It's called curtailment, and it's the biggest obstacle to weaning the world off fossil fuels.

縮減 (再生能源) 是最不利於阻斷世界各國對石化燃料需求的行為

Curtailment actually happens when we produce too much wind or solar power

此縮減的措施通常會在風力或太陽能出現生產過剩時進行

at certain times of the day and we have to just — shut it down.

而在這之後的某段期間便會直接停止綠色能源生產

But what if we sent that extra electricity into giant batteries,

不過試想我們是否可將過剩的電力傳送儲存至巨型電池

to use when the sun goes down or the wind stops blowing?

以便日後一旦太陽下山後或是風停時使用呢？

That day just might be coming sooner than you think.

這一天的到來的速度會超乎你的想像

The easiest way to curtail curtailment would be a massive explosion of energy storage. Ideally: batteries.

改善縮減現狀最簡單的方式就是大規模使用能源儲存裝置設備，而最理想的型態是「電池」

There's just one problem. Batteries are still way too expensive.

不過做成電池的成本現階段仍然太昂貴

Take a place like Texas. A quarter of the electricity from the Lone Star state comes from wind.

舉德州為例，這個孤星之州 (德州別名) 有四分之一的電力都是來自於風力發電

When the wind dies down, Texans just fire up a natural-gas power plant to make up the difference.

處於無風狀態時，德州當地就會啟用天然瓦斯廠提供電力

Battery prices would have to drop by half in order to compete with those Texan natural gas plants.

蓄電電池的價格可能要對半砍才有辦法和德州當地的天然瓦斯廠相互競爭

Today, less than one tenth of one percent of the world's electricity spends any time in a storage battery,

至今世界上只有不到十分之一或百分之一的電力來自於電池

and even by 2040

依目前的態勢即便是到 2040 年也無法改善

the best forecasts say that batteries will make up just three percent of the world's power supply.

世界頂尖的預測機構也評估電池電力最多只會佔總供電的百分之三

But consider the experience curve.

然而就經驗曲線而言：

Renewable energy is a technology, not a fuel, so prices follow what economists call an experience curve:

可再生能源是一種技術而不是一種燃料，因此可再生能源的價格可以符合經濟學家所稱的

the more solar panels we make, the better we get at making them.

經驗曲線變化：生產越多的太陽能板，生產成本就會越便宜

In fact, every time the number of panels in the world doubles, the cost to make them drops by 28 percent.

實際上，每當世界上所生產的太陽能板數量翻一倍，成本就會下降百分之 28

Solar power just recently became the cheapest electricity in the world, and it's only going to get cheaper.

太陽能發電直到近年來才成為了全世界最便宜的電力發電方式，並且只會更加便宜

And it turns out, the same thing is happening with batteries.

太陽能發電的結果，同理也適用於電池

As we build more — with electric cars and electricity storage — the cost of batteries plummets.

只要我們製造生產出更多電動車和電力儲存裝置，電池的生產成本就會快速下降

It's already dropped 80 percent in the last decade, and could do the same in the next.

近十年來電池的生產成本已降低了百分之 80，在接下來十年的熱潮中勢必成本會更低

Boom. At those prices, battery storage in a place like Texas suddenly becomes a no-brainer.

一旦電池價格下降到那樣低的程度時，電池在即使德州這樣的地方也會變成一點也不稀奇的東西

We're already starting to see it happen in places where electricity is expensive.

這樣的情形我們已開始在電力昂貴的地區開始發現了

In Hawaii, the rainforest island of Kauai swapped its fossil-fuel power for solar-plus-batteries,

例如，夏威夷已將雨林島嶼考艾島的石化燃料發電全部換成了太陽能發電加儲電設備

And Tesla has made deals in California and Australia to install the world's biggest battery fields.

特斯拉也已和加州和澳洲達成協議要設置世界上最大的電池廠區

The battery baron – Elon Musk  says his newly built, massively populated gigafactory

電池大亨伊隆·馬斯克表示他大量擴增新建的超級電池工廠

will spit out batteries 'faster than bullets from a machine gun,'

可「猶如機關槍發射子彈般」以極快的速度生產出電池

It will single-handedly double the global supply.

這將一舉將全球的電池供應數量翻倍

And he wants to start building at least two more Gigafactories in 2018.

馬斯克希望能在 2018 年能開始再新建至少兩座超級電池工廠

But Musk is in for an arms race.

然而馬斯克加入的是場軍備競賽

Chinese companies say they'll build capacity for about three gigafactories worth of batteries by 2021.

中國企業揚言 2021 年將要等同於三座超級電池工廠產能的電池

Samsung, LG Chem and others are also joining the fray.

三星、樂金化學以及其他公司也陸續加入戰局

Now, this is not a done deal.

鹿死誰手尚未知曉

If the battery revolution is going to work, tens of millions of people must

假若電池革命順利成功，則有幾億的人們將在未來十年

switch to electric cars over the next decade to feed the experience curve.

必須改用電動車以符合經驗曲線

But there are also new technologies coming soon

不過還有其他新技術即將出現

like silicon anodes, solid state batteries, and lithium air that could skip us ahead on the experience curve

例如矽陽極電池、固態電池以及鋰空氣電池，這些新技術可使電池發展直接跳越經驗曲線

by more than a decade, making battery-powered trains, ships and even airplanes possible.

再過十幾年，就有可能製造出電動火車、電動船甚至是電動飛機

So, imagine a world where where city skies are clear of pollution, and where electricity is cheap and abundant.

大家現在可以想像一下一個都市天空清淨無汙染且電力便宜且充沛的世界

It's not crazy to assume that 20 years from now, over half the world's power

這不是癡人說夢，預計從現在算起的 20 年，世界上會有超過半數的電力

will come from nature, backed by batteries.

都是來自綠能，並且以電池的方式提供

And it all might be happening sooner than you think.

這一切實現的速度都會超乎你的想像