ever since I stumbled across a fairly obscure academic article

我著迷於作物的多樣性已經有35年之久，

by a guy named Jack Harlan.

因為我偶然讀了一篇傑克卡蘭

And he described the diversity within crops --

所寫的艱澀的學術論文。

all the different kinds of wheat and rice and such --

他是這樣來描述作物的多樣性的 --

as a genetic resource.

小麥和稻米等等的所有品種--

And he said, "This genetic resource," --

都是一種基因資源。

and I'll never forget the words --

他說到，“基因資源” --

"stands between us and catastrophic starvation

而我從來沒有忘記這些話 --

on a scale we cannot imagine."

“我們和災難性饑餓間

I figured he was either really on to something,

的距離是我們無法想像的。”

or he was one of these academic nutcases.

我想他一定是有所執著，

So, I looked a little further,

或者他只是個書呆子。

and what I figured out was that he wasn't a nutcase.

所以，我再往下看，

He was the most respected scientist in the field.

然後我發現他並不是書呆子，

What he understood was that biological diversity -- crop diversity --

他是這領域最受尊敬的科學家。

is the biological foundation of agriculture.

他所理解的生物多樣性 -- 作物多樣性 --

It's the raw material, the stuff, of evolution in our agricultural crops.

是農業的生物學基礎，

Not a trivial matter.

是農作物進化的原材料，

And he also understood that that foundation was crumbling,

這不是微不足道的事情。

literally crumbling.

他也體認到到這基礎搖搖欲墜，

That indeed, a mass extinction was underway

真的是搖搖欲墜。

in our fields, in our agricultural system.

農作物的確在我們的農業系統、

And that this mass extinction was taking place

在我們的農地裡大量地滅絕。

with very few people noticing

但很少人注意到

and even fewer caring.

農作物正在滅絕，

Now, I know that many of you don't stop

更沒人在乎。

to think about diversity in agricultural systems

現在，我知道你們還有很多人在不停地

and, let's face it, that's logical.

思考這農業系統中的多樣性，

You don't see it in the newspaper every day.

承認吧，這很合理。

And when you go into the supermarket, you certainly don't see a lot of choices there.

你不會每天在報紙上看到它，

You see apples that are red, yellow, and green and that's about it.

而當你去超市時，你當然不會察覺到那裏有多少選擇。

So, let me show you a picture of one form of diversity.

你看到紅的、黃的、綠的蘋果，就只是這些了。

Here's some beans,

所以，讓我來給你們看看代表多樣性的照片，

and there are about 35 or 40 different

這裏有一些豆子，

varieties of beans on this picture.

照片上顯示了大概有35-40種

Now, imagine each one of these varieties as being distinct from another

不同的豆子。

about the same way as a poodle from a Great Dane.

現在，想像一下，這些品種中的每一種

If I wanted to show you a picture of all the dog breeds in the world,

都可以像我們區分獅子狗和大丹狗一樣，被區分出來。

and I put 30 or 40 of them on a slide, it would take about 10 slides

如果我想給你們看看世界上所有狗的品種，

because there about 400 breeds of dogs in the world.

每一張投影片放上30-40個品種，會用去10張投影片，

But there are 35 to 40,000 different varieties of beans.

因為世界上有大概400種狗。

So if I were to going to show you all the beans in the world,

但是世界上有3萬5千到4萬種不同種類的豆子，

and I had a slide like this, and I switched it every second,

如果我要向你們展示世界上所有的豆子，

it would take up my entire TED talk,

運用同樣的投影片，每1秒放一張，

and I wouldn't have to say anything.

光這就會用去我所有的TED演講時間，

But the interesting thing is that this diversity -- and the tragic thing is --

更不用說演講了。

that this diversity is being lost.

但是多樣性有其有趣又可悲的地方--

We have about 200,000 different varieties of wheat,

多樣性正在消失。

and we have about 2 to 400,000 different varieties of rice,

世界上大概有20萬種不同的麥子品種、

but it's being lost.

20萬至40萬種不同的稻米品種，

And I want to give you an example of that.

但是正在消失。

It's a bit of a personal example, in fact.

我想給你們看個例子，

In the United States, in the 1800s -- that's where we have the best data --

實際上，是我親身的體驗。

farmers and gardeners were growing 7,100

在美國，在18世紀 --從那時開始我們才開始紀錄 --

named varieties of apples.

農民和園藝工作者曾種植著7千1百種

Imagine that. 7,100 apples with names.

不同名稱的蘋果。

Today, 6,800 of those are extinct,

想像一下，7千1百種不同名字的蘋果。

no longer to be seen again.

現在，有6千8百種已經滅絕了，

I used to have a list of these extinct apples,

再也看不到了。

and when I would go out and give a presentation,

我平常有一份滅絕蘋果的清單，

I would pass the list out in the audience.

