but not today, tomorrow.

但不是今天，是明天

I'm going to talk about Save More Tomorrow.

我將要聊聊為明天儲存更多錢

It's a program that Richard Thaler

有一個計劃

from the University of Chicago and I

是來自芝加哥大學理查德泰勒和我一起

devised maybe 15 years ago.

大概15年前設計的

The program, in a sense,

這個計劃，從某種程度來說，

is an example of behavioral finance

是行為經濟學的一個例子

on steroids --

也就是－

how we could really use behavioral finance.

我們如何真正利用行為經濟學

Now you might ask, what is behavioral finance?

於是你會問，甚麼是行為經濟學？

So let's think about how we manage our money.

讓我們來思考我們平時是怎樣理財的

Let's start with mortgages.

我們從房貸說起

It's kind of a recent topic,

最近我們常看到這個話題

at least in the U.S.

至少在美國是如此

A lot of people buy

很多人買

the biggest house they can afford,

在他們支付能力範圍之內最大的房子

and actually slightly bigger than that.

事實上比可支付範圍還要稍大一些

And then they foreclose.

最後他們付不起房貸

And then they blame the banks

於是他們開始埋怨銀行

for being the bad guys who gave them the mortgages.

說銀行是貸款給他們的壞人

Let's also think about

我們再想想

how we manage risks --

我們怎樣管理風險－

for example, investing in the stock market.

舉個例子，投資股票市場

Two years ago, three years ago, about four years ago,

兩年前，三年前，大約四年前

markets did well.

市場運行得很好

We were risk takers, of course.

當然那時候我們都是投機者

Then market stocks seize

接著股票市場蕭條衰敗

and we're like, "Wow.

我們會想，“噢

These losses, they feel, emotionally,

這些損失，在情感上

they feel very different

他們確實感覺很不同

from what we actually thought about it

和股市行情上漲時

when markets were going up."

我們對損失的感覺不一樣”

So we're probably not doing a great job

所以在風險投機上

when it comes to risk taking.

我們似乎也做的不太好

How many of you have iPhones?

你們有多少人用iPhone？

Anyone? Wonderful.

有人麼？非常好

I would bet many more of you

我打賭這裡擁有iPhone的人中的大多數

insure your iPhone --

都給你的iPhone買保險了

you're implicitly buying insurance by having an extended warranty.

你通過加買的質保暗中給手機買了保險

What if you lose your iPhone?

如果你丟失了你的iPhone

What if you do this?

你會怎麼辦呢？

How many of you have kids?

你們中多少人有小孩？

Anyone?

有人有嗎？

Keep your hands up

手再擧著不要放

if you have sufficient life insurance.

如果你有購買生命保險的話

I see a lot of hands coming down.

我看到很多手放下去了

I would predict,

我會預測

if you're a representative sample,

如果你是一個典型的代表

that many more of you

你們中的很多人

insure your iPhones than your lives,

為你的iPhone買了保險卻沒有為你的生命買保險

even when you have kids.

即便你已經有了小孩

We're not doing that well when it comes to insurance.

在買保險的方面我們做得也不是很好

The average American household

美國家庭平均每戶

spends 1,000 dollars a year

一年要在樂透上

on lotteries.

花費1,000美元

And I know it sounds crazy.

我知道這聽起來很瘋狂

How many of you spend a thousand dollars a year on lotteries?

你們中有多少人一年會花1,000美金買樂透？

No one.

沒有人

So that tells us that the people not in this room

那麽這告訴我們有些不在這個房間裡的人

are spending more than a thousand

買樂透超過了一千美金

to get the average to a thousand.

所以最終平均才會等於一千美金

Low-income people

特別是有些低收入戶

spend a lot more than a thousand on lotteries.

一年在樂透上花費了超過一千美金

So where does it take us?

於是這告訴我們甚麼？

We're not doing a great job managing money.

