are hoarding them so they can assassinate the Prime Minister of Malaysia.

Hey co-conspirators, Julian hear for DNews. More people believe in conspiracy theories

than you might think, not just your crazy uncle who lives in a shack in the woods. Multiple

polls and studies estimate that about half the population ascribes to at least one conspiracy

theory, believing that malevolent forces are manipulating events in ways that contradict

the official narrative.

Part of why so many people buy into alternative explanations is because the world is a big

scary chaotic place, and our brains don’t like that. Dartmouth neuroscientist Paul Whalen

explains that when confronted with things we have no control over like natural disasters

or terrorist attacks, our amygdalae, the part of the brain that process fear, jump-start

the parts of our brains that processes information, looking for some pattern or explanation, so

it can assess threats and plan the next step. Unfortunately this is where math teams up

with neuroscience to trick your brain. Ramsey theory is the mathematical principle that

basically says given a data set large enough, you can find just about any pattern you like.

And then the principle of confirmation bias, where we tend to only seek out information

that agrees with what we already believe, brings psychology into the mix, rounding out

the scientific conspiracy that makes you believe in conspiracies. The Psychological principle

of proportionality bias is often involved too. It’s our tendency to believe that large

events have large causes. The idea that just one guy with a gun and a good view from a

book depository could murder one of the most powerful people in the world is unsatisfying,

and we instinctively search for bigger forces at work.

But by that explanation we wouldn’t look for conspiracies if we didn’t believe in

conspiracies, and according to University of Kent psychologists, that tautology is exactly

the case; once you believe a shadowy cabal pulled the strings behind one event, it becomes

much more likely that you’ll look for shadowy cabals again and again. And herein lies another

problem: sometimes conspiracy theories turn out to be right. When the Nixon administration

was accused of burgling the Democratic National Committee’s headquarters in 1972, the whole

thing seemed far fetched. But as it turns out that was exactly what happened, and knowing

that sometimes there is a web of lies and deceit opens the door to speculation about

what else might have an alternate explanation. Was the moon landing faked? Do vaccines cause

autism? Is global warming a hoax? No matter how many times scientific evidence refutes

those claims, some people still believe it. Because we’ve been burned before. Thanks

Nixon. And often they even believe in it harder, thanks to a phenomenon called the backfire

effect where people reject contradictory evidence and double down on what they already believe.

But while there are sometimes conspiracies they usually don’t stay secret for long.

This is less thanks to internet sleuths and more thanks to the fact that people can’t

keep their mouths shut. According to Oxford University Physicist David Robert Grimes the

more people involved in a conspiracy, the faster that conspiracy will unravel. Grimes

calculated the chances that a conspirator would slip up on a given day was 1 in 250,000,

even in the most generous circumstances where everyone was dedicated to the utmost secrecy

and no outside eyes were prying. What that means is a conspiracy with over 2500 people

on board will probably only stay secret for 5 years at most. Considering that at its peak

almost 50 years ago the Apollo program employed 400,000 people, I think it’s pretty safe

to conclude we did in fact land on the moon.

One conspiracy I have actually heard is that seat belts don’t save lives. Some people

believe that if you’re not strapped down in a serious crash you’ll be thrown clear

of danger, presumably landing in a field of pillows and marshmallows.

The actual science says that If you get in a crash and you’re NOT wearing your seatbelt

you only have a 50/50 chance of surviving. No rewinds. No do-overs. So why do cops enforce

seat belt laws? Because seat belts save lives, and you might not get a second chance to buckle

up.

Even if you get one of those newfangled self driving cars, it’s still a good idea to

wear a seatbelt. Not because the cars are unsafe, but because other people are still

out there driving like maniacs! Trace explains here.

I’m sure some of you watching had a backfire effect yourselves. What conspiracy do you

think I’m covering up?