makes the world look like this.

這就像這樣：“你選擇要永生吃法國沙拉醬？

(Laughter)

還是美國沙拉醬？”

You really want to get the decision right if it's for all eternity, right?

如果永遠只能吃同一種﹐你總不想選錯吧﹖

You don't want to pick the wrong mutual fund, or even the wrong salad dressing.

你不想選錯基金﹐甚至不想選錯沙拉醬

So that's one effect. The second effect is that

這是效果之一。第二是

even if we manage to overcome the paralysis and make a choice,

就算我們克服了癱瘓﹐做出選擇

we end up less satisfied with the result of the choice

我們對選擇結果的滿意度

than we would be if we had fewer options to choose from.

卻不如選項比較少的時候

And there are several reasons for this.

這有幾個原因

One of them is that with a lot of different salad dressings to choose from,

一是一旦有許多不同的沙拉醬可以選擇

if you buy one, and it's not perfect -- and, you know, what salad dressing is? --

如果你買了其一﹐卻覺得它不夠好 - 你知道沙拉醬是什麼嗎﹖

it's easy to imagine that you could have made a different choice

是一種很容易讓你覺得你可以做出更好的選擇

that would have been better. And what happens is

然後結果會更好的東西。於是

this imagined alternative induces you to regret the decision you made,

想像中的其他讓你對自己之前的選擇感到後悔

and this regret subtracts from the satisfaction you get out of the decision you made,

後悔的感覺減低了你對自己的選擇所感到的幸福感

even if it was a good decision.

就算那決定是好的

The more options there are, the easier it is to regret anything at all

選項越多﹐越容易感到後悔

that is disappointing about the option that you chose.

越容易為你的選擇感到失望

Second, what economists call "opportunity costs."

第二是經濟學家所說的機會成本

Dan Gilbert made a big point this morning

Dan Gilbert 今早提到了一個重點

of talking about how much the way in which we value things

他提到我們對事物的價值感

depends on what we compare them to.

取決于我們拿什麼和它相比

Well, when there are lots of alternatives to consider,

當有許多其他選擇的時候

it is easy to imagine the attractive features

人們很容易會想像那些當初沒選擇的選項

of alternatives that you reject,

有多麼吸引人

that make you less satisfied with the alternative that you've chosen.

讓你對你所選擇的感到不滿

Here's an example. For those of you who aren't New Yorkers, I apologize.

這裡有一個例子。如果你平常不讀紐約客雜誌﹐抱歉

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

But here's what you're supposed to be thinking.

它說出了我們的想法

Here's this couple on the Hamptons.

一對情侶在夏日度假聖地

Very expensive real estate.

非常昂貴的度假區

Gorgeous beach. Beautiful day. They have it all to themselves.

美麗的海灘﹐宜人的天氣﹐他們獨享著這片風景

What could be better? "Well, damn it,"

還有什麼會更好呢﹖”真是的﹐“

this guy is thinking, "It's August.

這個男人想著

Everybody in my Manhattan neighborhood is away.

“八月我所有鄰居都去度假了

I could be parking right in front of my building."

要是我還在市區就能輕易在公寓門口找到停車位了”

And he spends two weeks nagged by the idea

這個想法跟著他兩個禮拜

that he is missing the opportunity, day after day, to have a great parking space.

日復一日﹐他一直想著﹐要是我能有那個停車位就好了

Opportunity costs subtract from the satisfaction we get out of what we choose,

機會成本減低了我們對所選的滿意度

even when what we choose is terrific.

就算我們當初選的很好

And the more options there are to consider,

越多選項

the more attractive features of these options

越多吸引人的地方

are going to be reflected by us as opportunity costs.