我們在理財上做得也不是很好

Behavioral finance is really a combination

行為經濟學實際上

of psychology and economics,

是心理學和經濟學的一個綜合

trying to understand

讓我們瞭解

the money mistakes people make.

為甚麼人們在金錢問題上會犯錯

And I can keep standing here

我可以站在這裡

for the 12 minutes and 53 seconds that I have left

用我剩下的12分鐘53秒

and make fun of all sorts of ways

把我們理財用的各種方法

we manage money,

當作笑話講給各位聼

and at the end you're going to ask, "How can we help people?"

到最後你會問，“我們怎樣幫助人們？”

And that's what I really want to focus on today.

所以我今天真正想關注的是

How do we take an understanding

我們如何理解

of the money mistakes people make,

人們在金錢問題上犯的錯誤

and then turning the behavioral challenges

以及怎樣把行為性挑戰

into behavioral solutions?

轉化為行為性的解決方案？

And what I'm going to talk about today

我今天要談的

is Save More Tomorrow.

是為明天節省更多

I want to address the issue

我要討論的

of savings.

是存錢這個問題

We have on the screen

在屏幕上

a representative sample

有具有代表性的

of 100 Americans.

100個美國人

And we're going to look at their saving behavior.

我們來看看他們的儲蓄習慣

First thing to notice is,

第一件需要注意的事情是

half of them

他們中一半的人

do not even have access

都沒有參加

to a 401(k) plan.

401(k)退休福利計劃

They cannot make savings easy.

存錢對他們來説很不容易

They cannot have money go away from their paycheck

他們不能把錢從他們的支票

into a 401(k) plan

押到進入401(k)計劃裏

before they see it,

他們一看到錢就花

before they can touch it.

一摸到錢就花

What about the remaining half of the people?

那麼剩下的一半人呢？

Some of them elect not to save.

一些人傾向於不存款

They're just too lazy.

他們只是太懶了

They never get around to logging into a complicated website

他們從沒有登入過一個複雜一點的網站

and doing 17 clicks to join the 401(k) plan.

點擊17下加入401(k)計劃

And then they have to decide how they're going to invest

當他們決定他們要去投資的時候

in their 52 choices,

在他們的52個選擇裡

and they never heard about what is a money market fund.

他們從未聽說過基金

And they get overwhelmed and the just don't join.

他們覺得太複雜了於是就沒加入

How many people end up saving to a 401(k) plan?

最終有多少人向該計劃存款？

One third of Americans.

只有三分之一的美國人

Two thirds are not saving now.

三分之二都不存款

Are they saving enough?

他們存得夠多嗎？

Take out those

除去那些

who say they save too little.

說自己存的太少的人

One out of 10

十分之一的人

are saving enough.

覺得自己存款夠了

Nine out of 10

十分之九

either cannot save through their 401(k) plan,

有的不能徹底執行401(k)計劃存到退休金

decide not to save -- or don't decide --

所以決定不存或是下不了決定

or save too little.

有的則是存得太少

We think we have a problem

對於那些存款太多的人

of people saving too much.

我們覺得也有一些問題

Let's look at that.

我們來看這裡

We have one person --

有一個人－

well, actually we're going to slice him in half

其實我們要把他切成一半

because it's less than one percent.

因為小於百分之一

Roughly half a percent of Americans

差不多只有百分之零點五的美國人

feel that they save too much.

認為他們存得夠多了

What are we going to do about it?

我們對此能做甚麼呢？

That's what I really want to focus on.

以下就是我真正想要關注的

We have to understand

我們必須先明白

why people are not saving,

為甚麼人們不去存款

and then we can hopefully flip

接著我們才能

the behavioral challenges

把行為性挑戰

into behavioral solutions,

轉化為行為性解決方案

and then see how powerful it might be.

並看看這會有多大效果

So let me divert for a second

所以接下來讓我稍微轉移一下話題

as we're going to identify the problems,

因爲我們必須要認清問題

the challenges, the behavioral challenges,

我們面對的挑戰，行為性挑戰

that prevent people from saving.

