that you are a soldier in the heat of battle.

你是一位身處戰場的士兵。

Maybe you're a Roman foot soldier or a medieval archer

你可能是一位羅馬步兵或是中世紀的弓箭手

or maybe you're a Zulu warrior.

也可能是祖魯族的戰士。

Regardless of your time and place,

不管你身處的年代與空間，

there are some things that are constant.

有些事情是一樣的。

Your adrenalin is elevated, and your actions are stemming

你的腎上腺素提高了，然後你的行動都被

from these deeply ingrained reflexes.

那根深蒂固地本能反應左右著。

Reflexes rooted in a need to protect yourself and your side

本能之所以存在，是為了保護你自己還有你的同伴，

and to defeat the enemy.

以及打敗敵人。

So now I'd like you to imagine playing a very different role.

那現在我想請大家再想像一下，當自己扮演另一個非常不同的角色。

That of the scout.

那就是偵察兵。

So the scout's job is not to attack or defend.

偵察兵的任務並不是去攻擊也不是防禦。

The scout's job is to understand.

他的工作是去了解敵情。

The scout is the one going out,

偵察兵是那個在戰場上奔走，

mapping the terrain, identifying potential obstacles,

描繪周遭地形、辨認潛在障礙，

and the scout may hope to learn that say, there's a bridge

當然，偵察兵可能會希望自己只要說

in a convenient location across the river.

前方有座橋位在利於過河的位置。

But above all, the scout wants to know what's really there

但整體來說，偵察兵要知道那裏到底有什麼

as accurately as possible.

並了解的越仔細越好。

And in a real actual army,

在現實生活中的部隊裡，

both the soldier and the scout are essential.

士兵與偵察兵都很重要。

But you can also think of each of these roles as a mindset.

不過你也可以把這些角色想像成一種心態。

A metaphor for how all of us process information

它像是一種隱喻，描述人類如何在日常生活裡處理訊息

and ideas in our daily lives.

以及各種想法。

And what I'm going to argue today is that having good judgment,

所以我今天想要討論的事情是，不論是做出好的判斷、

and making accurate predictions, making good decisions

準確地做出預測、或是產出好的決定，

is mostly about which mindset you're in.

大部分都與你所處的心態有關。

So, to illustrate these mindsets in action,

所以，當我們想把這些心態在現實中闡明，

I'm going to take you back to 19th century France

我需要帶大家回到十九世紀的法國，

where this innocuous looking piece of paper launched

當時就是因為這張普通的紙

one of the biggest political scandals in history.

引發史上最大的政治醜聞之一。

It was discovered in 1894 by officers

這張紙是在1894年時，

in the French general staff.

由一群法國參謀總部的軍官所發現。

And it was torn up in a wastepaper basket

它當時原本只是一堆在廢紙簍中的廢紙，

but when they pieced it back together, they discovered

但是，當官兵們將其拼湊完整後，

that someone in their ranks had been selling military secrets

發現在他們同樣階級的軍官裡，有人一直在販賣軍事機密

to Germany.

給德軍。

So they launched a big investigation

所以，他們展開大規模的調查，

and their suspicions quickly converged

然後他們很快地發現，

on this man, Albert Dreyfus.

這個人，艾伯特 ● 德雷福斯，有著最大的嫌疑。

He had a sterling record.

他有著優良的紀錄。

No past history of wrongdoing,

在過去也沒有任何過失，

no motive as far as they could tell.

基本上他們找不出任何的犯罪動機。

But Dreyfus was the only Jewish officer at that rank in the Army

不過，德雷福斯是當時在軍中唯一一位，符合嫌疑人軍階的猶太軍官，

and unfortunately, at this time,

並且很不巧的是，當時的

the French army was highly anti-semitic.

法國軍隊是非常地反猶太人的。

So they compared Dreyfus's handwriting to that on the memo

所以他們將德雷福斯的筆跡與那張備忘錄上的比對

and concluded that it was a match.

並認定那就是他的字跡。

Even though outside professional handwriting experts

即便軍方以外的字跡專家

were much less confident in the similarity, but never mind that.

對於鑑定結果都不敢打包票，不過沒關係。

They went and searched Dreyfus's apartment

他們搜索德雷福斯的公寓，

looking for any signs of espionage.

試圖尋找與間諜有關的一絲證據。

They went through his files and they didn't find anything.

他們翻遍了他的所有文件，卻都一無所獲。

And this just convinced them more that Dreyfus was not only guilty,

但這一切卻更讓他們堅信，德雷福斯不只是有罪，

but sneaky as well, because clearly he had hidden all of the evidence

而且還很狡猾。因為很明顯地，他趕在他們搜查前，

before they had managed to get to it.

把所有的證據都藏了起來。

Next, they went and looked through his personal history

緊接著，他們轉向搜查他的私人紀錄，

for any incriminating details.

