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There are still lots of things about space
關於太空有許多事情
that we may never be able to answer,
可能永遠無法解答
like is time travel possible?
像時間旅行有可能嗎?
Or are aliens living somewhere else in the Milky Way?
或銀河系裡有外星人嗎?
But there is one thing I believe about space:
但我相信一件關於太空的事:
Space is trying to kill me.
太空想殺我
Space isn't out to get me personally.
它不只想殺我
It's also trying to kill you and everybody else.
也想殺你和每個人
Think about it.
想想看
Space doesn't naturally have what we need to survive
太空不會自然供應生存必需品
when we travel there:
讓我們進行太空旅行
no air,
沒有空氣、
it's too hot
有時太熱、
or too cold,
有時太冷、
no ozone to protect us from those nasty UV rays, either.
沒有臭氧層可阻擋惱人的紫外線
This all sounds bad,
這一切聽起來都很糟
but what can space really do to me
但太空能對我怎樣
if I stay on Earth?
如果我待在地球上呢?
What we need to understand is that objects in space
我們要知道,太空中的物體
can cause people to think their days are numbered,
會讓人覺得日子已屈指可數
even when there are events on Earth
即使地球還有許多事
that can hurt or kill us
在太空動手前
before something from space does.
早就能讓我受傷或死亡
So, what are the odds that one of these objects
所以,太空物體有多少機率
will really affect Earth
會真的影響地球、
and you
你、
and me
我、
in our lifetime?
在我們一生中?
Well, we can take what we know about the universe
我們可以用對宇宙的了解
to try and figure that out.
試著找出答案
You might have heard stories
你也許聽過許多
about asteroids hitting the Earth.
小行星撞擊地球的故事
That would be pretty bad.
那一定很糟
Scientists think asteroids might have killed off
科學家認為小行星可能造成了
most of the dinosaurs.
大多數恐龍的滅絕
Sounds like something we should worry about, right?
聽起來我們該要擔心,對吧?
Well, astronomers can now watch asteroids in space
天文學家已能觀察太空中的小行星
and see them coming using complex computer models
然後用複雜的電腦模型
to predict the deadly rock's path.
預測致命岩石的路徑
For a while, the reported odds
有一陣子,預測
that asteroid Apophis would strike Earth in 2036
小行星阿波菲斯 (Apophis) 2036 年撞擊地球的機率
were once 1 in 625.
是 1/625
But, after updating their data,
但更新數據後
astronomers now say the chances are extremely low.
天文學家現在認為,可能性極低
Okay, what about the sun?
好吧,那太陽呢?
Hollywood movies like to pick on our sun
好萊塢電影喜歡在太陽上作文章
by showing Earth destroyed by solar flares
上演太陽閃焰毀滅地球
or the sun dying out,
或是太陽燃燒殆盡
which would cause Earth to freeze.
導致地球冰凍
Astronomers predict our sun contains enough gas
天文學家預測太陽有足夠的燃料
to make energy for another 3 to 5 billion years.
再提供三十到五十億年能量
So, in 3 to 5 billion years,
所以,在三十到五十億年後
if people still exist on Earth,
如果地球上還有人
they'll have to deal with that.
他們就要面對這個問題
But today, well, we're safe.
但目前我們很安全
Sometimes the sun does shoot flares at Earth,
有時太陽的確會朝地球發出閃焰
but the magnetic fields surrounding our planet
但環繞地球的磁場
blocks most of that radiation.
擋住了大部份的輻射
The radiation that does get through
真正通過的輻射
creates things like the Aurora Borealis.
造成了極光之類的現象
Gigantic solar flares can mess with our satellites
巨型的太陽閃焰會干擾人造衛星
and electrical equipment,
還有電子儀器
but the chances of it killing you are pretty slim.
但殺了你的機會微乎其微
Okay, what about that supermassive black hole
好吧,超大質量黑洞不就在
in the middle of our galaxy?
我們銀河系的中心嗎?
What happens to Earth,
地球和我們
and us,
會怎麼樣
when it pulls us in?
如果被吸進去呢?
After all, it is supermassive.
畢竟它是超級黑洞
Nope, not going to happen.
不,這不會發生
That's one big object that can't bother us.
這個大傢伙沒辦法影響我們
How can we be so sure?
我們為什麼這麼確定?
Our solar system is on the edge of the Milky Way
我們的太陽系,在銀河系的邊緣
while the nearest supermassive black hole
而最接近的超大質量黑洞
is about 26,000 light years from Earth.
離地球將近兩萬六千光年
That means we aren't on that black hole's menu.
這表示我們不在黑洞的菜單上
So, you still think space objects are trying to kill you
你還是認為太空想殺了你嗎,
even after what I've told you so far?
即使我說了這麼多?
I think I've even convinced myself
我覺得我幾乎已經說服自己
that odds are really good
機率相當低
that space and the objects up there
太空、還有太空中的物體
won't kill me after all.
終究不會殺了我
But I'll probably keep looking up
但我可能還是會持續看著天空
just to make sure nothing is headed my way.
只是想確定沒有東西朝我飛來