去找出阻止人們存錢的原因

I'm going to divert and talk about bananas and chocolate.

我要轉移到下一個話題，來談談香蕉和巧克力

Suppose we had another wonderful TED event next week.

假設下一周我們有另一場非常棒的TED活動

And during the break

休息期間

there would be a snack

將會有零食供應

and you could choose bananas or chocolate.

你可以選擇香蕉或是巧克力

How many of you think you would like to have bananas

你們中有多少人覺得你會在

during this hypothetical TED event next week?

下週假想的晚會中選擇香蕉？

Who would go for bananas?

誰會選擇香蕉？

Wonderful.

不錯

I predict scientifically

我科學地預測一下

74 percent of you will go for bananas.

百分之七十四的人會選擇香蕉

Well that's at least what one wonderful study predicted.

這至少是一個權威的科學研究預測的

And then count down the days

接著我們倒數日子

and see what people ended up eating.

最後來看看人們最後到底吃了些甚麼

The same people that imagined themselves

一個禮拜之後

eating the bananas

那些認為

ended up eating chocolates

他們會吃香蕉的人

a week later.

最終都選擇了巧克力

Self-control

自制力

is not a problem in the future.

在未來來説並不是一個問題

It's only a problem now

當巧克力離我們很近的時候

when the chocolate is next to us.

自制力就會有問題了

What does it have to do with time and savings,

這種瞬間的喜悅

this issue of immediate gratification?

和我們時間以及儲蓄有甚麼關聯？

Or as some economists call it, present bias.

或者就像一些經濟學家所講的，現在狀態的偏見

We think about saving. We know we should be saving.

我們想著如何儲蓄，我們知道我們應該存錢

We know we'll do it next year, but today let us go and spend.

我們知道明年我們會做，但是今天就讓我們花錢吧

Christmas is coming,

聖誕節要來了

we might as well buy a lot of gifts for everyone we know.

我們最好給我們認識的人買很多禮物

So this issue of present bias

所以“現在狀態的偏見”

causes us to think about saving,

導致我們考慮儲蓄

but end up spending.

最後卻把錢花掉了

Let me now talk

讓我現在來講

about another behavioral obstacle to saving

另一個關於儲蓄的行為性障礙

having to do with inertia.

這和慣性有關

But again, a little diversion

再一次，小小地轉移話題

to the topic of organ donation.

到器官捐獻上

Wonderful study comparing different countries.

有一份很完美的研究比較了不同國家之間的情況

We're going to look at two similar countries,

我們來看兩個相似的國家

Germany and Austria.

德國和奧地利

And in Germany,

在德國

if you would like to donate your organs --

如果你想要捐贈你的器官－

God forbid something really bad

上帝會禁止一些非常壞的事情

happens to you --

發生在你的身上

when you get your driving license or an I.D.,

當你拿到你的駕照或是一個ID卡

you check the box saying,

勾選一個小方格

"I would like to donate my organs."

“我願意捐贈我的器官”

Not many people like checking boxes.

不太多人願意勾選小方格

It takes effort. You need to think.

這要花費力氣，你需要想

Twelve percent do.

百分之十二的人會去勾選

Austria, a neighboring country,

在鄰國奧地利

slightly similar, slightly different.

有點相同而又有點不同

What's the difference?

有甚麼不同？

Well, you still have choice.

嗯，你還是可以選擇的

You will decide

你會選

whether you want to donate your organs or not.

是否希望捐贈器官

But when you get your driving license,

但當你得到你的駕照

you check the box

你要勾選一個方格

if you do not want to donate your organ.

“如果你不想要捐贈你的器官”

Nobody checks boxes.

基本上沒有人勾這項

That's kind of too much effort.

這太費力氣了

One percent check the box. The rest do nothing.

只有百分之一的人勾選，剩下的人甚麼都沒做

Doing nothing is very common.

放著不做是通常會發生的行為

Not many people check boxes.