當我出去要辦講座的時候，

I wouldn't tell them what it was, but it was in alphabetical order,

我就會把名單分給聽眾。

and I would tell them to look for their names, their family names,

我不會告訴他們這是什麼，但是這是按字母排列的，

their mother's maiden name.

我會讓他們去找找自己的名字，他們自己的姓，

And at the end of the speech, I would ask, "How many people have found a name?"

他們母親的姓。

And I never had fewer than two-thirds of an audience hold up their hand.

就在講座結束的時候，我會問，”有多少人找到自己的名字？“

And I said, "You know what? These apples come from your ancestors,

每次至少有三分之二的人舉了手。

and your ancestors gave them the greatest honor they could give them.

然後我說道，”你們知道嗎？這些蘋果是從你們祖先傳下來的，

They gave them their name.

而且你們的祖先把他們最寶貴的東西給了它們，

The bad news is they're extinct.

他們用自己的名字為蘋果命名，

The good news is a third of you didn't hold up your hand. Your apple's still out there.

不幸的是，它們已經滅絕了。

Find it. Make sure it doesn't join the list."

好消息是， 還有三分之一的人沒有舉手，你們的蘋果還存在世上。

So, I want to tell you that the piece of the good news is

找找看，確定他們不會加入這份清單。“

that the Fowler apple is still out there.

所以我想告訴你們的好消息是，

And there's an old book back here,

福勒蘋果還存在。

and I want to read a piece from it.

而且這裏有一本很古老的書，

This book was published in 1904.

我想唸其中一段給你們聽，

It's called "The Apples of New York" and this is the second volume.

這本書出版於1904年，

See, we used to have a lot of apples.

叫做”紐約的蘋果“，這是第二卷，

And the Fowler apple is described in here --

所以，我們以前還是有很多蘋果品種的。

I hope this doesn't surprise you --

它是這樣描寫福勒蘋果的 --

as, "a beautiful fruit."

我希望不要嚇著你 --

(Laughter)

”一種美麗的水果“

I don't know if we named the apple or if the apple named us, but ...

（笑）

but, to be honest, the description goes on

我真不知道是我們幫蘋果命名，還是蘋果幫我們命名，但是...

and it says that it "doesn't rank high in quality, however."

但是，說實話，這個描述還有下半段，

And then he has to go even further.

它說，”但是品質並不好，“

It sounds like it was written by an old school teacher of mine.

然後這本書還說得更深入，

"As grown in New York, the fruit usually fails to develop properly in size and quality

聽起來像是我以前學校老師給我的評語一樣，

and is, on the whole, unsatisfactory."

”生長在紐約，這種水果不論在大小或品質上，

(Laughter)

都發展得不好，總的來說，不讓人滿意。“

And I guess there's a lesson to be learned here,

（笑）

and the lesson is: so why save it?

我想這裏我們學到了一課，

I get this question all the time. Why don't we just save the best one?

那就是：那為什麼還挽救它？

And there are a couple of answers to that question.

我一直被問到這個問題，為什麼我們不只保留最好的？

One thing is that there is no such thing as a best one.

針對這個問題，我準備了幾個答案，

Today's best variety is tomorrow's lunch for insects or pests or disease.

其中之一是，沒有什麼所謂最好的品種，

The other thing is that maybe that Fowler apple

今天最好的品種就是明天害蟲或疾病的午餐；

or maybe a variety of wheat that's not economical right now

另外一個原因，就是也許福勒蘋果

has disease or pest resistance

或麥子的其它品種在今天來說沒有價值，

or some quality that we're going to need for climate change that the others don't.

但未來可能有著別的品種沒有的

So it's not necessary, thank God,

對疾病害蟲免疫或對氣候變化的適應性的特性。

that the Fowler apple is the best apple in the world.

所以福勒蘋果沒有必要

It's just necessary or interesting that it might have one good, unique trait.

成為世界上最好的蘋果，感謝上帝。

And for that reason, we ought to be saving it.

它也許包含一個好的，特殊的特性，這就值得引起我們的興趣了。

Why? As a raw material, as a trait we can use in the future.

就為這個原因，我們就應該挽救它。

Think of diversity as giving us options.

為什麼？因為我們在未來可以用到這種特性。

And options, of course, are exactly what we need in an era of climate change.

把多樣性看作是我們的選擇，

I want to show you two slides,

顯然這些選擇正是我們面對氣候變遷所需要的。

but first, I want to tell you that we've been working at the Global Crop Diversity Trust

我想給你們看兩張投影片，

with a number of scientists -- particularly at Stanford and University of Washington --

但是，首先，我想告訴你們，我們是在全球作物多樣性信託機構

to ask the question: What's going to happen to agriculture in an era of climate change

和一些科學家一起工作--他們主要是來自史丹福大學和華盛頓大學--

and what kind of traits and characteristics do we need in our agricultural crops

我們通常會問：在氣候變遷的年代裡，農業會變得怎樣？

to be able to adapt to this?