希望能找出任何微小的罪證。

They talked to his teachers.

他們約談他的老師。

They found that he had studied foreign languages in school

發現德雷福斯曾在學校修習外語，

which clearly showed a desire to conspire with foreign governments

很明顯地展現未來與外國政府合謀的

later in life.

企圖心。

His teachers also said that Dreyfus had a good memory

他的老師們更說德雷福斯有著絕佳的記憶力，

and was known for having a good memory.

並以這項才能著名。

Which was highly suspicious, right?

同樣地，聽起來很可疑，對吧？

You know, because a spy has to remember a lot of things.

你知道的，因為間諜要有能力記住很多事情。

So, the case went to trial and Dreyfus was found guilty.

所以，這件案子進入審判後，法官判德雷福斯有罪。

And afterwards they took him out into this public square

之後他們把德雷福斯帶到市民廣場，

and ritualistically tore his insignia from his uniform

儀式般地將他的肩章從制服上摘除，

and broke his sword and two.

並將他的劍折斷。

This is called the degradation of Dreyfus.

這被稱作是德雷福斯的免職。

And they sentenced him to life imprisonment

而後，他們判他終身監禁，

on the aptly named Devil's Island

到那個同樣名為"惡魔"的島上服刑，

which is this barren rock off the coast of South America.

那是一座位在南美海岸的荒蕪之島。

So there he went.

他就這樣去了那裏。

And there he spent his days alone writing letters

被單獨監禁的每一天，他不斷地

and letters to the French government

寫信給法國政府。

begging them to reopen his case so they could discover his innocence.

懇求政府能夠重新調查他的案子以還他清白。

But for the most part, France considered the matter closed.

不過基本上，法國政府認為這件事情已經結案了。

So one thing that's really interesting to me

但在這裡，針對這個德雷福斯事件，

about the Dreyfus Affair is this question

有一個問題讓我覺得很有意思就是，

of why the officers were so convinced

為什麼這些軍官會這麼確信

that Dreyfus was guilty.

德雷福斯就是那個犯人。

I mean you might even assume that they were setting him up.

我的意思是，你甚至可以假設其實是這些軍官陷害他的。

They were intentionally framing him,

他們有意栽贓給他。

but historians don't think that's what happened.

但是史學家們並不這麼認為。

As far as we can tell, the officers genuinely believed

就我們所了解的，這些軍官是真的相信

that the case against Dreyfus was strong.

對於德雷福斯的指控是強而有力的。

Which you know, makes you wonder what does it say

但是這也會讓你開始思考，當我們能用

about the human mind that we can find such paltry evidence

如此微薄的證據去強定一個人的罪時，

to be compelling enough to convict a man?

我們該如何解釋這其中的心理運作？

Well, this is a case of what scientists call

好，這就是科學家所稱的

"motivated reasoning".

「動機性推理」。

It's this phenomenon which our unconscious motivations,

這種心理現象描述人類在理解資訊時，

our desires and fears shape the way we interpret information.

會受到潛意識的動機、慾望以及恐懼所影響。

So some information, some ideas feel like our allies

所以有些讓人感覺是屬同盟的資訊及想法，

and we want them to win.

我們就會希望它們獲勝。

We want to defend them.

會想保護它們。

And other information or ideas are the enemy

然後把其他訊息與想法視為敵人，

and we want to shoot them down.

並想擊倒它們。

So this is why I call motivated reasoning, "soldier mindset."

所以這也是為甚麼我會把動機性推理稱作「士兵心態」。

And probably most of you have never persecuted

我相信大部分在現場的各位，大概都從未以叛國罪

a French Jewish officer for high treason I assume,

來迫害一位法籍猶太裔的軍官。

but maybe you've followed sports or politics.

不過，你也許有看球賽或瘋政治的經驗。

So you might have noticed that when the referee judges

你可能會注意到，當場上的裁判作出判決，

that your team committed a foul for example,

舉例來說，你支持的隊伍被判犯規，

you're highly motivated to find reasons why he's wrong.

你會很想找出裁判錯判的原因。

But if he judges that the other team committed a foul - awesome!

不過，當裁判是判敵隊犯規的時候，太好了！

That's a good call.

那球判的真好！

Let's not examine it too closely.

大家不用太認真去檢查啦。

Or, maybe you've read an article or study

或者，也許你曾讀到一篇文章或研究，

that examined some controversial policy

都是有關於一些爭議性的政策，

like capital punishment.

像是死刑。

And as researchers have demonstrated,

就像研究者所論證的，

if you support capital punishment,

當你是支持死刑，

and the study shows that is not effective,

然後研究報告顯示死刑無效，

then you're highly motivated to find all the reasons

你就會很想找出所有的原因，

why the study was poorly designed.