沒幾個人勾選方格

What are the implications

拯救生命

to saving lives

和捐贈器官之間

and having organs available?

有什麽關聯？

In Germany, 12 percent check the box.

在德國，百分之十二的人勾選這個格子

Twelve percent are organ donors.

於是只有百分之十二的人成為器官捐贈者

Huge shortage of organs,

導致了巨大的器官短缺

God forbid, if you need one.

當你需要時上帝會禁止

In Austria, again, nobody checks the box.

在奧地利，沒有人勾選這個方格

Therefore, 99 percent of people

於是，百分之九十九的人

are organ donors.

都是器官捐贈者

Inertia, lack of action.

慣性，缺乏行動

What is the default setting

原始狀態會是什麽

if people do nothing,

如果人們甚麼都不做？

if they keep procrastinating, if they don't check the boxes?

如果他們一直拖延，如果他們不勾選方格？

Very powerful.

這是非常有效的

We're going to talk

我們即將講到

about what happens if people are overwhelmed and scared

如果人們覺得難以應付或害怕

to make their 401(k) choices.

去加入401(k)計劃

Are we going to make them automatically join the plan,

我們是讓他們自動加入計劃

or are they going to be left out?

還是就放任不管？

In too many 401(k) plans,

在太多的計劃之中

if people do nothing,

如果人們甚麼都不做

it means they're not saving for retirement,

如果他們不勾選方格

if they don't check the box.

意味著他們並沒有在儲存退休金

And checking the box takes effort.

當然勾選方格需要付出努力

So we've chatted about a couple of behavioral challenges.

以上我們談了幾項行為性挑戰

One more before we flip the challenges into solutions,

在談解決方案之前我們還要再講一個例子

having to do with monkeys and apples.

是關於猴子和蘋果的例子

No, no, no, this is a real study

不不不，這是一個真實的研究

and it's got a lot to do with behavioral economics.

這和行為經濟學有很大關係

One group of monkeys gets an apple, they're pretty happy.

一群猴子得到一個蘋果，他們很開心

The other group gets two apples, one is taken away.

另外一群猴子得到兩個蘋果，其中一個被拿走了

They still have an apple left.

他們仍然有一個蘋果

They're really mad.

不過他們非常生氣

Why have you taken our apple?

“你為甚麼拿走我們的蘋果？”

This is the notion of loss aversion.

這就叫做對於失去的厭惡感

We hate losing stuff,

我們憎恨失去東西

even if it doesn't mean a lot of risk.

即使這並不意味著很高風險

You would hate to go to the ATM,

你不會喜歡去自動提款機提款時

take out 100 dollars

提出100美金以後

and notice that you lost one of those $20 bills.

發現你丟失了其中一張20元的鈔票

It's very painful,

即使這沒什麽大不了

even though it doesn't mean anything.

但這卻很令人痛苦

Those 20 dollars might have been a quick lunch.

用這20美金本來可以吃一頓午餐

So this notion of loss aversion

所以關於失去厭惡感的想法

kicks in when it comes to savings too,

同樣也會發生在儲蓄上

because people, mentally

因為人，在精神上

and emotionally and intuitively

和情緒上直覺地認為

frame savings as a loss

存錢儲蓄是一種失去

because I have to cut my spending.

因為爲了存錢我必須減少我的支出

So we talked about

所以當我們講到

all sorts of behavioral challenges

各式各樣的行為性挑戰

having to do with savings eventually.

最終都和儲蓄有關

Whether you think about immediate gratification,

不管你是想到瞬間的滿足

and the chocolates versus bananas,

巧克力對香蕉

it's just painful to save now.

現在就去存錢是很痛苦的

It's a lot more fun

相比之下

to spend now.

即刻花錢是更快樂的

We talked about inertia and organ donations

我們談到慣性和器官捐贈

and checking the box.

還有勾選方格

If people have to check a lot of boxes

如果人麼需要勾選很多的方格

to join a 401(k) plan,

來加入401(k)計劃