我們的農作物需要什麼樣的特性和特質

In short, the answer is that in the future, in many countries,

才能適應這個變化？

the coldest growing seasons are going to be hotter

長話短說，答案就是，未來在許多國家裡，

than anything those crops have seen in the past.

目前最冷的生長季節將會變暖、變熱，

The coldest growing seasons of the future,

變得比這些作物過去所遇到的氣候還要熱。

hotter than the hottest of the past.

未來的最冷的生長季節，

Is agriculture adapted to that?

將會變得比過去最熱的季節還要熱。

I don't know. Can fish play the piano?

農作物能適應嗎？

If agriculture hasn't experienced that, how could it be adapted?

我不知道。魚能彈鋼琴嗎？

Now, the highest concentration of poor and hungry people in the world,

如果農作物沒有經歷過這種氣候，又怎麼能夠適應呢？

and the place where climate change, ironically, is going to be the worst

現在，世界上貧窮和饑餓人口最集中的地區，

is in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

諷刺的是，也將會是氣候變化最糟糕的地區，

So I've picked two examples here, and I want to show you.

就在南亞和撒哈拉以南非洲。

In the histogram before you now,

所以，我要挑選兩個例子給你們看，

the blue bars represent the historical range of temperatures,

現在在你面前的長條圖裏，

going back about far as we have temperature data.

藍色的代表著過去的氣溫範圍，

And you can see that there's some difference

記錄著我們有紀錄以來的資料。

between one growing season and another.

你可以看到在每一個生長季節間，

Some are colder, some are hotter and it's a bell shaped curve.

都有一些不同，

The tallest bar is the average temperature for the most number of growing seasons.

有時冷一點，有時熱一點，形成了一個鐘形的曲線。

In the future, later this century, it's going to look like the red,

最長的那條線，代表大部分生長季節的平均溫度。

totally out of bounds.

在未來，這個世紀末期，氣溫會像這些紅色線條一樣，

The agricultural system and, more importantly, the crops in the field in India

完全超出範圍。

have never experienced this before.

我們的農業，最重要的是，在印度農田裏的作物

Here's South Africa. The same story.

從沒有經歷過這些；

But the most interesting thing about South Africa is

這是南非，同樣的情況。

we don't have to wait for 2070 for there to be trouble.

但是在南非，最有趣的事情是，

By 2030, if the maize, or corn, varieties, which is the dominant crop --

我們不用等到2070年才會遇到這些問題。

50 percent of the nutrition in Southern Africa are still in the field --

在2030年，玉蜀黍、玉米的各種品種，也就是主流作物 --

in 2030, we'll have a 30 percent decrease in production of maize

50％的品種還會存在南非的田地裏 --

because of the climate change already in 2030.

在2030年，我們將會遭遇玉米30％的減產，

30 percent decrease of production in the context of increasing population,

因為氣候在2030年時已經變化了。

that's a food crisis. It's global in nature.

30％的糧食減產，但人口卻在增長，

We will watch children starve to death on TV.

這是食物危機，也是全球的問題，

Now, you may say that 20 years is a long way off.

我們將會在電視裏看到兒童們饑餓而死。

It's two breeding cycles for maize.

現在，你也許可以說20年還早得很，

We have two rolls of the dice to get this right.

但這也只不過是兩個玉米育種週期而已。

We have to get climate-ready crops in the field,

我們有兩輪的機會來賭一把，

and we have to do that rather quickly.

我們必須在田裡種植可以適應氣候變遷的農作物，

Now, the good news is that we have conserved.

我們得要快點做。

We have collected and conserved a great deal of biological diversity,

現在，好消息是我們已經開始儲藏了，

agricultural diversity, mostly in the form of seed,

我們已經開始蒐集不同種類的生物、不同品種的農作物，

and we put it in seed banks, which is a fancy way of saying a freezer.

並儲藏起來，大多數是以種子的形態儲存，

If you want to conserve seed for a long term

我們把種子放進種子銀行，其實就是冷藏起來。

and you want to make it available to plant breeders and researchers,

如果你想長時間儲藏種子，

you dry it and then you freeze it.

然後再讓人種入土裡繁殖或研究，

Unfortunately, these seed banks are located around the world in buildings

你得先把種子乾燥後再冷藏。

and they're vulnerable.

不幸的是，這些種子銀行散布在世界各地的一般建築裡，

Disasters have happened. In recent years we lost the gene bank,

很容易出問題。

the seed bank in Iraq and Afghanistan. You can guess why.

災難時有發生。在最近幾年裏，我們失去了在伊拉克和

In Rwanda, in the Solomon Islands.