去證明這個研究根本設計有問題。

But if it shows that capital punishment works - awesome!

不過如果這份研究指出死刑有效，太棒了！

It's a good study. And vice versa.

這是一份好的研究。反之亦然。

If you don't support capital punishment, same thing.

那當你是不支持死刑，也會有相同的情況。

Our judgment is just strongly influenced unconsciously

我們所做出的判斷都受到潛意識中，

by which side we want to win.

那股希望誰勝的念頭深深影響。

And this is ubiquitous.

這種情況是很常見的。

This shapes how we think about our health, relationships,

這種現象影響我們對健康、感情的思考方式，

how we decide how to vote, what we consider fair or ethical,

也影響我們如何決定投票、如何判斷公平或道德。

and what's most scary to me about motivated reasoning

但更讓我感到害怕的是，動機性推理

or soldier mindset, is how unconscious it is.

或稱士兵心態，它是如此無意識的一種心態。

We can think we're being objective and fair-minded

我們可以意識到自己是客觀與公正的，

and still wind up ruining the life of an innocent man.

但是卻仍毀掉了一位無辜者的一生。

However, fortunately for Dreyfus, his story is not over.

但對於德雷福斯來說，值得慶幸的是，他的故事還沒結束。

This is Colonel Picquart.

這是 Picquart上校。

He is another high-ranking officer in the French army,

他是另一位法國軍隊的高階軍官，

and like most people, he assumed Dreyfus was guilty.

跟大多數的人一樣，認為德雷福斯是有罪的。

Also like most people in the Army,

他也像軍中大部分的人一樣，

he was at least casually anti-Semitic.

至少算是反猶太人的。

But at a certain point, Picquart began to suspect

不過在某種程度上，Picqaurt開始懷疑，

what if we are all wrong about Dreyfus?

會不會我們都誤會德雷福斯了？

And what happened was, he had discovered evidence

其實事實上，Picqaurt已經找到證據，

that the spying for Germany had continued

能證明德國間諜的行動，

even after Dreyfus was in prison.

在德雷福斯入獄後仍持續進行。

And he had also discovered that another officer in the Army

而且他還發現軍中的另外一名軍官，

had handwriting that perfectly matched the memo.

其字跡與備忘錄上的字跡完全符合。

Much closer than Dreyfus's handwriting.

比德雷福斯的筆跡還像。

So he brought these discoveries to his superiors

所以他將這些發現上交給上級，

but to his dismay, they either didn't care,

但令他沮喪的是，上級根本不在乎，

or came up with elaborate rationalizations to explain his findings,

甚至想出其他理由來合理化Picquart的發現，

like, "Well, all you've really shown, Picquart, is that there is another spy

像是，「好，就從你所提出的事證，顯示軍中有另一個間諜

who learned how to mimic Dreyfus's handwriting,

會模仿德雷福斯的筆跡，

and he picked up the torch of spying after Dreyfus left.

他在德雷福斯走後，接下了諜報的任務。

But Dreyfus is still guilty."

不過德雷福斯還是有罪的。」

Eventually, Picquart managed to get Dreyfus exonerated.

最後，Picquart終於讓德雷福斯無罪釋放。

But it took him 10 years,

但他花了十年的時間，

and for part of that time, he himself was in prison

而且當中有幾年，他自己也在獄中，

for the crime of disloyalty to the Army.

罪名是對軍隊不忠。

So, you know, a lot of people feel

那麼，你知道，很多人覺得

like Picquart can't really be the hero of this story.

Picquart不能真的算是這則故事的英雄。

Because he was an anti-Semite and that's bad.

因為他是個反猶份子，這是不對的。

Which I agree with, but personally, for me,

這點我同意，但是我個人認為

the fact that Picquant was anti-Semitic

就是因為Picquart是反猶太人

actually makes his actions more admirable to me.

反而更讓我對他的行為感到欽佩。

Because he had the same prejudices, the same reasons

因為他有著與其他人相同的成見與理由，

to be biased as his fellow officers,

去被偏見所左右，就像他的同僚那樣。

but his motivation to find the truth and uphold it just trumped all of that.

但是他努力尋找真相並堅持到底的行為，早已勝過一切。

So to me,

所以對我而言，

Picquart is a poster child for what I call "scout mindset."

Picquart是所謂「偵察兵心態」的典範。

It's the drive not to make one idea win or another lose,

一個不讓任何一方的想法勝或負，

but just to see what's really there as honestly and accurately as you can,

而是盡可能忠實且準確地去看事情的真相，

even if it's not pretty or convenient or pleasant.

即便真相可能不太美麗或容易取得，甚至令人難受。

And this mindset is what I'm personally passionate about.

而這就是我個人最熱愛的一種心態。

And what I've spent the last few years examining

我花了最近幾年的時間去檢驗

and trying to figure out what causes scout mindset.