阿富汗的基因銀行、種子銀行。你們應該知道為什麼。

And then there are just daily disasters that take place in these buildings,

盧安達及所羅門群島的銀行也不保。

financial problems and mismanagement and equipment failures,

還有一些是發生在些建築物裏的日常災難，

and all kinds of things, and every time something like this happens,

像是財務問題、管理不當或設備故障等,

it means extinction. We lose diversity.

這類事件層出不窮，每次只要發生這種災難，

And I'm not talking about losing diversity in the same way that you lose your car keys.

就意味著滅絕，我們又損失了一些品種。

I'm talking about losing it in the same way that we lost the dinosaurs:

我指的損失可不像你們說的丟了車鑰匙一樣，

actually losing it, never to be seen again.

我指的損失是像恐龍消失了一樣，

So, a number of us got together and decided that, you know, enough is enough

真的沒有了，再也看不見了。

and we need to do something about that and we need to have a facility

所以，我們這一群人聚集在一起決定，不能再這樣了，

that can really offer protection for our biological diversity of --

我們必須做些什麼，我們必須建造一個機構，

maybe not the most charismatic diversity.

來保護不同種類的生物--

You don't look in the eyes of a carrot seed quite in the way you do a panda bear,

或許你並不覺得這些物種有什麼了不起。

but it's very important diversity.

你不會用看待貓熊的態度來看待紅蘿蔔，

So we needed a really safe place, and we went quite far north to find it.

但是紅蘿蔔也是重要的品種。

To Svalbard, in fact.

所以我們需要一個真正安全的地方，我們在很北邊找到了這個地方，

This is above mainland Norway. You can see Greenland there.

在斯瓦爾巴。

That's at 78 degrees north.

這是在挪威的上方，你在這裏可以看到格陵蘭島，

It's as far as you can fly on a regularly scheduled airplane.

這是在北緯78度。

It's a remarkably beautiful landscape. I can't even begin to describe it to you.

這是你乘坐民用航空飛機可以飛到的最遠的地方。

It's otherworldly, beautiful.

這是一個十分美麗的地方，我無法用語言來描述，

We worked with the Norwegian government

像世外桃源，真的很美。

and with the NorGen, the Norwegian Genetic Resources Program,

我們和挪威政府、

to design this facility.

挪威基因資源計畫一起合作，

What you see is an artist's conception of this facility,

共同設計這個建築。

which is built in a mountain in Svalbard.

你現在看到的是一個藝術家構想中的建築，

The idea of Svalbard was that it's cold,

建造在斯瓦爾巴山區。

so we get natural freezing temperatures.

會選在這個地點是因為當地很冷，

But it's remote. It's remote and accessible

所以我們就運用了自然的冷藏溫度。

so it's safe and we don't depend on mechanical refrigeration.

但是這個地方很偏僻，偏僻但還算方便到達，

This is more than just an artist's dream, it's now a reality.

所以很安全，而且我們完全不需依靠機械冷藏系統。

And this next picture shows it in context, in Svalbard.

那不僅僅是一個藝術家的夢想，那是真的。

And here's the front door of this facility.

下一張照片是這個在斯瓦爾巴的建築的外部環境。

When you open up the front door,

這是這棟建築的正門，

this is what you're looking at. It's pretty simple. It's a hole in the ground.

當你打開正門後，

It's a tunnel, and you go into the tunnel,

你會看到這個。十分簡單，就是地下的一個洞。

chiseled in solid rock, about 130 meters.

這是一個通道，你可以走進通道裡，

There are now a couple of security doors, so you won't see it quite like this.

這個通道開鑿在岩石裏，大概有130米長。

Again, when you get to the back, you get into an area that's really my favorite place.

現在那裏已經設有安檢哨，所以和你們現在看的會有一點不同。

I think of it as sort of a cathedral.

這是建築物的後面，也是我最喜歡的地方。

And I know that this tags me as a bit of a nerd, but ...

為什麼？我想是因為這就像大教堂一樣。

(Laughter)

我想你們一定認為我是書呆子，但是...

Some of the happiest days of my life have been spent ...

（笑）

(Laughter)

我生命中最美好的幾天，

in this place there.

（笑）

(Applause)

就是在這裏度過的。

If you were to walk into one of these rooms, you would see this.

（掌聲）

It's not very exciting, but if you know what's there, it's pretty emotional.

如果你走進這其中一個房間，你就會看到這個。

We have now about 425,000

不會很令人興奮，但是如果你知道這些是什麼，你會很激動的。

samples of unique crop varieties.

我們現在有大約42萬5千種

There's 70,000 samples of different varieties of rice

不同的作物品種的樣本。

in this facility right now.

在這個建築裏，大約有7萬種

About a year from now, we'll have over half a million samples.

不同的稻米品種樣本。