並試著找出偵察兵心態的成因。

You know, why are some people sometimes at least,

就是為什麼總有些人有時甚至無論如何

able to cut through their own prejudices and biases and motivations

都能摒棄自己的成見、偏見以及背後的動機

and just to see the facts and evidence

並盡可能客觀地

as objectively as they can?

去看事實與證據？

And the answer is emotional.

答案跟情感有關。

So, just as the soldier mindset is rooted in emotions

就像士兵心態是建構在下列幾種情感之上，

like defensiveness or tribalism, scout mindset is too.

像是防禦自我或是部落主義，偵察兵心態也是。

It's just rooted in different emotions.

只是建構在不同的情感上。

So for example, scouts are curious.

舉例來說，偵查兵是好奇的。

They're more likely to say that they feel pleasure

當學到新資訊或等不及要解決一個難題時，

when they learn new information or an itch to solve a puzzle.

他們比較容易因此感到快樂。

They're more likely to feel intrigued

當他們遇到事情是矛盾的或符合期待時，

when they encounter something that contradicts their expectations.

他們也比較容易對此感到好奇。

Scouts also have different values.

除此之外，偵察兵還有著不同的價值觀。

They are more likely to say that they think it's virtuous

他們比較有可能會說，去試探自己的信仰

to test your own beliefs and they're less likely to say

並沒有不對，然後他們比較不可能會說，

that someone who changes his mind seems weak.

有人改變心意是懦弱的表現。

And above all, scouts are grounded.

總而言之，偵察兵算是乖乖牌。

Which means that their self-worth

也就是說，他們身為一個人的自我價值

as a person isn't tied to how right or wrong they are

並不是與自己在某些議題上

about any particular topic.

有幾分的對或錯有關。

So, you know, they can believe that capital punishment works

所以，他們可以一開始相信死刑是有效的，

and if studies come out showing that it doesn't, they can say,

但是當所有研究指出死刑無效，他們會這麼說，

"Huh. Looks like I might be wrong.

「嗯，看起來我之前可能是錯的。

Doesn't mean I'm bad or stupid."

但不代表我很糟或很笨。」

So these traits, this cluster of traits

所以這些特質，這一整組的特質

is what researchers have found -

就是研究者所發現，

and I've also found anecdotally - predicts good judgment.

同時也是我在前面那件軼事中所發現的，能預測出好的判斷。

And the key takeaway I want to leave you with

而那關鍵的重點，也就是我希望帶給你們的

about those traits is that they're primarily

基本上這些特質

not about how smart you are, or about how much you know.

跟你有多聰明或有多博學無關。

In fact they don't correlate very much with IQ at all.

事實上，它們跟智商基本上一點關係也沒有。

They're about how you feel.

它們跟你的感受有關。

So, there's a quote that I keep coming back to by Saint-Exupery.

那麼在這裡，有一段來自聖修伯里的話，我總是記在心上，

He is the author of "The Little Prince."

他是「小王子」這本書的作者。

And he said, "If you want to build a ship,

他說「如果你想建造一艘船，

don't drum up your men to collect wood and give orders

千萬別先急著把人集合起來找木頭、下指令、

and distribute the work.

幫他們分配工作，

Instead, teach them to yearn for the vast and endless sea."

相反的，你是要先讓他們憧憬那片一望無際的海洋。」

In other words, I claim if we want

換而言之，我主張如果我們想

to really improve our judgment as individuals and as societies,

真的改善我們的判斷能力，不論是個人或是整個社會，

what we need most is not more instruction in logic or rhetoric

我們最需要的並不是更多的邏輯性的、花言巧語的、

or probability or economics,

可能性的甚至是經濟性的指示，

even though those things are quite valuable.

即便這些東西有著它的價值。

But what we most need

但是我們最需要的東西

to use those principles well, is scout mindset.

能夠把那些原則做好的關鍵是偵察兵心態。

We need to change the way we feel.

我們需要改變我們感受的方式。

We need to learn how to feel proud instead of ashamed

當我們意識到我們可能誤會了某些事情，

when we notice we might have been wrong about something.

我們需要學習如何為此感到驕傲而非羞愧。

We need to learn how to feel intrigued instead of defensive

我們需要學習如何產生好奇心而非防禦心

when we encounter some information

特別是當我們面對一些

that contradicts our beliefs.

與我們理念相違背的資訊時。

So, the question I want to leave you with,

在最後，我有問題想留給大家思考，

is what do you most yearn for?

那就是你最渴望的東西是什麼？

Do you yearn to defend your own beliefs,

你渴望捍衛自己的信念嗎？

or do you yearn to see the world as clearly as you possibly can?

或者，你渴望盡可能的看清楚這個世界嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝大家。

(Applause)

(掌聲)